Dating Business-Cycle turning points

This paper presents a logit model for dating business-cycle turning points. The regressors are monthly series from the Business Cycle Indicators database of the Conference Board. Dividing the sample period into a subset for model initialization (1959∶9–1970∶12) and a subset for testing (1971∶1–2003∶12) yields a chronology that is nearly identical to that established by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). However, the recognition lag is less than four months, in contrast to an average of more than eleven months for the official chronology. (JEL E320) The author is grateful for comments by an anonymous referee.     

Book Reviews

Richard Robison, Indonesia: The Rise of Capital, Allen and Unwin, Sydney, 1986 pp. xxv + 425. Indexed. $19.95.

W.L. Korthals Altes, Changing Economy in Indonesia: Volume 7: Balance of Payments, 1822–1939, Amsterdam: The Royal Tropical Institute. pp. 167.

Trade Statistics, Java, 1823–73: Trade Statistics, Indonesia 1874–1937. Mededeelingen van het Centraal Kantoor voor de Statistiek nos 160 and 161

Om Prakash, The Dutch East India Company and the Economy of Bengal, 1630–1720, Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1985 pp. xii + 291, map, tables. graphs, glossary, index. Cloth $38.50.

Sediono M.P. Tjondronegoro, Social Organization and Planned Development in Rural Java, Singapore, Oxford University Press for the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies, 1984, pp. xv + 326.

A. Fujimoto and F. Matsuda (eds), An Economic Study of Rice Farming in West Java, Tokyo: NODAI Research Institute, Tokyo, University of Agriculture, 1986.

A. Fujimoto and T. Matsuda (eds), A Comparative Study of the Structure of Rice Productivity and Rural Society in Southeast Asta Two Village Studies in Indonesta and Thailand, Tokyo: University of Agriculture, 1985. Reviewed by C.L J. van der Meer (1986) Bulletin of Indanesian Economic Studies, 22(2) pp. 124–27

David Jenkins, Suharto and His Generals: Indonesian Military Politics, 1975–1983, Ithaca: Cornell Modern Indonesia Project, Monograph Series No. 64, 1984, pp. xiii + 280. US$12.50. David Bourchier, Dynamics of Dissent in Indonesia Sawito and the Phantom Coup, Ithaca: Cornell Modern Indonesia Project, Interim Reports Series, 1984, pp. 128. US$9.00.

Linda G. Martin (ed), The ASEAN Success Story: Social, Economic, and Political Dimensions, East-West Center, distributed by the University of Hawaii Press, Honolulu, 1987, pp. xviii + 253. $15.00.

Mubyarto and Edy Suandy Hamid (eds), Kredit Pedesaan di Indonesia, Badan Penerbit Fakultas Ekonomi, U.G.M., 1986 pp, 160.

Ron Hatley, et al., Other Javas Away from the Kraton, Melbourne: Monash University, 1984, pp. 60.

K.S. Nathan and M. Pathmanathan (eds), Trilateralism in Asia: Problems and Prospects in US-Japan-ASEAN Relations, Antara Book Company, Kuala Lumpur, 1986, pp. xviii + 205. $18.00 (cloth): $12.00 (paper).     

Social distance and shopping behavior

This research was designed to see whether a reconceptualization of social distance (as measured by social class variables) between shoppers and stores would provide a basis for understanding store avoidance behavior. A survey of shoppers classified into two distinct social classes investigated their images, including social class images, of two stores that had been selected as representatives of upscale and downscale retailers. A new measure of social distance was proposed and evaluated. Controlling for other functional aspects of store image such as price and personnel, the social distance measure was found to be influential in discriminating shopping frequency groups for the two stores, providing evidence that people tend to avoid stores that are perceived as being socially distant from themselves.     

External bargaining versus internal manipulation: A theory of managerial delegation

Does the competition mode influence the delegation decisions of the firm owners? By constructing a vertical negotiation game model, we find that under Cournot competition in the downstream market, the downstream firm's owner will not choose delegation, whereas under Bertrand competition, the downstream firm's owner will choose delegation. If the product substitution is relatively large, the adoption of delegation management by the owners of downstream firms under Bertrand competition will bring higher profits. It further shows that compared with the situation of no delegation, delegation management may reverse the social welfare ranking under Bertrand and Cournot competitions.     

The new productivity challenge

"The single greatest challenge facing managers in the developed countries of the world is to raise the productivity of knowledge and service workers," writes Peter F. Drucker in "The New Productivity Challenge." Productivity, says Drucker, ultimately defeated Karl Marx; it gave common laborers the chance to earn the wages of skilled workers. Now five distinct steps will raise the productivity of knowledge and service workers--and not only stimulate new economic growth but also defuse rising social tensions.     

Cognitive style related to the design process

This paper describes the development of a new version of Witkin's Group Embedded Figures Test (GEFT) and two further tests of a similar type using words and letters. The new form of the Group Embedded Figures Test Consists of a number of original two dimensional figures (complex and simple). Variations of the basic two dimensional figures were obtained by establishing a geometrical progression (from following a set of simple rules) to produce increasing degrees of complexity of the complex figures. This in turn generated more simple figures within them which were used in the test items.By using words and lettersas a means of generating embedded complex/simple shapes, not only are very different types of (overall) shape possible, but also the notion of field dependence/independence can (possibly) be applied to non-spatial (in the usual sense) modes of operating within the curriculum, i.e. the humanities as opposed to design and technology subject areas.