How behavioral decision research can enhance consumer welfare: From freedom of choice to paternalistic intervention

Decision-making researchers have largely focused on showing errors and biases in consumers' decision-making processes without paying much attention to the social welfare and policy implications of these systematic behaviors. In this paper, we explore how findings and methods in behavioral decision research can be used to help consumers improve their decision making and enhance their well-being. We first review select findings in behavioral decision research to explain why consumers need help in decisions, and based on these findings, suggest various interventions that could be effective within the scope of libertarian paternalism. Ethics and effectiveness of the interventions are also discussed.     

Profit Multiplier in Covered Currency Trading with Leverage

Currency trading, fully hedged with forward contracts and propelled by leverage, is enunciated within a microstructure of trade in foreign exchange with real-time data from Reuters data banks, and verified with banks and exchange dealers, first without and then with transactions costs. It is shown that iterative trading operations compound net profits significantly, and the existing academic maxim on arbitrage is thus raised to a new height—both in terms of theory and practice.     

Is Mean-Variance Analysis Vacuous: Or was Beta Still Born?

We show in any economy trading options, with investors havingmean-variance preferences, that there are arbitrage opportunitiesresulting from negative prices for out of the money call options.The theoretical implication of this inconsistency is that mean-varianceanalysis is vacuous. The practical implications of this inconsistencyare investigated by developing an option pricing model for aCAPM type economy. It is observed that negative call pricesbegin to appear at strikes that are two standard deviationsout of the money. Such out-of-the money options often trade.For near money options, the CAPM option pricing model is shownto permit estimation of the mean return on the underlying asset,its volatility and the length of the planning horizon. The model is estimated on S&P 500 futures options data coveringthe period January 1992–September 1994. It is found thatthe mean rate of return though positive, is poorly identified.The estimates for the volatility are stable and average 11%,while those for the planning horizon average 0.95. The hypothesisthat the planning horizon is a year can not be rejected. Theone parameter Black–Scholes model also marginally outperformsthe three parameter CAPM model with average percentage errorsbeing respectively, 3.74% and 4.5%. This out performance ofthe Black–Scholes model is taken as evidence consistentwith the mean-variance analysis being vacuous in a practicalsense as well.     

Optimum Capital Structure Redefined

Within a dynamic framework of capital growth and income generation, optimum capital structure of a firm is redefined under two alternative hypotheses. By the optimum control theory, it is shown that under conditions of perfect competition optimum equity/debt ratio of a firm can be uniquely determined in intertemporal maximization models of investor behavior. The result is new, but it is juxtaposed in the vast body of existing literature and finally compared with the Lintner-Sau and Modigliani-Miller models.     

On the inconsistency of certain axioms on solution concepts for non-cooperative games

The mutual compatibility of four recently discussed axioms on solution concepts for extensive form games is explored. Two subsets of the axioms are shown to be inconsistent. Our results underline the importance of the information lost in moving from the extensive form to the normal (or agent-normal) form of a game.     

Determinants of the distance between sovereign credit ratings and sub-sovereign bond ratings: Evidence from emerging markets and developing economies

This article explores factors that affect the distance between sovereign credit ratings and the ratings assigned to new foreign-currency bonds issued by sub-sovereign entities (such as private non-financial corporations, financial firms, and public sector enterprises) in 47 emerging markets and developing economies. Censored and double-hurdle regression models are used to estimate the relative contributions of bond-level, issuer-level, and macroeconomic factors that determine this distance, separately for those rated at or below the sovereign rating and those rated above. For the three quarters or more of sub-sovereign bond ratings that are constrained by the sovereign rating ceiling, a Tobit regression model shows a smaller distance – suggesting stronger sovereign–corporate linkages – for public sector enterprises and financial firms relative to other firms. Riskier global financial conditions are also associated with sub-sovereign bonds being rated closer to the sovereign rating. For the small number of sub-sovereign bonds rated higher than the sovereign rating, a double-hurdle model shows that certain debt features – such as bonds backed by future-flow receivables or other collateral or structured as Special Purpose Vehicles (SPV) – significantly raise the likelihood of piercing the sovereign rating ceiling and also increase the distance above the sovereign ceiling.     

Two price economies in continuous time

Static and discrete time pricing operators for two price economies are reviewed and then generalized to the continuous time setting of an underlying Hunt process. The continuous time operators define nonlinear partial integro–differential equations that are solved numerically for the three valuations of bid, ask and expectation. The operators employ concave distortions by inducing a probability into the infinitesimal generator of a Hunt process. This probability is then distorted. Two nonlinear operators based on different approaches to truncating small jumps are developed and termed $QV$ for quadratic variation and $NL$ for normalized Lévy. Examples illustrate the resulting valuations. A sample book of derivatives on a single underlier is employed to display the gap between the bid and ask values for the book and the sum of comparable values for the components of the book.     

Multinational Corporations and the Transforming Operational Environment in China

China and the multinational corporations (MNCs) have had a long period of close relationship. In locating operations in China, MNCs beneficially followed the principle of least‐cost location. However, China's economic and business environment has been undergoing a striking transformation. The Chinese economy is losing some of its beneficial emerging‐market traits. Many foreign business enterprises and MNCs have experienced deep erosion of profits. This article first focuses on the growing importance of China and the Chinese markets for foreign business firms and MNCs. The sheer size of the market naturally draws them in. Next, it dwells on the challenges that have evolved over the years and the budding new business environment, often referred to as “the new normal.” Many MNCs realize the need to adapt to the new operating environment in China. This article proposes a list of adaptive and coping measures for the foreign enterprises and MNCs. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.