TAX REVISIONS OF 2004 AND PRO SPORTS TEAM OWNERSHIP

Tax law revisions of 2004 altered the “roster depreciation allowance” enjoyed by pro sports team owners. Supporters claimed this would practically eliminate costly legal oversight by the IRS and, ultimately, increase owner tax bills. Government officials and leagues remained silent on team value impacts but outside analysts argued they would rise by 5%. We model this policy change and investigate it empirically. Supporters in Congress were absolutely correct that owner tax payments should increase but outside analysts underestimated team value increases by half. No wonder Major League Baseball and the National Football League favored the revision. (JEL D21, G38, H25, L83)     

Measuring Corporate Bond Mortality and Performance

This study develops an alternative way to measure default risk and suggests an appropriate method to assess the performance of fixed-income investors over the entire spectrum of credit-quality classes. The approach seeks to measure the expected mortality of bonds and the consequent loss rates in a manner similar to the way actuaries assess mortality of human beings. The results show that all bond ratings outperform riskless Treasuries over a ten-year horizon and that, despite relatively high mortality rates, B-rated and CCC-rated securities outperform all other rating categories for the first four years after issuance, with BB-rated securities outperforming all others thereafter.     

Age and wealth: a cross/within-cohort analysis

The Life Cycle Income Hypothesis (LIH) suggests specific wealth accumulation/decumulation behaviour. The purpose of this study was to determine whether empirical support for the LIH existed among a group of respondents as they entered the retirement stage of life. Results indicate that the appropriateness of the LIH as an explanatory theory of wealth accumulation/decumulation is contingent on how wealth is defined.     

Anchoring on Credit Spreads

This paper documents that the path of credit spreads since a firm's last loan influences the level at which it can currently borrow. If spreads have moved in the firm's favor (i.e., declined), it is charged a higher interest rate than is justified by current fundamentals, whereas if spreads have moved to the firm's detriment, it is charged a lower rate. We evaluate several possible explanations for this finding, and conclude that anchoring to past deal terms is most plausible.     

Do IFRS Reconciliations Convey Information? The Effect of Debt Contracting

We examine whether earnings reconciliation from U.K. generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP) to International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) convey information. As a result of debt contracting, mandatory accounting changes are expected to affect the likelihood of violating existing covenants based on rolling GAAP, leading to a redistribution of wealth between shareholders and lenders. Consistent with this prediction, we find significant market reactions to IFRS reconciliation announcements. These market reactions are more pronounced among firms that face a greater likelihood and costs of covenant violation and early announcements. While the association between later announcements and weaker market reactions is consistent with contractual implications of technical changes to earnings, which investors quickly learn to predict, it is inconsistent with IFRS forcing all firms in the sample to reveal firm-specific information through accruals. Thus, by showing that mandatory IFRS also affects debt contracting, we expand on existing IFRS research that focuses on how accounting quality and cost of capital are impacted.     

A PREDICTIVE APPROACH TO MODEL SELECTION AND MULTICOLLINEARITY

We argue for the adoption of a predictive approach to model specification. Specifically, we derive the difference between means and the ratio of determinants of covariance matrices when a subset of explanatory variables is included or excluded from a regression. Results for an economic application are presented as an example. © 1997 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.