Role of Input-Output Model in Macroeconomic Analysis and Forecasting

The current issue of the journal is dedicated to problems of using input–output models in modern scientific research and economic policy. Authors who applied the model in their scientific work and obtained significant scientific results are involved. This subject will take an important place in the further research practice of IEF RAS.     

Trends in the Development of Russian Currency Markets in the Context of Global Structural Transformations and Sanctions

The article analyzes factors, features and trends in the development of the Russian foreign exchange market as an integral part of international currency market in the context of global financial imbalances, de-globalization processes, new protectionism and sanctions regime in relation to Russia. Particular attention is paid to assessing the impact of forms and methods of managing international foreign exchange reserves on structure of Russian foreign exchange market, as well as characterizing the channels of impact of the current conditions for functioning of the Russian foreign exchange market on the currency policy strategy.     

Interrelations of Production and Investment Activities in the Construction Materials Industries

This paper presents one of the possible versions of the scenario for industrial development of the Russian economy. An analysis of the interrelation of production and investment in metallurgy in 1990–2017 was carried out. The need to consider the experience of investment development in individual industries and manufactures in the design of options for the economic development of the country and the implementation of a selective state policy is substantiated.     

The implementation of monetary policy in New Zealand: What factors affect the 90-day bank bill rate?

This paper discusses the implementation of monetary policy in New Zealand and its flow-on effects on the 90-day bank bill rate over the 1999–2005 period. The effects of external factors are considered as well. Our findings indicate that the maturity spectrum ratio exerted a positive effect on the 90-day bank bill rate while the allotment ratio did not. This interest rate had a tendency to revert to the level set by its Australian counterpart, though at a relatively slow speed. No such link exists between the NZ 90-day rate and the U.S. 90-day rate. Neither the maturity spectrum nor the allotment ratio contributed to the volatility of the most important short-term interest rate in New Zealand.     

The environment‐community symbiosis: A case for collaborative tourism planning

This article advances the proposition that sustainable tourism can be achieved through recognition that the public and private sector, the host communities and the natural environment are interdependent stakeholders in a complex tourism ‘domain’, where no single individual, agency or group can resolve strategic tourism issues by acting alone. The planning and management of this domain for the purpose of achieving sustainability requires moving away from traditional approaches towards dynamic collaboration among the stakeholders of the tourism development and planning domain. Collaboration provides a flexible process which evolves over time, enabling stakeholders to disseminate and manage problems or issues on an interactive basis. It offers an attractive alternative to adversarial problem solving methods in tourism planning and management, when inter or multi‐sectoral participation is required. The paper commences with a discussion of the shortfalls of traditional tourism planning processes and models, followed by an overview of collaboration ‘theory’. Examples are given which illustrate collaborative approaches in several mountain resort areas. An exploratory case study of tourism development and planning issues in the mountain community of Canmore, Alberta (Canada) is then presented, leading to a discussion and conclusion regarding the theoretical and practical applications of collaboration toward achieving sustainable tourism.     

The effects of customer age and recovery strategies in a service failure setting

The aim of this article is to explore the relationship between the type of service failure, age and the customer's negative emotions after a service failure; as well as the relationship between these emotions, the recovery strategies executed and service recovery satisfaction. The proposed model is tested on a sample of financial services customers who suffered some type of failure. The results indicate that the customer's age has a negative impact on the intensity of the negative emotions experienced after a service failure. In addition, the type of service failure (process or outcome) interacts with the age variable on its effect on these negative emotions. Finally, results also show that recovery strategies offset the negative effect of negative emotions on customer satisfaction and that a compensation strategy is more efficient if offered quickly.     

Examining bank SEOs: Are offers made by undercapitalized banks different?

Despite extensive monitoring, banking operations are often considered opaque, and despite explicit capital adequacy regulation, banks may have substantial discretion in their financing. Both monitoring and capital regulation have changed substantially over time, with the adoption of FDICIA being one important breakpoint. This article empirically studies seasoned equity offerings (SEOs) by banks to understand how opacity and capital regulation interact to determine the timing of bank SEOs and their market valuation. SEOs both by banks that are undercapitalized relative to regulatory standards and also well-capitalized banks are fully discretionary when it comes to SEOs, even before FDICIA. Both undercapitalized and well-capitalized banks experience similar and significantly negative stock price reactions to SEO announcements, and also have similar prior patterns of insider trading and similar economic drivers of the issuance decision. Moreover, post-SEO abnormal stock returns are similar to benchmark returns for both types of issuers in the long run, suggesting that, contrary to the well-documented evidence for industrial SEOs, investors understand the value implications of bank SEOs upon announcement. The evidence implies that undercapitalized banks' SEOs are more discretionary and that all bank SEOs are less opaque than implied by earlier studies.     

Corporate Political Contributions and Stock Returns

We develop a new and comprehensive database of firm‐level contributions to U.S. political campaigns from 1979 to 2004. We construct variables that measure the extent of firm support for candidates. We find that these measures are positively and significantly correlated with the cross‐section of future returns. The effect is strongest for firms that support a greater number of candidates that hold office in the same state that the firm is based. In addition, there are stronger effects for firms whose contributions are slanted toward House candidates and Democrats.     

Networking as a Barrier to Entry and the Competitive Supply of Venture Capital

We examine whether strong networks among incumbent venture capitalists (VCs) in local markets help restrict entry by outside VCs, thus improving incumbents' bargaining power over entrepreneurs. More densely networked markets experience less entry, with a one‐standard deviation increase in network ties among incumbents reducing entry by approximately one‐third. Entrants with established ties to target‐market incumbents appear able to overcome this barrier to entry; in turn, incumbents react strategically to an increased threat of entry by freezing out any incumbents who facilitate entry into their market. Incumbents appear to benefit from reduced entry by paying lower prices for their deals.     

Nonparametric estimation for a stochastic volatility model

Consider discrete-time observations (X _{? δ} )_1≤?≤n+1 of the process X satisfying $dX_{t}=\sqrt{V_{t}}dB_{t}Consider discrete-time observations (X _{ℓ δ} )_{1≤ℓ≤n+1} of the process X satisfying dX_t=?{V_t}dB_tdX_{t}=\sqrt{V_{t}}dB_{t} , with V a one-dimensional positive diffusion process independent of the Brownian motion B. For both the drift and the diffusion coefficient of the unobserved diffusion V, we propose nonparametric least square estimators, and provide bounds for their risk. Estimators are chosen among a collection of functions belonging to a finite-dimensional space whose dimension is selected by a data driven procedure. Implementation on simulated data illustrates how the method works.