REBALANCING EC CEREALS PROTECTION AND THE GATT URUGUAY ROUND

This paper considers the proposals put forward by the EC at the GATT Uruguay Round in December 1990. The EC's objective of rebalancing the Common Agricultural Policy in the context of a partial liberalisation of agricultural support on the world cereals market is assessed, as is the choice of base year from which liberalisation would have been initiated. The US's proposal for more significant reduction in agricultural support is also considered. The results show that the EC would not necessarily have benefited from rebalancing, since the effects would have depended on the choice of base period. For example, with 1986 (1988) as the base year, net welfare changes would have been 20 (50) percent higher (lower) with rebalancing, relative to the case without. Not surprisingly, the more substantial liberalisation proposed by the US would have resulted in greater net welfare gains even if rebalancing was conceded by the US.     

Information technology developments and implications for national policies

A review is made of the global status of information technology (IT) development and new opportunities identified for government IT policies. Despite operational problems, IT innovations continue apace. Poor human-computer interaction, user friendliness and lack of standardization are all key issues which must be addressed. Globalization trends, east-west politicomilitary changes and third world development, all have implications for government IT policies over the coming decade—and the right directions must be pursued now to derive real benefits from IT and move towards a true information economy.     

The impacts of Hong Kong’s Currency Board reforms on the interbank market

Among the economies with a Currency Board System (CBS), Hong Kong (HK) is probably the one with the largest and most developed financial sector, as well as the highest capital mobility. Hence, studying HK’s CBS is not only crucial to HK, but also important for the understanding of the modern CBS. This paper outlines the major monetary reforms in HK since the late 1980s. The impacts of these reforms and the 1997–1998 Asian Financial Crisis are then examined empirically. We focus on the differentials between the US and HK interbank interest rates. We assume the conditional-mean equation follows an autoregressive process and the conditional-variance equation follows a generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity process. This model captures the time-varying level and volatility of the differential. In light of the empirical results we provide an assessment of the reforms in HK.     

Cross Entropy Estimation of the Almost Ideal Demand System for Greek Consumption

Cross entropy is used to estimate the Almost Ideal Demand System for consumption in Greece. The entropy estimates are found to improve upon the SUR estimates. It is recommended that practitioners consider employing entropy based procedures in systems where the data set is small, where there are a large number of parameters, or where the data are deficient.     

Teams,Teamwork and Absence*

We argue that firms with interdependent worker productivity, team production, have a higher cost of absence and, as a consequence, spend additional resources on monitoring absence. As a result, firms with team production should have lower absence rates. We estimate the determinants of absence for blue‐collar workers using a sample of German manufacturing establishments. Workplace teams are used as a proxy for team production. The estimates reveal that firms with teams have lower absence rates, as do smaller establishments. The size effect, however, is unique to establishments with teams, which fits prior theoretical work that has not been previously tested.     

Finding Pareto Optimal Insurance Contracts

This paper deals with on-line computation—or step-wise learning—of Pareto optimal insurance contracts. Our approach tolerates that the loss distribution might be unknown, intractable, or not well specified. Thus we accommodate fairly inexperienced parties. Losses are here simulated or observed, one at a time, and they cause iterated revisions of the premium. The mechanical and global nature of probability calculus thereby yields to more tentative, myopic procedures, possibly closer to how humans operate or reason in face of risk. Sequential revisions may also reduce the expense of insurers' time and money in seeking sufficient statistics. Emphasized below is the remarkable simplicity and stability of the resulting adaptive procedures. Special attention goes to catastrophic risks, and to subsidized or competitive insurance.     

Habilitation von Ralf Hohlfeld

Ohne Zusammenfassung