THE INFLUENCE OF FIRM‐ AND CEO‐SPECIFIC CHARACTERISTICS ON THE USE OF NONLINEAR DERIVATIVE INSTRUMENTS

We examine why firms use nonlinear derivatives (e.g., options). Our results suggest that option characteristics in investment opportunities and debt, the payoff structure of incentive compensation, and free cash‐flow agency problems influence the firm's choice. Investment opportunities, internally generated cash flow, business risk, and option compensation positively influence the use of nonlinear currency derivatives. Option feature in bonds positively influence the use of nonlinear interest rate derivatives, whereas bonus and stock compensation, and CEO tenure have a negative influence. In sum, nonlinear cash flow characteristics in investment opportunity, debt, and executive compensation all relate positively to nonlinear derivative usage.     

Science and technology forecasting today: Features of its methodology and object

The paper examines methodological and subject aspects of some problem questions that arise in organizing and technologization a long-term forecast procedure. It looks at the basic elements of the methodology and technique of a long-term forecast performed during the development of the Concept for Long-term Socioeconomic Development of the Russian Federation. Key conditions for technology application in the framework of two possible scenarios of Russian economic growth, primary-and-energy and innovation-active, are analyzed.     

AN EVALUATION OF ALTERNATIVE APPROACHES TO MARKET SHARE ANALYSIS WITH APPLICATION TO THE KUWAITI POULTRY MARKET

Changes in exporter market shares in the Kuwaiti poultry import market over the period 1971–81 are analysed by three modelling procedures. Two traditional approaches, a first-order constant transition probability Markov model and a set of market share equations, are found to be of only limited use. As an alternative, a multinominal logit model of market share behaviour is estimated. The empirical results indicate that, in addition to relative price changes, domestic policy inducements for Brazilian and European Community exports are important in determining market share changes. A comparison of the explanatory abilities of the models suggests that the multinominal logit model is as least as good as traditional modelling alternatives with respect to econometric criteria. It is concluded that the multinominal logit model offers considerable promise as a tool for market share research.     

Kappa as a measure of pattern in sequential data

The kappa statistic is suggested as a means to index the degree to which particular patterns occur in social interaction. It is suggested that the value of the kappa statistic for each interaction be used as a dependent measure. Particular formulas for kappa are derived for undirectional dependence, bidirectional dependence, other additive patterns, and for dominance.     

山城旅游形象策划设计研究——以湖北省恩施市为例

本文阐述了山城旅游形象策划设计的现实意义,着重强调了城市旅游形象与城市形象,城市建设一体化三者合力作用对旅游地旅游形象的重要影响。通过对干预恩施市旅游形象要素的分析,运用旅游产品形象设计的相关理论与方法,为建构恩施市的整体旅游形象,打造恩施市的旅游品牌提出了策略建议。     

Growth patterns of the world’s largest firms, 1962–1982

Zusammenfassung Wachstumsmuster der gr?\ten Firmen der Welt zwischen 1962 und 1982. - Mit Hilfen der Gibrat- und Galton-Modelle wird gezeigt, da\ in den beiden Perioden 1962–1972 und 1972–1982 das Wachstum der gr?\ten Unternehmen langsamer war als das kleinerer Unternehmen. Die wirtschaftliche Konzentration innerhalb dieser Gruppe von Unternehmen mit Weltgeltung nahm in jeder Periode vermutlich ab. Die kleineren Firmen unter ihnen, die zwischen 1962 und 1972 verh?ltnism?\ig erfolgreich waren, wiederholten diesen Erfolg zwischen 1972 und 1982: “Erfolg erzeugt Erfolg”. Die Nationalit?t der Firmen scheint auf diese Ergebnisse für die Periode 1962–1972 ohne Einflu\ gewesen zu sein. Zwischen 1972 und 1982 dagegen gab es in Deutschland und Japan im Gegensatz zu den USA, Gro\britannien und dem Rest der Welt keine Tendenz der kleineren Firmen, schneller zu wachsen.

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Résumé Structures de croissance des entreprises mondiales les plus grandes, 1962–1982.- En utilisant les modèles de Gibrat et Galton, les auteurs démontrent que la croissance proportioneile des entreprises les plus grandes était plus lente que celle des entreprises plus petites dans les deux périodes 1962–1972 et 1972–1980. La concentration dans ce groupe des grandes entreprises a probablement décr? dans chaque période. Des petites entreprises qui avaient relativement beaucoup de succès en 1962–1972 répétaient la bonne performance en 1972–1982: “succès produit de succès”. La nationalité de l’entreprise ne semble pas avoir influencé ces résultats en 1962–1972. Mais pour la période 1972–1982, l’Allemagne et le Japon différaient des Etats Unis, du R.U. et du reste du monde en manière que les entreprises les plus petites n’accroissent pas plus vite.

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Resumen Pautas de crecimiento de las empresas más importantes, 1962–1982. — Utilizando los modelos de Gibrat y de Galton se demuestra que las empresas más grandes han crecido más lentamente que las empresas peque?as en los períodos 1962–1972 y 1972–1982. La concentración de empresas importantes probablemente disminuyó en cada período. Las empresas peque?as con éxito relativo en 1962–1972 pudieron repetir su éxito en 1972–1982: el éxito genera éxito. La nacionalidad de las empresas parece no haber tenido efecto sobre los resultados para 1962–1972. Pero en 1972–1982, Alemania y el Japón se diferenciaron de los EEUU, el Reino Unido y el resto del mundo al carecer de una tendencia favorable para la peque?a empresa.