The Expected Utility of the Doubling Strategy

It has been noted that a certain continuous-time trading strategy, termed the “doubling strategy”, generates a positive net return on borrowed funds, with probability one and within a finite period of time. Since the doubling strategy seems to represent a “free lunch” or arbitrage opportunity, a variety of constraints to render it infeasible have been proposed. In this paper, we show that the doubling strategy generates infinite disutility for a large class of utility functions, and we can think of no utility function for a risk-averse agent which is a counterexample.     

INDUSTRIAL POLICY IN LESS DEVELOPED COUNTRIES

The idea of industrial policy is to cure perceived market failures of various sorts. This also has been the meat of development economics for decades. Moreover, strong similarities exist between the specific goals of industrial policy advocates for developed countries and goals of governments in less developed countries. Both groups seek to pick industrial winners, deal with externalities, improve the balance of trade, and attract high-tech industries. Given that markets appear not to operate as well in developing countries as in their developed counterparts, we would expect industrial policy to work particularly well in LDCs since many important market failures should be relatively easy to identify and the gains from correcting them should be great. Moreover, because LDCs tend to intervene more than their developed counterparts, we would expect them to exhibit particularly strong effects of this intervention. Thus, the experiences of LDCs constitute a well endowed laboratory to study the effects of industrial policies in practice, and to yield lessons relevant for both industrial and developing countries. This paper explores these experiences, and closes with some lessons for the design of sensible industrial strategy.     

A COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF PAYDAY LOAN CUSTOMERS

One of the most rapidly growing and controversial forms of consumer lending to recently emerge in the marketplace has been payday advances. This form of credit allows the borrower to obtain a small amount of cash for a short period of time. Claims of predatory lending often arise due to the high annual percentage rates that result from the fees for borrowing small amounts of money for 2 wk or less. By analyzing the data collected in a national survey of payday customers, this research allows policymakers to better understand what type of consumer borrows from payday lenders, for what purpose, and what the true benefits and costs are. The results confirm a strong demand for payday loans that satisfy a real financial need within a certain segment of the population. ( JEL D12, D18, G20)     

Correlated Equilibrium,Conformity, and Stereotyping in Social Groups

We argue that a social norm and the coordination of behavior within social groups can be expressed by a correlated equilibrium. Given a social group structure (a partition of individuals into social groups), we propose four conditions that one may expect of a correlated equilibrium consistent with social norms. These are: (1) within‐group anonymity (conformity within groups), (2) group independence (no conformity between groups), (3) homophily (individuals in the same group have similar attributes), and (4) predictable group behavior (ex post stability). We demonstrate that correlated equilibrium satisfying (1)–(3) exist very generally and equilibrium satisfying (1)–(4) exist in games with many players. We also consider stereotyped beliefs—beliefs that all individuals in a social group can be expected to behave in the same way—and show that stereotyping is not costly to the person who stereotypes but may or may not be beneficial to society.     

Do Analyst Stock Recommendations Piggyback on Recent Corporate News? An Analysis of Regular‐Hour and After‐Hours Revisions

Analysts often update their recommendations following corporate news. Questions have been raised regarding analysts’ ability to generate new information beyond recent corporate events. Employing a comprehensive database on corporate news, we show that only a small minority, or 27.9%, of all recommendation revisions directionally confirm the information in the preceding corporate events and even these “confirming revisions” facilitate the information discovery of corporate events and thus cannot simply be dismissed as “piggybacking.” Our analysis further shows that analysts not only facilitate price discovery to corporate news through issuing trending revisions but also help reverse prevailing market sentiments following corporate news by issuing contrarian revisions. Our study is the first to investigate short‐window intraday market reactions to revisions issued after hours, which account for 70% of all recommendation revisions in our sample period. Analysts’ incentives to issue revisions after hours appear to reflect demands from large institutional clients, who dominate after‐hours trading. More importantly, we show that the after‐hours revisions are associated with significantly greater price reactions and different price reaction patterns than revisions issued during regular trading hours. Collectively, our evidence indicates that analysts are a significant source of new information beyond recent corporate news and they also help shape the market's assessment of corporate disclosures.     

Housing Really Is the Business Cycle: What Survives the Lessons of 2008–09?

The downturn of 2008–09 has confirmed that: (i) housing is the single most critical part of the U.S. business cycle, (ii) the proper conduct of monetary policy needs to be cognizant that choices made at one point in time affect the options later, and (iii) the best time to intervene in the housing cycle is when the volume of building is above normal and growing more so. What was different this time was the rapid and substantial decline in home prices.     

The Frequency of Consumer Expenditure: An Empirical Analysis

How does the observed pattern of household purchases vary, as we extend or shorten the period of observation? An empirical analysis of data from the U.S. Consumer Expenditure Survey, Interview Survey, from 1987–1989, reveals that there is considerable heterogeneity across disaggregate goods and across households in the frequency of expenditure. Issues of data quality and of the implications of the period of observation for Tobit analysis are also discussed.