Auch Senioren zeigen Zähne

Zahnpflege im Alter - Zuerst die gute Nachricht: Pflegebedürftige Menschen haben heute mehr Z?hne als früher. Aber: Mit der Zunahme der Zahnzahlen steigt das allgemeine Erkrankungsrisiko und damit der pflegerische Aufwand. Kann man dem wirksam vorbeugen?     

The autumn effect of gold

This paper studies recurring annual events potentially introducing seasonality into gold prices. We analyze gold returns for each month from 1980 to 2010 and find that September and November are the only months with positive and statistically significant gold price changes. This “autumn effect” holds unconditionally and conditional on several risk factors. We argue that the anomaly can be explained with hedging demand by investors in anticipation of the “Halloween effect” in the stock market, wedding season gold jewelery demand in India and negative investor sentiment due to shorter daylight time. The autumn effect can also be characterized by a higher unconditional and conditional volatility than in other seasons.     

Options as a predictor of common stock price changes

Since rather novel techniques such as neural nets allow investigation of nonlinear model specification previously untested, it may be that traditional models of price formation underperform through misspecification rather than market efficiency. This paper explores whether a multilayer backpropagation model offers exploitable profit opportunities for some limited period. Using an intradaytransaction dataset obtained from the European Options Exchange (Amsterdam), We attempted to predict the return on Philips. Two neural nets are contrasted to ordinary linear regression analysis on the basis of three benchmarks (MSE, and net realized returns). An adaptively trained 33-14-1 architecture scored best on all criteria and yielded an annualized 11% return following a simple one-period trading strategy.     

Systemic risk and diversification across European banks and insurers

The mutual and cross company exposures to fat-tail distributed risks determine the potential impact of a financial crisis on banks and insurers. We examine the systemic interdependencies within and across the European banking and insurance sectors during times of stress by means of extreme value analysis. While insurers exhibit a slightly higher interdependency in comparison with banks, the interdependency across the two sectors turns out to be considerably lower. This suggests that downside risk can be lowered through financial conglomeration.     

The Liquidity of Property Shares: An International Comparison

This article investigates the magnitude and determinates of share liquidity over the 1990–2007 period in the world's four largest securitized real estate markets: the United States, the United Kingdom, Continental Europe and Australia. We document a significant and consistent role for market capitalization, nonretail share ownership and dividend yield as drivers of liquidity across markets. We also document significant differences in liquidity across countries and between property and nonproperty companies. Also striking is the lack of correlation among our three measures of liquidity across property firms and time. This supports the notion that share price liquidity is multifaceted and therefore reliance on any one measure of liquidity in empirical work may produce misleading conclusions. Although we find some evidence of a connection between liquidity and firm value, it is less conclusive than prior studies.     

Corporate entrepreneurship initiatives: Antagonizing cognitive biases in business model design

Entrepreneurs designing novel business model configurations face cognitive biases that derive from limited mental capacity to deal with complex and uncertain decision contexts. Building on the notion of the business model as an idiosyncratic mental representation that organizes managerial understanding of value creating and value capture, we investigate how entrepreneurs cope with cognitive biases inherent in business model design. We conducted a total of 35 in‐depth interviews with entrepreneurs situated in 15 corporate entrepreneurship initiatives in Germany. Our study results suggest that entrepreneurs counter cognitive biases by combining intuitive and deliberate reasoning approaches. Specifically, we identify five cognitive mechanisms and two higher level cognitive processes undergirding entrepreneurial reasoning in the design of new business models. Our findings provide empirically grounded insights into the cognitive perspective in business model research and help to theorize managerial reasoning during the process of business model design.     

How Firms Develop Capabilities for Crowdsourcing to Increase Open Innovation Performance: The Interplay between Organizational Roles and Knowledge Processes

In recent years, crowdsourcing has emerged as a promising open innovation strategy for firms searching for solutions to technical problems. Previous research has shown that crowdsourcing can provide quick access to distant knowledge at relatively low costs, when compared to other forms of innovation governance such as internal sourcing or contract research. Recent studies, however, indicate that firms differ considerably in their ability to reap the benefits from crowdsourcing. Drawing upon recent work on the microfoundations of capabilities, we hypothesize how three types of lower level organizational elements may affect gains from crowdsourcing: informal organizational roles, formal organizational roles, and knowledge processes. Following a mixed‐method research design and drawing on rich quantitative and qualitative data, we find that informal and formal organizational roles work through processes of knowledge articulation and codification in developing a firm’s crowdsourcing capability. By going beyond the direct effects of the three antecedents, our research sheds light on the process of capability development for open innovation.     

The Market Timing Ability of UK Mutual Funds

Abstract:  We apply a recent nonparametric methodology to test the market timing skills of UK equity and balanced mutual funds. The methodology has a number of advantages over the widely used regression based tests of Treynor-Mazuy (1966) and Henriksson-Merton (1981) . We find a relatively small number of funds (around 1%) demonstrate positive market timing ability at a 5% significance level while around 19% of funds exhibit negative timing and on average funds miss-time the market. However, controlling for publicly available information we find very little evidence of market timing ability based on private timing signals. In terms of investment styles, there are a small number of successful positive market timers amongst Equity Income and 'All Company' funds but not among either Small Stock funds or Balanced funds, although a few small stock funds are found to time a small stock index rather than a broad market index.     

The Impact of Terrorist Attacks on International Stock Markets

We examine the effects of terrorist attacks on stock markets, using a dataset that covers all significant events and that directly relate to the major economies of the world. Our event study suggests that terrorist attacks produce mildly negative price effects. We compare these price reactions to those from an alternative type of unanticipated disaster, earthquakes, and find that price declines following terror attacks are more pronounced. However, in both cases prices rebound within the first week of the aftermath. We also compare price responses internationally and for separate industries, and find that reactions are strongest for local markets and for industries that are directly affected by the attack. Our results suggest that financial markets react strongly to terror events but then recover swiftly and soon return to business as usual. The September 11th attacks turn out to be the only event that caused long‐term effects on financial markets, especially in terms of industries' systematic risk.     

An empirical test of Birkett’s competency model for management accountants: Survey evidence from Dutch practitioners

In 2002, the Accountants-in-Business section of the International Federation of Accountants (IFAC) issued the Competency Profiles for Management Accounting Practice and Practitioners report. This “Birkett Report” presents a framework for competency development during the careers of management accountants (MAs). On the basis of this theoretical report, a hypothesis has been formulated about the sequence in which each of 38 competencies is expected to become important to the MA during his/her career. Results presented here show that practicing MAs see the same sequence of competencies during their careers as is presented in the theoretical framework, supporting Birkett’s competency model. The results indicate that there may be three groups of competencies: basic, advanced, and highly advanced. It may be said that the basic competencies need to be present at graduation. The advanced competencies may need to be present some years after the start of the MAs career. The highly advanced skills may be needed for Chief Financial Officer (CFO) candidates. These results suggest that advanced and highly advanced competencies are those that could be taught in continuing professional education (CPE) programs, while university education programs should focus on developing basic competencies.