Cointegration, Efficiency and Forecasting in the Currency Market

Existing literature on using the cointegration approach to examine the efficiency of the foreign exchange market gives mixed results. Arguments typically focus on econometric testing techniques, with fractional cointegration being the most current one. This paper tries to look at the issue from an economic perspective. It shows that the cointegrating relationship, whether cointegrated or fractionally cointegrated, is found mainly among the currencies of the European Monetary System which are set to fluctuate within a given range. Hence, there is no inconsistency with the notion of market efficiency. Yet, exploiting such a cointegrating relationship is helpful in currency forecasting. There is some evidence that restricting the forecasting model to consist of only cointegrated currencies improves forecasting efficiency.     

Participation: 'bounded freedom' or hidden constraints on user involvement

User participation in information systems development is often surrounded by assumptions that the resultant system will be a success, will reflect user needs, and that the process results in an empowered workforce. This paper argues that underlying these foreground rational assumptions are instrumental, politically motivated justifications driving the need to involve users.     

TAX POLICIES TO INCREASE FARM PRICES AND INCOME: A QUANTITATIVE SIMULATION

In previous periods when agricultural production was large relative to demand in North America, supply control through limitations in production and markets has been used. Large cropfalls and mammoth international purchases by the USSR during the early 1970s depleted North American grain stocks and caused major supply control programs to vanish. With more favorable worldwide weather, however, grain production and carryover have increased to levels where farmers may demand supply and market controls to improve prices and income. In contrast to conventional models, we make a quantitative analysis for the United States to three tax policies which might be used to restrain production and improve prices and farm income. All tax alternatives do so if the taxes collected by the government are returned to farmers. The tax alternatives examined include a tax on inputs, a gross sales tax, and a tax-in-kind similar to a share rent. The tax policies are applied through an econometric simulation model. Certain limitations of the tax policies are explained. Aux époques antérieures, lorsque la production agricole était grande compareée à la demande dans l'Amérique du Nord, on a contrôlé les stocks de réserve par moyen de limitations de production et de vente. Les récoltes inférieures et les énormes achats par l'URSS pendant la premiére partie des années 70 ont diminué les réserves des céréales de l'Amérique du Nord, ce qui a rendu superflus les programmes majeurs de contrôle. Toutefois, un climat global favorable a augmenté la production et l'accumulation jusqu'au point oú les agriculteurs peuvent considérer nécessaires des contrôles sur la production et la vente afin d'améliorer les prix et leurs revenus. Faisant contraste avec les modéles conventionnels, nous présentons une analyse quantitative pour les Etats-Unis de trois systémes d'impôts qui pourraient etre appliqués pour diminuer la production et pour améliorer les prix et les revenus agricoles. Tous les trois systémes sont effectifs à ce but, pourvu que les impôts perçus par le gouvernement soient rendus aux producteurs. Les alternatifs examinés comprennent un impôt sur les frais de production, un impôt en gros sur les ventes et un systéme d'impôts payables par une quantité des céréales produites, semblable au métayage. Les systémes sont appliqués par moyen d'un modéle de simulation économétrique. Certaines limitations des systémes sont presentées.     

Regional Economic Impacts of Fusarium Head Blight in Wheat and Barley

Fusarium Head Blight is a fungus affecting wheat and barley in the upper Midwest region of the United States. The purpose of this study is to estimate the direct and secondary regional economic impacts of Fusarium Head Blight infestations from 1998 to 2000. Cumulative direct production and price impacts from Fusarium Head Blight in hard red spring, soft red winter, durum wheat, and barley are estimated at $871 million over the period, with secondary economic losses of $1.8 billion. The total impacts of $2.7 billion were concentrated in North Dakota and Minnesota, which accounted for 55% of total losses over the period.     

Spatial Modeling in Technology Adoption Decisions: The Case of Shuttle Train Elevators

This article empirically models a strategic game of technology adoption of shuttle train grain elevators with information on location of the firm and its competitors. A spatial econometric model illustrates the role of spatial interdependence of rivals' decisions as well as agronomic and competitive variables on discrete adoption decisions. The analysis assesses equilibria conditions that characterize technology adoption, in this case of shuttle train adoption, and the results provide an explanation of shuttle train adoption decisions in the grain handling industry in which spatial competition is critical.     

构建领导能力补给线：从哪里开始

构建领导能力补给线对所有企业而言都是一种竞争上的必要之举。如果得到成功执行,它将创造出竞争优势     

The effects of unions on research and development: an empirical analysis using multi-year data

A link between unionization and research and development rates (research and development expenditures divided by output) is tested for in thirteen aggregate Canadian industries. A balanced panel of thirteen industries covering 1968 to 1986 reveals a negative relationship between industry unionization rates and research and development. The results hold when a number of techniques are used to control for unobserved industry heterogeneity and non-linear responses to unionization. In an industry that moves from the 25th to the 75th percentile of unionization, research and development is predicted to fall by about 40 per cent. JEL Classification: J51
Les effets des syndicats sur l'intensité de la recherche et développement: une analyse empirique sur plusieurs années . Ce mémoire examine le lien entre le degré de syndicalisation et les taux de dépenses en recherche et développement en proportion de la production dans treize industries canadiennes. Pour ces treize secteurs industriels, entre 1968 et 1986, il semble qu'il y ait une relation négative entre les taux de syndicalisation et les taux de dépenses en recherche et développement. Ces résultats sont robustesmême quand on utilise des techniques pour tenir compte de l'hétérogéneité des secteurs et des réponses non linéaires à la syndicalisation. Pour une industrie qui voit son taux de syndicalisation passer du 25e au 75e percentile, on prévoit une chute de 40% dans la recherche et développement.     

Board Pay and the Separation of Ownership from Control in U.K. SMEs

This paper examines Board pay for a sample of 571 U.K. SMEs from 1991 to 1995. Approximately half of the sample were closely-held (i.e., owner-managed) firms which allowed empirical testing of models of the relationship between Board pay and ownership from control characteristics. Consistent with their need to align shareholder and manager incentives, the results indicate that the change in nonclosely-held SME Board pay is significantly related to both external market pay comparisons and “benchmark” profits. This contrasts with the empirical results for the closely-held firms where Board pay awards are typically highly sensitive to current total profits but wholly unrelated to external market pay levels.