Unit root testing via the stationary bootstrap

A nonparametric, residual-based stationary bootstrap procedure is proposed for unit root testing in a time series. The procedure generates a pseudoseries which mimics the original, but ensures the presence of a unit root. Unlike many others in the literature, the proposed test is valid for a wide class of weakly dependent processes and is not based on parametric assumptions on the data-generating process. Large sample theory is developed and asymptotic validity is shown via a bootstrap functional central limit theorem. The case of a least squares statistic is discussed in detail, including simulations to investigate the procedure's finite sample performance.     

Does a non-linear mean reverting process characterize real GDP movements?

This paper uses non-linear models to investigate non-stationarity of real GDP per capita for seven OECD countries over the period 1900–2000. Unit root tests based on non-linear models are more powerful than traditional ADF statistics in rejecting the null unit root hypothesis. Empirical results show that, contrary to what the linear ADF statistics suggest, stationarity characterizes five out of the seven countries. This finding stands at variance with other recent studies which conclude that movements in real GDP per capita can be characterized as a non-stationary process.

Excess corporate payouts and financial distress risk

Firms that follow excessive payout policies (over-payers) are higher on the financial distress spectrum and have lower survival rates than under-payers. In addition, over-payers endure lower future sales and asset growth than under-payers and experience negative abnormal returns in the bond and stock markets. Exogenous import tariff reductions and commodity price jumps reduce the likelihood of overpayment. We interpret this as evidence consistent with financial flexibility considerations, rather than risk-shifting, explaining the decision to overpay. We also find that CEO overconfidence and catering incentives affect overpayment.     

Testing the forward rate unbiasedness hypothesis during the 1920s

This paper reexamines the forward rate unbiasedness hypothesis (FRUH) during the 1920s and it contributes to the literature as follows: first, it utilizes a database that includes currencies not studied before, as well as the 3 month forward rates; second, it applies three different approaches to test for cointegration and it shows that the choice of the technique is not of crucial importance; third, it tests for the temporal stability of the cointegration results; finally, it tests for the existence of the FRUH in the short run, by means of error correction models, whereas previous studies focused on cointegrated vectors only. Our analysis shows that for countries that did not undergo major financial turmoil during that period, there exists more favorable evidence for the FRUH.     

Capital structure,equity ownership and firm performance

This paper investigates the relationship between capital structure, ownership structure and firm performance using a sample of French manufacturing firms. We employ non-parametric data envelopment analysis (DEA) methods to empirically construct the industry’s ‘best practice’ frontier and measure firm efficiency as the distance from that frontier. Using these performance measures we examine if more efficient firms choose more or less debt in their capital structure. We summarize the contrasting effects of efficiency on capital structure in terms of two competing hypotheses: the efficiency-risk and franchise-value hypotheses. Using quantile regressions we test the effect of efficiency on leverage and thus the empirical validity of the two competing hypotheses across different capital structure choices. We also test the direct relationship from leverage to efficiency stipulated by the Jensen and Meckling (1976) agency cost model. Throughout this analysis we consider the role of ownership structure and type on capital structure and firm performance.     

Long-run relations among equity indices under different market conditions: Implications on the implementation of statistical arbitrage strategies

Compared with previous research, the present work extends existing literature by considering long-run relations among major international stock market indices, under different market conditions, and the implications of these relations on the implementation of statistical arbitrage strategies. The examined data contain two bust phases interrupted by a mild bullish period. Employing cointegration analysis, reported results initially indicate that changes in market performance affect the stability of long-run relations, therefore suggesting that arbitrageurs should perform rebalancing among the examined indices when a change in a market trend is evident. Furthermore, extreme market performance harms the mean-reverting properties of a potential long-run relation while moderate market performance points to cointegration between a pair of indices. However, the absence of a stationary spread does not suggest the potential of abnormal returns realization, in the short-run, through exploitation of deviations from its mean value. The applicability of our results may be of importance to market participants since the cointegration approach has recently received considerable attention by hedge funds adopting statistical arbitrage strategies.     

Globalisation and/or Europeanisation? The Case of Flexicurity

The relationship between globalisation and Europeanisation is conventionally studied by focusing on the domestic level. In this article we explore this relationship at the international level instead. We examine the way in which the two phenomena in the form of the ILO and the EU relate to one another. Adopting a discursive institutionalist approach and focusing on flexicurity, we investigate whether, how and under what conditions the discourse on flexicurity provides a point of convergence or divergence between globalisation and Europeanisation. Our empirical data reveals attempts by the European Commission to use globalisation as a legitimating device for a market-accommodating programme for labour market reform. The ILO remains more sceptical, both about the overall effects of globalisation and the more concrete uses of flexicurity. Meanwhile, the concept of flexicurity is subject to change and rearticulation in line with the evolving policy agenda endorsed by the Commission and/or the member states. The relationship between Europe and globalisation is thus far from neutral. ‘Europe’ is active in shaping globalisation; translated into the work undertaken here, Europeanisation could be conceived as a facet of globalisation rather than as a bulwark to it, or merely as a process running parallel to it.     

Is productive inefficiency a fatal disease? The effects of technical and scale efficiency in firm exit: the case of the Greek rubber and plastic industry

This article presents an integrated framework for testing the effects of productive efficiency, i.e. technical efficiency (TE) and scale efficiency (SE), on firm exit, facilitating the identification of the effects, causing a firm's operation at increasing or decreasing returns to scale. A panel data set of firms in the plastics and rubber industry of the Greek manufacturing sector is used to study the effect that TE and SE may have on a firm's probability to exit. Results reveal that technical efficiency is the most critical factor influencing firm exit, while SE exerts a quadratic effect on the probability to exit.     

Hilferding on derivatives

Abstract

Rudolf Hilferding has always been regarded as a leading Marxist scholar. His theoretical intervention is still considered to be benchmark in Political Economy. Nevertheless, Hilferding's approach to derivatives has been left untouched. The aim of this paper is precisely to fill this gap in the literature. Hilferding realised that the development of the stock exchange was indeed parallel to another important event: the emergence of standardised derivative exchanges; he underlined their economic significance for the organisation of capitalism. In spite of how one appraises the final outcome of his analysis, the intention to incorporate futures markets in his general approach and to analyse them using Marxian theoretical categories is quite exceptional in the long tradition of political economy.