Skills shortages and training: a forgotten dimension in new technology

Skills shortages and training problems are forgotten by many companies when they adopt new technology. 52 engineering firms in a 'traditional' industry in a single local labour market were interviewed to examine their attitudes to new technology and the skills and training implications of technology adoption. Skills and training issues were often forgotten or misjudged during the new technology appraisal process. It was these same areas which created most problems for many companies after adoption. Misjudgements concerning the level of labour force flexibility and training requirements for staff often created problems after the adoption of new technology. Skills shortages for adopting firms are most acute at the skilled level, this predominantly concerns the 'local labour market'. Most firms adopted a short term response to skills shortages. Relatively low utilisation of policy initiatives and 'formal' avenues of assistance prior to new technology adoption were also identified.     

Linear pooling of potentially related density forecasts in crop insurance

Accurate pricing of crop insurance policies relies on forecasts of probability densities of crop yields. Yield densities are dynamic, time series data on yields are often limited, and yield data are spatially correlated. We examine linear pooling of potentially related, but almost surely misspecified, crop yield density forecasts. The pooled forecasts combine densities from other spatial units based on out-of-sample forecast performance. The pooled densities result in more accurate premium rates which can reduce incentives for adverse selection. The approach is applicable to any insurance setting where the statistical model for the loss variable is likely to be misspecified and the underlying data-generating processes are potentially related.