Robust future‐oriented technology portfolios: Black–Litterman approach

We propose a new way of constructing more robust technology portfolios to overcome the weaknesses of previous technology portfolios based either on the judgments of experts or on quantitative data such as patents. Instead of using historical data, the method of nonlinear forecasting enables us to forecast the future number of patent citations and accordingly, to use the forecast as a quantitative proxy for future returns and risks of technologies. Using the Black–Litterman portfolio model, we improve the accuracy of inputs by combining the future views of experts with the future returns and risks of technologies. As a consequence of this, the portfolio becomes strongly future‐oriented. With our approach, corporate managers use both experts and data more effectively to build robust technology portfolios. In particular, our method is of great help for companies launching new businesses because the method avoids heavy dependency on internal experts with little knowledge about emerging technologies. A company entering the molecular amplification instrument market is exemplified herein.     

Marketing expense and financial performance in arts and cultural organizations

Nonprofit arts and cultural organizations use marketing to sustain viability. This study uses data from the Cultural Data Project to examine the effects of marketing on revenue in arts and cultural organizations. The current analysis demonstrates that total marketing expense is positively related to total revenue. Marketing expense used for fund‐raising positively influences donation income, as intended, whereas commercial income is not affected. Alternatively, marketing expense for programs positively influences both commercial income, as intended, and donation income. The novel finding from this study is that marketing expense mainly targeting non‐donor ticket buyers not only increases commercial income but also augments donation income in arts and cultural organizations.     

The effectiveness of the sunshine effect in Taiwan's stock market before and after the 1997 financial crisis

This study constructs a variety of GARCH models with the consideration of the generalized error distribution to analyze the relationship between the cloud cover and stock returns in Taiwan in the whole sample period (1986 to 2007) and in the two sub-sample periods (1986 to 1996 and 1997 to 2007). The data include Taiwan Stock Exchange Capitalization Weighted Stock Index, the primary eight stock sector indices, and the U.S. Dow Jones Industrial Average index to proxy the impact of U.S. stock market on Taiwan's stock market performance. The empirical finding of this study could be used to reconfirm the existence of the so-called sunshine effect. In addition, by comparing the long-run impulse multiplier effects of the cloud cover on the stock return in the two sub-sample periods; this study could examine the transition of the sunshine effect in Taiwan's stock market. The empirical results suggest that cloud cover has a significant negative impact on Taiwan's stock market, especially in the low cloud cover periods. Moreover, the pre-determined distribution of the error term plays an important role on the significance of the sunshine effect. The empirical result shows that most long-run multipliers are negative and the multiplier is more effective in the low cloud cover periods than in the high cloud cover periods.     

Social Justice and Affirmative Action in Malaysia: The New Economic Policy after 50 Years

Malaysia's New Economic Policy (NEP), promulgated in 1971, established a two-pronged national social justice agenda of poverty reduction, and social restructuring or pro-Bumiputera affirmative action. This distinction of these policy objectives must be appreciated, but various misconceptions, especially regarding affirmative action, have resulted in polarization and stalemate after 50 years of the NEP. Social justice and affirmative action must be conceptualized and evaluated with clarity and rigor, with policy objectives, mechanisms and outcomes aligned. Malaysia needs to systematically formulate a new social justice paradigm, building on the NEP and anchored on the principles of equality and fairness. In the affirmative action sphere, this framework must focus on developing capability and competitiveness, and balance identity, need and merit in the allocation of opportunity.     

Foreign competition and optimal privatization with excess burden of taxation

We examine in a mixed oligopoly setting how foreign competition and the excess burden of taxation will affect privatization policy in the presence of strategic tax/subsidy policies. We show that in the presence of excess burden of taxation with foreign competitors, output subsidy coupled with import tariff and partial privatization is adopted to improve the social welfare. However, if the excess burden of taxation is relatively large, the government may switch to use production tax coupled with tariff policy and partial privatization to improve the social welfare.     

Real exchange rate dynamics in the presence of non-traded goods and transaction costs

This paper studies the role of non-traded goods and transaction costs in accounting for the puzzling behavior of real exchange rates. We show that introducing the transaction costs and non-traded goods in an otherwise standard competitive model dramatically improves its ability to rationalize observed real exchange rate dynamics.     

Multimarket Contact and Rivalry over Knowledge‐based Resources

Research summary: Research shows that multimarket contact (MMC ) reduces rivalry involving downstream activities. Yet, studies showing that MMC can increase the threat of imitation suggest a need to better understand how MMC affects upstream rivalry over knowledge‐based resources. In this study, we argue that MMC increases rivalry over knowledge‐based resources since the deterrent threat of retaliation that typically leads to mutual forbearance in downstream activities will not be sufficient to restrain firms from protecting their knowledge from imitation in upstream activities. In support of these arguments we find that MMC increases the likelihood that a firm initiates patent litigation against a rival. This study suggests the relationship between MMC and rivalry may depend on the competitive domain and the type of resources over which firms are competing . Managerial Summary: How does market overlap or MMC affect rivalry between two competitors? Prior studies have largely found that an increase in market overlap decreases rivalry in less knowledge‐intensive context because of the deterrent threat of retaliation. However, in this paper, we argue that an increase in market overlap may not reduce rivalry in more knowledge‐intensive context because of heterogeneity in capabilities to protect knowledge. We find that a firm is more likely to initiate patent litigation against a rival as market overlap increases. Our findings suggest that the incentive to protect value across multiple product markets may surpass the motivation to cooperate with rivals and that managers should have a more nuanced view of how market overlap with competitors affects rivalry in more knowledge‐intensive contexts . Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

An analysis of factors improving technology roadmap credibility: A communications theory assessment of roadmapping processes

In recent years, many industrial firms have been able to use roadmapping as an effective process methodology for projecting future technology and for coordinating technology planning and strategy. Firms potentially realize a number of benefits in deploying technology roadmapping (TRM) processes. Roadmaps provide information identifying which new technologies will meet firms' future product demands, allowing companies to leverage R&D investments through choosing appropriately out of a range of alternative technologies. Moreover, the roadmapping process serves an important communication tool helping to bring about consensus among roadmap developers, as well as between participants brought in during the development process, who may communicate their understanding of shared corporate goals through the roadmap. However, there are few conceptual accounts or case studies have made the argument that roadmapping processes may be used effectively as communication tools. This paper, therefore, seeks to elaborate a theoretical foundation for identifying the factors that must be considered in setting up a roadmap and for analyzing the effect of these factors on technology roadmap credibility as perceived by its users. Based on the survey results of 120 different R&D units, this empirical study found that firms need to explore further how they can enable frequent interactions between the TRM development team and TRM participants. A high level of interaction will improve the credibility of a TRM, with communication channels selected by the organization also positively affecting TRM credibility.     

Binary choice under social interactions: an empirical study with and without subjective data on expectations

This paper examines two methods of modeling binary choice with social interactions: models assuming homogeneous rational expectations and models using subjective data on expectations. Exploiting a unique survey conducted during the 1996 US presidential election that was designed to study voting behavior under social context, we find that in various model specifications using subjective expectations consistently improves models' goodness‐of‐fit; and that subjective expectations are not rational as formulated by Brock and Durlauf. Specifically, members' characteristics are individually important in forming expectations. We also include correlated effect in the rational expectation model. This extension provides a remedy to the selection issues that often arise in social interaction models. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Mid-entry technology strategy: the Korean experience with CDMA

Mid-entry strategy is an R&D strategy designed for an efficient utilisation of scientific and technological resources across the nations. It chooses the entry point of R&D projects in the mid-stage of technical development. The technological situation of developing countries compels them to choose the mid-entry strategies tailored to specific technologies. The development of the CDMA (Code Division Multiple Access) based digital cellular mobile communication system by ETRI, Korea's government-sponsored research institute, is an example showing the application of this strategy. ETRI utilised scientific resources owned by US based Qualcomm Ltd and co-operated with local companies for the development. In the first half of 1996 the successful commercialisation of the CDMA digital cellular telephone service was launched in Korea, ahead of all other countries. Two Korean mobile communications providers have adopted the system.