Heterogeneity of the determinants of euro-area sovereign bond spreads; what does it tell us about financial stability?

In this paper, we assess the movements of euro area sovereign bond yield spreads vis-à-vis the German Bund as processes specified across different levels of volatility and subject to movements in asset prices and economic conditions. The determinants we use are grouped into domestic and euro-area aggregates, thus allowing us to derive results on their relative explanatory power and compare them across time and the spectrum of countries. We find that volatility influences the deterministic processes of the euro area sovereign spreads and that identical determinants have effects on spreads that vary considerably across countries. Furthermore, we find that variables reflecting investment confidence conditions and perceptions for the upcoming economic activity are significant determinants and their significance remains, to a large extent, even when controlling for fiscal variables.     

A CDS approach to induce facilities-based competition over NGA networks

The current regulatory framework in the European NGA market provides the basic principles for the gradual migration from service-based competition over the legacy copper access networks to facilities-based competition over fiber-based Next Generation Access (NGA) networks. This paper initially reviews the related literature and shows that: (i) an unbundling policy that boosts entry by alternative operators promotes service-based competition but provides operators with disincentives to invest in network upgrade; (ii) there is no consensus about the optimal regulatory policy that promotes competition and encourages investments in NGA networks; and (iii) the reviewed research articles are not consistent with the current regulatory framework in the European NGA market in terms of both the evolution of the regulatory goals over time and the recommended regulatory settings. This paper aims to propose a novel approach in order to effectively meet the current regulatory goals using the recommended settings. It is shown that the proposed approach, which is based on the basic principles governing a Credit Default Swap (CDS), provides an effective migration path towards facilities-based competition over NGA networks.     

Individual investors and social ownership structures in the UK before the 1930s: Joint holdings and trustee investment

After the introduction of limited liability, a growing number of individuals in Britain from a widening social spectrum, including the less affluent, began to own stocks and shares. Drawing upon a unique and large dataset of 35 848 investors between 1870 and 1935, this study analyses joint holdings which have been a neglected aspect of investor behaviour. Our findings reveal that joint holdings were quite common and that about one in five UK investors were involved in a joint investment. Men were more likely to be joint holders than women for reasons related to institutions of social ownership such as trusts and executorships.     

BAYESIAN DYNAMIC VARIABLE SELECTION IN HIGH DIMENSIONS

This article addresses the issue of inference in time-varying parameter regression models in the presence of many predictors and develops a novel dynamic variable selection strategy. The proposed variational Bayes dynamic variable selection algorithm allows for assessing at each time period in the sample which predictors are relevant (or not) for forecasting the dependent variable. The algorithm is used to forecast inflation using over 400 macroeconomic, financial, and global predictors, many of which are potentially irrelevant or short-lived. The new methodology is able to ensure parsimonious solutions to this high-dimensional estimation problem, which translate into excellent forecast performance.