Persistence in Portuguese mutual fund performance

Recent evidence suggests that future performance is predictable from past performance, that is, funds with superior (inferior) performance in the past are likely to remain good (bad) performers in the future. This research addresses the persistence of mutual fund performance in a European regional market (the Portuguese equity fund market). Some of the problems in evaluating fund persistence are identified in the context of limited sample size and using the peer group median as a benchmark for contingency table analysis of performance persistence. The criteria for assessing performance persistence based on the contingency table methodology of repeated winners and losers are presented in terms of significance statistics, adjusted for small sample bias. The adjustments are accomplished through the Yates continuity correction and Fisher's exact p-value. The appropriateness of each criteria under different circumstances is also discussed. The analysis of the returns of all Portuguese domestic equity funds, since a representative number was established, shows some performance persistence (on a quarterly basis). The persistence, however, is reduced when the returns are controlled for the various dimensions of risk. Significant risk persistence has been documented. Furthermore, for more or less frequent intervals of measurement, the industry persistence is rejected, although individual funds exhibit superior/inferior performance.     

Entry to foreign markets and productivity: Evidence from a matched sample of Turkish manufacturing firms

We examine the effects of international trading activities of firms on creating productivity gains in Turkey by using a recent firm-level data set over the period 2003–2010. We establish treatment models and investigate the productivity improvements of firms through trade by using propensity score matching techniques together with difference-in-difference estimates. Three different groups of treatment are constructed: (1) firms that are involved only with import activities, (2) firms that are involved only with export activities and (3) firms that are involved with both export and import activities. The results of the study suggest that both exporting and importing have positive significant effects on total factor productivity (TFP) and labour productivity (LP) of firms. Importing is found to have a greater impact on productivity of firms compared to exporting. Further, two-way trade is found to have more significant effects than those of one-way trade on firm productivity. Finally, our results indicate that international trade has greater impact on LP rather than TFP of firms.     

Droht eine Immobilienpreisblase in Deutschland?

Since 2009, real estate prices in Germany have been rising rapidly after a period of stagnation during the Great Recession. This raises the question of whether the recent price increases are fundamentally driven or rather an indication of a real estate bubble in Germany. To tackle this question, we take a look at several real estate demand-side indicators. As real estate bubbles sometimes form in certain sub-segments of the real estate market only, the authors also conduct a disaggregate analysis by looking at different real estate types in Germany’s most important metropolitan areas. In what follows, we investigate the relation of real estate prices and rents and test for explosive behaviour of the price-generating processes. Our findings suggest that the recent upswing in the German real estate market seems to be based on fundamental factors. Except for the sub-segment of flats in some of the metropolitan areas, there is no evidence for price increases being unsustainable.     

Patterns of Change in Child Labour and Schooling in Turkey: The Impact of Compulsory Schooling

Substantial improvements have taken place in the employment and schooling of children in Turkey. Decomposition analysis based on data from two time periods shows that a substantial part of the drop in child labour and over half of the increase in school enrolment can be attributed to the changing cost and benefit structures of work and schooling rather than to changing population characteristics. This paper establishes that work and schooling are incompatible activities and that the negative association between them has increased over time. The observed changes are attributed to the extension of compulsory schooling and the ban on child labour.     

A Green Vehicle Routing Problem

A Green Vehicle Routing Problem (G-VRP) is formulated and solution techniques are developed to aid organizations with alternative fuel-powered vehicle fleets in overcoming difficulties that exist as a result of limited vehicle driving range in conjunction with limited refueling infrastructure. The G-VRP is formulated as a mixed integer linear program. Two construction heuristics, the Modified Clarke and Wright Savings heuristic and the Density-Based Clustering Algorithm, and a customized improvement technique, are developed. Results of numerical experiments show that the heuristics perform well. Moreover, problem feasibility depends on customer and station location configurations. Implications of technology adoption on operations are discussed.     

高新技术集群企业技术能力提升的微观机制研究

为了揭示高新技术集群企业技术能力提升的内在机理,通过分析现有文献,提出了高新技术集群技术扩散网络的概念,并对技术扩散网络的内涵和特征进行分析。认为高新技术集群具有和传统集群相比的异质性特征,集群企业技术能力提升是通过企业技术获取、技术吸收、技术开发的学习过程获得的,各级网络层次的提升促使集群企业技术能力不断演化。     

A regime-switching analysis of pass-through

We empirically investigate how various economic factors affect the changes in the pricing policies of exporters, in particular changes in the exchange rate pass-through. Assuming exporters set prices following either a high or a low pass-through pricing policy, and assuming that the transition probabilities between these pricing policies depend on market concentration, exporting country??s market share and monetary stability, we estimate a Markov regime-switching model, using data we have collected on imported cars to the United States. Our findings show that the ??low pass-through?? regime is characterized by: lower exchange rate pass-through, low response to misalignments in the firm??s relative price, low volatility of exogenous shocks, and higher duration. When we decompose the changes in the pass-through in our sample, we find that monetary stability has been the most important factor behind the decline in the pass-through. Monetary stability explains more than 50% of the decline in the exchange rate pass-through, while country market share and market concentration explain about 25 and 10%, respectively.     

论碳交易平台对碳交易成本的影响--以深圳碳排放权交易体系为例

根据科斯定理,市场可以在政府不干预的情况下以有效方式消除温室气体污染的外部性。碳交易成本的大小对碳排放交易机制能否起作用有重要影响。碳交易平台对交易成本中的交易费用有直接影响,对交易成本中的管理成本和机会成本有一定程度的影响,对交易成本中的监测、报告和核查成本基本没有影响。交易平台可以从结构性和市场性两方面影响交易成本。     

主题公园游客流稳定性测评——以深圳华侨城为例

保持稳定的游客流是提高主题公园经营业绩和管理绩效、延长主题公园生命周期的有效途径之一。本文从主题公园自身特点出发,构建了主题公园游客流稳定性驱动模型,建立了主题公园游客流稳定性测评体系,并以深圳华侨城为例,通过因子分析和结构方程分析,对景区的游客流稳定性进行测评,分析各综合变量对游客流稳定性的驱动作用的大小以及变量之间的相互影响关系,为主题公园调控游客流稳定性提供参考依据。     

Trade, inequality, and the political economy of institutions

This paper investigates the relationship between international trade and the quality of economic institutions. We model institutions as fixed costs of entry, in a framework that has two key features. First, preferences over entry costs differ across firms and depend on firm size. Larger firms prefer to set higher costs of entry, in order to reduce competition. Second, these costs are endogenously determined in a political economy equilibrium. Trade opening can lead to higher entry costs when it changes the political power in favor of a small elite of large exporters, who in turn prefer to install high entry barriers.