FORECASTING INFLATION USING DYNAMIC MODEL AVERAGING*

We forecast quarterly US inflation based on the generalized Phillips curve using econometric methods that incorporate dynamic model averaging. These methods not only allow for coefficients to change over time, but also allow for the entire forecasting model to change over time. We find that dynamic model averaging leads to substantial forecasting improvements over simple benchmark regressions and more sophisticated approaches such as those using time varying coefficient models. We also provide evidence on which sets of predictors are relevant for forecasting in each period.     

REVISITING THE REAL WAGES–UNEMPLOYMENT RELATIONSHIP. NEW RESULTS FROM NON-LINEAR MODELS

We examine the long-run real wages–unemployment relationship for five OECD countries over the period 1960:1–2001:4. Given the theoretical possibility of non-linear equilibrium due to downward real wage rigidity we employ econometric tests that allow for the presence of non-linearities in the long-run equilibrium. We adopt the notion of 'hidden co-integration' suggested by Granger and Yoon . This methodology has several advantages with respect to other non-linear models. We find statistical evidence that, in general, there is a long-run positive relation between real wages and unemployment only when both are affected by positive shocks. We also find a negative relationship between unemployment and productivity. The empirical analysis is complemented with the estimation of error correction models for all countries.     

ON THE SOURCES OF UNCERTAINTY IN EXCHANGE RATE PREDICTABILITY

In a unified framework, we examine four sources of uncertainty in exchange rate forecasting models: (i) random variations in the data, (ii) estimation uncertainty, (iii) uncertainty about the degree of time variation in coefficients, and (iv) uncertainty regarding the choice of the predictor. We find that models that embed a high degree of coefficient variability yield forecast improvements at horizons beyond one month. At the one‐month horizon, and apart from the standard variance implied by unpredictable fluctuations in the data, the second and third sources of uncertainty listed above are key obstructions to predictive ability. The uncertainty regarding the choice of the predictors is negligible.     

The role of productive efficiency on entry and post‐entry performance under different strategic orientation: the case of the Greek plastics and rubber industry

The present study formulates and empirically tests the hypothesis that the post‐entry performance and growth of new firms is affected by the way in which crucial resources are combined during the decision‐making process to enter the industry or not. Further, the study empirically tests the hypothesis that multifaceted productive efficiency influences both the entry decision and the entrants' post‐entry performance. The proposed analytical framework allows for testing these hypotheses under different strategic orientations assumed to be followed by entrants. Results of the estimated partial observability model provide support to these hypotheses in almost all of the examined cases. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The Abrams curve of government size and unemployment: evidence from panel data

This study investigates the long run relationship between government size and unemployment rate, the Abrams curve, using ten European countries over the period 1961–1999. To this end, panel cointegration analysis and estimation techniques appropriate for heterogeneous panels are made use of. The results support the idea that there is an Abrams curve, and the relation between government size and the unemployment rate is positive.     

Dynamic factor demands under imperfect competition: the Greek manufucturing industry 1958–1981

The intertemporal maximization problem of the firm under adjustment costs for its factors of production and imperfect competition in the output market is considered. The first-order conditions, with respect to capital and labour, the production function and the demand equation have been jointly estimated using Greek manufacturing data and values for the structural parameters have been obtained. The estimates are plausible and most of them significant. Tests of the overidentifying restirctions are unable to reject the overall specification of the model at conventional levels of significance.     

Acquisitions,Overconfident Managers and Self‐attribution Bias

We examine whether acquisitions by overconfident managers generate superior abnormal returns and whether managerial overconfidence stems from self‐attribution. Self‐attribution bias suggests that overconfidence plays a greater role in higher order acquisition deals predicting lower wealth effects for higher order acquisition deals. Using two alternative measures of overconfidence (1) high order acquisition deals and (2) insider dealings we find evidence supporting the view that average stock returns are related to managerial overconfidence. Overconfident bidders realise lower announcement returns than rational bidders and exhibit poor long‐term performance. Second, we find that managerial overconfidence stems from self‐attribution bias. Specifically, we find that high‐order acquisitions (five or more deals within a three‐year period) are associated with lower wealth effects than low‐order acquisitions (first deals). That is, managers tend to credit the initial success to their own ability and therefore become overconfident and engage in more deals. In our analysis we control for endogeneity of the decision to engage in high‐order acquisitions and find evidence that does not support the self‐selection of excessive acquisitive firms. Our analysis is robust to the influence of merger waves, industry shocks, and macroeconomic conditions.     

Corporate Social Responsibility and Employee Outcomes: Interrelations of External and Internal Orientations with Job Satisfaction and Organizational Commitment

Journal of Business Ethics - We bring together social identity and social exchange perspectives to develop and test a moderated mediation model that sheds light on employees’ perceptions...     

Escapism FDI from developed economies: The role of regulatory context and corporate taxation

In this paper, we extend the conceptualisation of escapism Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) holding for emerging economies to developed economies that face specific institutional failures, such as weak or incomplete regulations, along with high taxation. We combine this literature with the recent development of Dunning’s eclectic paradigm, which includes institutional aspects regarding location factors. We argue that in developed economies with problematic regulations and high taxation, sound institutions and lower tax rates abroad are extremely significant for domestic firms’ internationalisation. A central result regards the moderating effect of host regulatory quality on taxation, which highlights the crucial role of institutions for firms originating in developed economies that lack sound institutions. Additionally, the results challenge the available theorising and evidence on the moderating role of institutions in the prior experience of a firm at a location. We instead provide evidence that once firms establish a subsidiary abroad, they acquire substantial knowledge about the host institutional environment, which translates into an Ot advantage, providing an additional motive for further expansion. This work uses a unique database of the total population of Greek MNEs – released for the first time – for an extended time period, 2001–2010. The results could be generalised to similar developed economies facing analogous regulatory failures and high taxation, such as the southern European Union countries, as well as even for northern European Union countries, such as Germany, according to Bundesbank’s report.     

Is Moderate Market Performance in the U.S. a Sufficient Condition for Abnormal Returns on CEFs?

In this project, our topic pertains to examination of market efficiency, employing data from closed-end funds (CEFs) trading in the American stock market. Employing both aggregate and individual data, we examine whether or not moderate market performance is a sufficient condition in order to achieve abnormal returns, in the short-run, through exploitation of discount deviations from its mean value. The main hypothesis tested is that market performance affects the mean-reverting properties of CEFs’ discount. Moderate market performance ensures the mean-reversion of CEFs’ discount and points to cointegration between the share prices of CEFs and their net asset value (NAV). Furthermore, when NAV is identified as the common stochastic trend of the system then, market inefficiency is detected.