主题公园游客流稳定性测评——以深圳华侨城为例

保持稳定的游客流是提高主题公园经营业绩和管理绩效、延长主题公园生命周期的有效途径之一。本文从主题公园自身特点出发,构建了主题公园游客流稳定性驱动模型,建立了主题公园游客流稳定性测评体系,并以深圳华侨城为例,通过因子分析和结构方程分析,对景区的游客流稳定性进行测评,分析各综合变量对游客流稳定性的驱动作用的大小以及变量之间的相互影响关系,为主题公园调控游客流稳定性提供参考依据。     

Inconsistency of the MLE and inference based on weighted LS for LARCH models

This paper considers a class of finite-order autoregressive linear ARCH models. The model captures the leverage effect, allows the volatility to be arbitrarily close to zero and to reach its minimum for non-zero innovations, and is appropriate for long memory modeling when infinite orders are allowed. However, the (quasi-)maximum likelihood estimator is, in general, inconsistent. A self-weighted least-squares estimator is proposed and is shown to be asymptotically normal. A score test for conditional homoscedasticity and diagnostic portmanteau tests are developed. Their performance is illustrated via simulation experiments. It is also investigated whether stock market returns exhibit some of the characteristic features of the linear ARCH model.     

Droht eine Immobilienpreisblase in Deutschland?

Since 2009, real estate prices in Germany have been rising rapidly after a period of stagnation during the Great Recession. This raises the question of whether the recent price increases are fundamentally driven or rather an indication of a real estate bubble in Germany. To tackle this question, we take a look at several real estate demand-side indicators. As real estate bubbles sometimes form in certain sub-segments of the real estate market only, the authors also conduct a disaggregate analysis by looking at different real estate types in Germany’s most important metropolitan areas. In what follows, we investigate the relation of real estate prices and rents and test for explosive behaviour of the price-generating processes. Our findings suggest that the recent upswing in the German real estate market seems to be based on fundamental factors. Except for the sub-segment of flats in some of the metropolitan areas, there is no evidence for price increases being unsustainable.     

Developing a quality prioritization procedure for IPTV service

This study developed a procedure to determine the quality priorities of the internet protocol television (IPTV) service. First, a set of key elements of IPTV service quality was developed based on a literature review and a focus group interview. Second, analytic hierarchy process and the Kano model were applied to identify the requirements of experts and customers, respectively. The experts measured the importance and difficulty of management, whereas the customers measured the satisfaction level and importance of each quality element. Third, quality priorities were calculated through the entropy principle and scenario-based analysis. The proposed procedure is illustrated with a case study of a telecommunications company in Korea.     

Consumers' awareness,acceptance and attitudes towards functional foods in Turkey

The aim of the present study was to investigate consumers' awareness, acceptance and attitudes towards functional foods in Turkey. Eight hundred and eight people participated in this study: aged between 20 and 80 years, 38.5% were male and 61.5% were female. Participants were given a questionnaire and were asked to fill it in by themselves to minimize the influence of the interviewer. Results indicated that socio‐demographic characteristics such as age, education level and income level are important indicators of consumers' awareness and consumption of functional food. The results show that the female respondents were 2.987 times more aware of functional food than the male respondents. Similarly, the likelihood of respondents having awareness of functional food was 1.431 times greater among those who had a higher educational level than among those with a lower educational level. Consumers who used vitamin supplements were 1.228 times more aware of functional food than other consumers. The results show that older respondents were 3.395 times more aware of functional food than younger respondents. Respondents with a history of familial diseases were more likely than others to have consumed margarine with plant sterol, fruit juices fortified with vitamin C, and breakfast cereals fortified with vitamins and minerals. Those with a diet‐related problem were more likely to have consumed cholesterol‐lowering products than those without a problem. As a conclusion, this study has shown that socio‐demographic characteristics such as age, education and income levels, and prices are important indicators that influence consumers' awareness and consumption of functional food. These results suggest that this type of knowledge could affect consumers' interest in functional foods, and therefore educational strategies might be necessary to encourage the consumption of functional foods.     

How Sensitive Is Investment to Cash Flow When Financing Is Frictionless?

I analyze the sensitivity of a firm's investment to its own cash flow in the benchmark case where financing is frictionless. This sensitivity has been proposed as a measure of financing constraints in earlier studies. I find that the investment–cash flow sensitivities that obtain in the frictionless benchmark are very similar, both in magnitude and in patterns they exhibit, to those observed in the data. In particular, the sensitivity is higher for firms with high growth rates and low dividend payout ratios. Tobin's q is shown to be a more noisy measure of near-term investment plans for these firms.     

The Effects of Four Dimensions of Strategic Orientation on Firm Innovativeness and Performance in Emerging Market Small- and Medium-Size Enterprises

We investigate the effects of technology, entrepreneurial, market, and learning orientations on firm innovativeness, and the mediating effect of firm innovativeness on these relationships, using a survey of 374 small- and medium-size enterprises in Korea. The results reveal that, while technology, entrepreneurial, and learning orientations significantly influence firm innovativeness, firm innovativeness has a significant effect on firm performance. We also find that firm innovativeness has a statistically significant mediating role in the relationships of technology, entrepreneurial, and learning orientations to firm performance. Our study contributes to strategic management and emerging market literature by identifying the pivotal role of innovativeness for firms that seek to benefit from various types of strategic orientations.     

Islamic Economics in the Late Ottoman Empire: Menâpirzâde Nuri Bey's Mebâhis-i İlm-i Servet

The existing literature on Islamic economics suggests that Islamic economics is a twentieth-century phenomenon with its roots in medieval Islamic intellectual and theological history, thereby leaving a centuries-long gap in the history of Islamic economic thinking. This study aims at taking a first step towards filling this gap by examining a nineteenth-century example of Islamic economics in late Ottoman economic literature. Suggesting a broader definition of Islamic economics, this article investigates a prominent Ottoman intellectual's efforts to define, reveal, and revive a tradition of Islamic economics in historical and intellectual context.     

Changes in Global Trade Patterns and Women's Employment in Manufacturing, 1995–2011

This study investigates the feminization and defeminization trends in manufacturing employment in thirty countries from 1995 to 2011. Utilizing two separate methods, structural decomposition analysis (SDA) and factor content analysis (FCA), the study identifies the major industries and trade partners behind the structural shifts in trade that have induced changes in employment and thus in the rates of women’s employment. The findings highlight that, as a general trend, defeminization in manufacturing has persisted in the Global North, led by a negative trade impact in low-technology industries. In the Global South, feminization and defeminization trends are not as straightforward. Despite positive changes in women’s share of employment in medium-high- and high-technology industries, negative gender bias effects of trade changes are found particularly in high-technology industries, where occupations are notably gendered.     

Oil Prices, Terms of Trade Shocks, and Macroeconomic Fluctuations in Saudi Arabia

The article investigates the sources of macroeconomic fluctuations in Saudi Arabia using structural vector autoregression methods and pays particular attention to oil prices and changes in terms of trade. Using a macroeconomic model tailored to the Saudi Arabian economy, the authors identify terms of trade, supply, balance of payments, aggregate demand, and monetary shocks. The results show that the Saudi Arabian price level, real exchange rate, and to a lesser extent output is vulnerable to terms of trade shocks. Moreover, Saudi Arabian terms of trade are driven by output, trade balance, and aggregate demand shocks. To stabilize output and the real exchange rate, Saudi Arabia ought to continue diversifying its production base and aim for a stable nominal oil price. (JEL E32 , Q43 , C22 )