Cointegration Tests Of The Monetary Exchange Rate Model: The Canadian—U.S. Dollar, 1970 – 1994

Using data on the Canadian-U.S. dollar rate, we reexamine the monetary model of exchange-rate determination for the recent float in three ways. First, we test its long-run validity, using Johansen's multivariate cointegration techniques. Second, we examine and test the model for the presence of speculative bubble, and finally we test for parameter stability of Johansen's results using the Hanse-Johansen recursive tests. [F31]     

Interrogating Sickonomics,from Diagnosis to Cure: A Response to Hodgson

Hodgson's review of our books argues against us that marginalism neither adopted methodological individualism nor excluded the social from economics. Thus, he finds a partial solution to sickonomics in abandoning the term methodological individualism and using both structures and individuals as analytical starting point(s), revisiting Marshallian marginalism dressed up in socio-institutional clothing. He also denies any relationship between the current malaise in economics and the marginal revolution, as we claim, focusing exclusively on institutional developments since the Second World War. We show Hodgson is either partial or wrong on all of these counts. Firstly, his alternative to methodological individualism is untenable. Secondly, institutions, although implicitly present in Marshallian and Walrasian economics, play no substantive analytical role and as such are superfluous. Finally, although institutional factors help explain the sickness of modern economics (in addition to socioeconomic, ideological, political, and intellectual factors), the intellectual roots of this decay lie in the conceptual framework established around the marginal revolution.     

Productivity growth and inflation in Europe: Evidence from panel cointegration tests

In this paper we investigate the productivity growth – inflation nexus in fifteen European countries over the period 1961–1999 using panel unit root and panel cointegration tests. Emphasis is placed on the distinction between long-run and short-run causality using recently developed tests appropriate for heterogeneous panel. The empirical results are relevant for the role of the EMU and the Treaty of Maastricht in catching up, real convergence, and the future growth prospects of Europe. The policy implications of the findings are discussed in detail.     

The chief executive officer as corporate champion of technological innovation: aii empirical investigation

Research on innovation has engoged the attention of many scientific disciplines over the past few decades. But while some categories of determining factors (mainly organizational and environmental) are at the centre of this research, others, such as the role and significance of strategic leadership, seem to have received much less empirical attention. Using evidence from a sample of 97 manufacturing enterprises, the present study tests a model of the impact of strategic leadership and corporate context on technological innovatin (TT). The personality and demographic characteristics of chief executive officers (CEis') are used to measure strategic leadership. A number of environmental and internal organizational variables measure the broader context. Four dimensions of TI are measured. Results suggest that CEO characteristics significantly influence TI, but the structural and environmental context is on aggregate more influential. Interestingly though, in new product introductions, CEIs' characteristics outweight environmental and internal organizational factors.     

UK macroeconomic forecasting with many predictors: Which models forecast best and when do they do so?

Block factor methods offer an attractive approach to forecasting with many predictors. These extract the information in these predictors into factors reflecting different blocks of variables (e.g. a price block, a housing block, a financial block, etc.). However, a forecasting model which simply includes all blocks as predictors risks being over-parameterized. Thus, it is desirable to use a methodology which allows for different parsimonious forecasting models to hold at different points in time. In this paper, we use dynamic model averaging and dynamic model selection to achieve this goal. These methods automatically alter the weights attached to different forecasting models as evidence comes in about which has forecast well in the recent past. In an empirical study involving forecasting output growth and inflation using 139 UK monthly time series variables, we find that the set of predictors changes substantially over time. Furthermore, our results show that dynamic model averaging and model selection can greatly improve forecast performance relative to traditional forecasting methods.     

Promoting energy efficiency policies over the information barrier

Stakeholders argue that the information barrier is the major obstacle restricting firms from adopting Energy Efficiency Technologies (EETs) in Europe. The present work examines the processes of information gathering as regards to EETs and explores the factors affecting the level of acquired information by EET adopters. Empirical evidence is provided by a data set of Greek manufacturing firms which have adopted EETs. In conclusion, we propose appropriate policy measures able to promote the adoption of EETs by overcoming the information barrier.     

Insider trading and future stock returns in firms with concentrated ownership levels

We investigate the relationship between insider trading and stock returns in firms with concentrated ownership. To this end, we employ data from East Asian countries which span the period January 2003 to May 2012. Consistent with the previous literature, we find a significantly negative relation between the selling activity of insiders and stock returns. However, contrary to studies which focus on highly developed markets, we find that the buying activity of insiders is also inversely related to future stock returns. Our analysis shows that top directors with higher ownership levels drive this result, suggesting that the trading activity of insiders is not always associated with profit-making motives and can be explained by their level of ownership. Furthermore, we demonstrate that a trading strategy which focuses solely on purchases made by top directors with high ownership levels yields negative returns. The paper has important implications for outside investors who mimic the trading activity of insiders with the aim to realise profits.     

Gains from Mergers and Acquisitions Around the World: New Evidence

Using a global M&A data set, this paper provides evidence that the empirical observations relating public acquisitions to, at best, zero abnormal returns, and their stock-financed subset to negative abnormal returns for acquiring firms around the deal announcement are not unanimous across countries. Acquirers beyond the most competitive takeover markets (the United States, United Kingdom, and Canada) pay lower premia and realize gains, while share-for-share offers are at least non-value-destroying for their shareholders. In contrast, target shareholders within these markets gain significantly less, implying that the benefits generated are more evenly split between the involved parties.     

Approximate basket option valuation for a simplified jump process

This study proposes the use of a simplified jump process, namely the Bernoulli jump process, to develop approximate basket option valuation formulas. The proposed model is based on a more realistic stochastic process—relative to the standard geometric Brownian motion—without introducing additional intractability. Typical approximations, necessary for the development of the closed form formulas, are validated on the basis of a Monte Carlo experiment. © 2007 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 27:819–837, 2007     

Process-oriented knowledge management systems based on KM-services: the PROMOTE® approach

This article describes the PROMOTE^® approach, to define and implement a Service-Based Enterprise Knowledge Management System (E-KMS) that has been developed during the EC-funded project PROMOTE (IST-1999-11658). The aim is to define a modelling language that is used to analyse, document and implement an E-KMS on the basis of so-called Knowledge Management Processes (KMPs). KMPs define the knowledge interaction between knowledge workers in a process-oriented manner and consists of activities that are supported by knowledge management key actions (KA) like searching, categorising or storing information. These knowledge management key actions are supported by Knowledge Management Services (KM-Service). The prototype of PROMOTE^® is briefly mentioned to discuss the KMP-models and the service based E-KMS. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.