大型复杂项目组织研究文献评述:社会学视角

作为一种临时性的组织,大型复杂项目组织具有典型的社会属性,这根源于工程项目的社会性特征.传统的项目管理理论需要借助交叉学科来研究这一问题,社会学理论是其中的一个重要支撑.文章从大型复杂项目组织研究的重要性出发,对该问题进行了文献分析和评述.主要从理论和方法两个方面,包括工程社会学观和哲学观、工程伦理学观以及社会网络学观等,尤其对社会学中社会网络分析(socialNetworkAnalysjs,SNA)的应用进行了详细评述.期望对大型复杂项目组织的社会学视角的研究提供研究基础和启示.     

Why does the velocity of money move pro‐cyclically?

The velocity of money usually rises in expansions and falls in recessions This paper explains this pro‐cyclical movement of velocity using two ideas: (i) during business cycles the movement of investment and consumption of durable goods has a larger amplitude than consumption of non‐durable goods and services; (ii) the velocity associated with expenditure on investment and durable goods is much higher than the velocity associated with consumption of non‐durable goods and services, because the former expenditures are synchronized with the attainment of money by economic agents whereas the latter are not. In this setting, the rise in the weight of expenditure in durable goods relative to the weight of non‐durable goods and services, which occurs during expansions, generates an increase in the average velocity of circulation. The opposite happens during recessions and thus velocity moves pro‐cyclically.     

Social Welfare Functionals on Restricted Domains and in Economic Environments

Arrow's “impossibility” and similar classical theorems are usually proved for an unrestricted domain of preference profiles. Recent work extends Arrow's theorem to various restricted but “saturating” domains of privately oriented, continuous, (strictly) convex, and (strictly) monotone “economic preferences” for private and/or public goods. For strongly saturating domains of more general utility profiles, this paper provides similar extensions of Wilson's theorem and of the strong and weak “welfarism” results due to d'Aspremont and Gevers and to Roberts. Hence, for social welfare functionals with or without interpersonal comparisons of utility, most previous classification results in social choice theory apply equally to strongly saturating economic domains.     

Optimal Hedging under Intertemporally Dependent Preferences

This paper examines optimal hedging behavior in a market where preferences for current consumption are partly determined by the consumer's past consumption history. The model considers an individual exposed to price risk, who allocates wealth between consumption and futures contracts over a (continuous-time) finite planning horizon. The speculative component of the hedge ratio is shown to be smaller and the consumption path smoother than in models where preferences are separable over time. Some comparative-static properties of the hedge ratio are also examined.     

Partial Identification in Monotone Binary Models: Discrete Regressors and Interval Data

We investigate identification in semi-parametric binary regression models, y = 1( x β +υ+ε > 0) when υ is either discrete or measured within intervals. The error term ε is assumed to be uncorrelated with a set of instruments z , ε is independent of υ conditionally on x and z , and the support of − ( x β +ε) is finite. We provide a sharp characterization of the set of observationally equivalent parameters β . When there are as many instruments z as variables x , the bounds of the identified intervals of the different scalar components β _k of parameter β can be expressed as simple moments of the data. Also, in the case of interval data, we show that additional information on the distribution of υ within intervals shrinks the identified set. Specifically, the closer the conditional distribution of υ given z is to uniformity, the smaller is the identified set. Point identified is achieved if and only if υ is uniform within intervals.     

Underreaction to Industry‐Wide Earnings and the Post‐Forecast Revision Drift

We test whether the post‐forecast revision drift is mainly attributable to investors’ underreaction to industry‐wide earnings news conveyed by analysts’ forecast revisions. We find a large drift associated with industry‐wide earnings news but no drift associated with firm‐specific earnings news. Consistent with the functional fixation hypothesis, we provide evidence that the post‐forecast revision drift is driven by investors’ underreaction to the higher persistence of industry‐wide earnings. Although prior research has focused on differential persistence of earnings components stemming from managerial reporting discretion, we provide evidence suggesting that investors do not fully understand the differential earnings persistence attributable to industry fundamentals.     

How Wise Are Crowds? Insights from Retail Orders and Stock Returns

We analyze the role of retail investors in stock pricing using a database uniquely suited for this purpose. The data allow us to address selection bias concerns and to separately examine aggressive (market) and passive (limit) orders. Both aggressive and passive net buying positively predict firms’ monthly stock returns with no evidence of return reversal. Only aggressive orders correctly predict firm news, including earnings surprises, suggesting they convey novel cash flow information. Only passive net buying follows negative returns, consistent with traders providing liquidity and benefiting from the reversal of transitory price movements. These actions contribute to market efficiency.