Speculative attacks and currency crises: The Mexican experience

By using data from the Mexican economy, this paper estimates a speculative attack model of currency crises in order to identify the role of macroeconomic fundamentals and early warning signals of a potential currency crisis. A deterioration in fundamentals appears to generate high one-step-ahead probabilities for the observed regime changes during the sample period 1982–1994. Particularly, foreign reserve losses, expansionary output, monetary and fiscal policies, an increase in inflation differentials and the share of short-term foreign currency-indexed debt, and an appreciation of the real exchange rate appear to have contributed to the speculative pressures and the associated regime changes.     

Total Factor Productivity Growth in U.S. Commercial Banking for 1935–1991: A Latent Variable Approach Using the Kalman Filter

This paper studies total factor productivity (TFP) in U.S. commercial banking for 1935–1991. TFP can contain a procyclical bias when some input factors are not freely variable, causing their shadow and market prices to differ. We correct this bias in TFP by decomposing it into its latent stochastic trend and cyclical components by employing the Kalman filter. Using the FDIC's annual aggregate data on U.S. insured commercial banks, we report that the stochastic trend has been positive during 1935–1991, with an average annual growth rate of 2.27%, and that it exhibits a decaying time path. We attribute the positive TFP growth to technical change.     

产权、金融稳定政策与中央银行独立性

This paper builds a micro-behavior model of central bank and financial institutions from the perspective of property-rights. By analyzing the theoretical model and the practice, we conclude that, in the framework of the present financial stabilization policies in China, the central bank’s functions of monetary policy and financial stabilization are enslaved to financial institutions. Thus, central bank independence has been damaged because of the actual property-right relation between the central bank and the financial institutions. The policy implication is to cut off the property-right relation between the central bank and the financial institutions. __________ Translated from Caijing wenti yanjiu 财经问题研究 (Research on Finanical and Economic Issues), 2007, (6): 3–9     

大学生课余生活状况及自我感知与评价调查分析

通过对东北大学、辽宁大学等沈阳地区八所高校近1500名在校本、专科生及研究生的调查，对大学生课余生活状况及课余生活状态的自我感知与自我评价进行分析，了解大学生对学习知识重要性的认识及大学生学习知识的态度与课余生活状态的相关性。     

The impact of capital market imperfections on investment–cash flow sensitivity

We examine the investment–cash flow sensitivity of US manufacturing firms in relation to five factors associated with capital market imperfections – fund flows, institutional ownership, analyst following, bond ratings, and an index of antitakeover amendments. We find a steady decline in the estimated sensitivity over time. Furthermore, we find that investment–cash flow sensitivity decreases with increasing fund flows, institutional ownership, analyst following, antitakeover amendments and with the existence of a bond rating. The overall evidence suggests that investment–cash flow sensitivity decreases with factors that reduce capital market imperfections.     

发思古之幽情--嘉峪关、天水二城纪略

从城市定位上来看,嘉峪关应该是个工业城市,但因为有着特殊的旅游资源,所以近年来旅游及相关产业得到大幅增长。天水一直是西北地区重要的工业城市,特别是在国家“三线”建设时期,沿海城市的一批企业相继搬迁天水后,天水作为地区工业基地的地位更得到强化。     

Schlechter Wein in alten Schläuchen—Eine Replik auf Helmedag

In der Januarausgabe des WIRTSCHAFTSDIENST ver?ffentlichten wir einen Aufsatz von Professor Fritz Helmedag über die „Abh?ngigkeit der Besch?ftigung von Steuern, Budgetdefiziten und L?hnen“. Hierzu eine Replik von Professor Bernd Lucke und eine Erwiderung von Professor Fritz Helmedag.     

第三产业对GDP增长的贡献分析--以广东省为例

由广东省第三产业对全省GDP增长的贡献及第三产业各主要行业对GDP增长贡献大小可以看出,随着工业化的发展,第三产业将成为国民经济的主要推动力。本文认为,第三产业对国民经济的贡献份额与经济增长水平高度相关,第三产业中年均增速快的行业对国民经济的推动力也大,加快第三产业发展是国民经济发展的客观要求;要加快广东国民经济的发展,必须加快第三产业的发展,而在第三产业内部,应着重发展交通邮电、批发零售、房地产、社会服务、金融保险等对国民经济推动力大的行业。     

Die ökonomischen Konsequenzen der Korruption

Korruption ist ein weltumspannendes Ph?nomen, das—wie die jüngsten F?lle bei BMW, Infineon, Siemens und Volkswagen deutlich machen—auch in Deutschland aktuell ist. Wie ?u?ert sich Korruption, welche Folgen hat sie für die Volkwirtschaft, und wie l?sst sie sich bek?mpfen? Robert Vehrkamp behandelt die ?konomischen Konsequenzen der Korruption, Johann Graf Lambsdorff und Mathias Nell die Reformma?nahmen, die für ihre wirksame Bek?mpfung erforderlich sind.