Have Casinos Contributed to Rising Bankruptcy Rates?

This paper examines the relationship between casino gambling and bankruptcy rates in U.S. counties using a panel of U.S. county-level data from 1990 through 2005. We contribute to the literature in several ways, perhaps most notably by examining the possibility that the effect of a casino on bankruptcy may differ over the casino’s lifespan. Results confirm this possibility, indicating that the impact of casinos on bankruptcy follows a “U-shaped” curve over the life of the casino. More specifically, regression analysis indicates the existence of a casino in a county increases the bankruptcy rate by more than 9% in the first year of operation. The percentage of additional bankruptcies then decreases through the third year after the casino opens. Bankruptcy rates in casino counties then slightly fall below that of non-casino counties during the fourth through seventh years after opening, increasing once again in the eighth year and thereafter. This cycle corresponds closely to the 6 year statute of limitations period applicable to Chapter 7 bankruptcies.     

Urban economic base as a catalyst for movements in real estate prices

We examine the relation between housing prices in an MSA and its urban economic base. We create and employ new forward-looking employment growth indices that measure the urban economic strength of an MSA and find that it accounts for a significant and sizeable portion of the house price movements in that MSA. We argue that the forward looking measure is an indicator of future agglomeration growth for the MSAs. We further partition the urban economic growth into growth by various industries and track the attribution of their growth to housing prices over time. We find that for some MSAs, home prices are driven by the same set of industries over time, whereas for others, home prices are driven by a totally new set of industries in the later quarters, due to the birth of new industries. We also analyze the impact of the diversification of an urban economic base on home price volatility and observe that diversification decreases home price volatility. The result has larger implications for urban policymakers in selecting the appropriate type of industries relative to their existing mix of industries.     

Exploring the effectiveness of cigarette warning labels: findings from the United States and United Kingdom arms of the International Tobacco Control (ITC) Four Country Survey

• This paper explores the effectiveness of cigarette warning labels across two countries, one (the UK) with new and stricter legislation where text based labels have been made more prominent and one (the USA) with less stringent regulation, where labels are less visible. Using longitudinal data from the two countries, the research seeks to investigate the impact of the different types of warning labels on the information processing by consumers. This paper assesses the effectiveness of warning labels in terms of: consumer attention, elaboration, contemplation on quitting and behavioural compliance. This study provides a comprehensive examination of these key factors in a fixed causal sequence. Structural equation modelling was used to test this model based on longitudinal panel survey data from the International Tobacco Control (ITC) Four Country Survey. Analysis of a sample of 901 US smokers and 1459 UK smokers yielded results in full support of all hypothesised relationships in the model proposed for both countries. Findings suggest that the new European Union policy of more prominent warning labels has a direct effect on influencing behavioural compliance by smokers.

Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Creating an Environment for Economic Growth: Creativity,Entrepreneurship or Human Capital?

Scholars and policymakers interested in the growth and prosperity of regions have long recognized that talent and knowledge are fundamental. Yet the question is what types of talent are needed in a growing twenty‐first‐century economy: human capital, creativity and innovation, or entrepreneurship? The latter we define broadly to include any type of risk taking, and not only radical innovation. The literature does not clearly point to one factor as being the most essential. This study assesses this question separately for rural and urban United States (US) counties. We find that human capital––measured by educational attainment––is considerably more conducive to employment growth than the share of creative occupations. Likewise, the share of small and medium businesses is also very conducive to local growth, although this does not apply to the self‐employment share. Rural and urban areas experience similar patterns, although the magnitude thereof tends to be larger for urban counties, whereas high‐technology employment share has had a positive effect in rural areas. Policy conclusions suggest that enhancing small business development and increasing educational attainment are the two strategies that are most likely to succeed.     

Knowledge,Competence, And Regional Development

This study examines the impact that locational spillovers have on firm performance. On the basis of a uniquely created data set consisting of high-technology start-ups publicly listed in Germany, this paper tests the proposition of locational spillovers positively affecting firm performance, as measured by abnormally high profits on the stock market. The results provide evidence that geographic proximity and university spillovers are complementary determinants of firm performance. Although neither geographic proximity nor academic research spillovers alone can explain firm performance, a combination of both factors results in significant higher stock market performance. The results also show that academic spillovers are heterogeneous in their impact, depending on the type. In particular, spillovers from social sciences have a different impact on firm performance than do spillovers from natural sciences.     

Guidelines-based treatment associated with improved economic outcomes in nontuberculous mycobacterial lung disease

Abstract

Background: The prevalence of nontuberculous mycobacterial lung disease (NTMLD) in the US has increased; however, data characterizing the associated healthcare utilization and expenditure at the national level are limited.

Objective: To examine associations between economic outcomes and the use of anti-Mycobacterium avium complex (MAC) guidelines-based treatment (GBT) for newly-diagnosed NTMLD in a US national managed care claims database (Optum^® Clinformatics^® Data Mart).

Methods: NTMLD was defined as having ≥2 claims for NTMLD (ICD-9 031.0; ICD-10 A31.0) on separate occasions ≥30?days apart (between 2007 and 2016). The cohort included patients insured continuously over a period of at least 36?months (12?months before initial NTMLD diagnostic claim and for the subsequent 24?months). Treatment was classified as GBT (consistent with American Thoracic Society/Infectious Diseases Society of America guidelines), non-GBT, or untreated. All-cause hospitalization rates and total healthcare expenditures at Year 2 were assessed as outcomes of the treatment prescribed in Year 1 after NTMLD diagnosis.

Results: A total of 1,039 patients met study criteria for NTMLD (GBT, n?=?294; non-GBT, n?=?298; untreated, n?=?447). After adjustment for baseline characteristics, GBT was associated with a significantly lower all-cause hospitalization risk vs non-GBT (odds ratio [OR]?=?0.53; 95% CI = 0.33–0.85, p?=?0.008), and vs being untreated (OR = 0.57; 95% CI = 0.35–0.91, p?=?0.020). Adjusted total healthcare expenditure in Year 2 with GBT ($69,691) was lower than that with non-GBT ($77,624) with a difference of ?$7,933 (95% CI = ?$14,968 to ?$899; p?=?0.03).

Conclusions: Patients with NTMLD in a US managed care claims database who were prescribed GBT had lower hospitalization risk than those who were prescribed non-GBT or were untreated. GBT was associated with lower total healthcare expenditure compared with non-GBT.     

A sequential Monte Carlo approach to inference in multiple‐equation Markov‐switching models

Vector autoregressions with Markov‐switching parameters (MS‐VARs) offer substantial gains in data fit over VARs with constant parameters. However, Bayesian inference for MS‐VARs has remained challenging, impeding their uptake for empirical applications. We show that sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) estimators can accurately estimate MS‐VAR posteriors. Relative to multi‐step, model‐specific MCMC routines, SMC has the advantages of generality, parallelizability, and freedom from reliance on particular analytical relationships between prior and likelihood. We use SMC's flexibility to demonstrate that model selection among MS‐VARs can be highly sensitive to the choice of prior.     

Innovation,embeddedness and policy: evidence from life sciences in three UK regions

This paper draws upon a survey of the life science and biotechnology regions of Oxford, Central Scotland and South West England to examine the innovation and embeddedness traits of the regions. The insights into the compositional weaknesses and strengths of the regions suggest opportunities and threats for the future development of the UK's life sciences and biotechnology. The discussion moves forward debates on biotechnology, regional innovation, regional economic development and policy by posing research questions relating to the gap of knowledge of two under-researched regions, the need for a differentiated view of regions and a public policy approach tailored towards them, as well as the prospects of ‘engineering’ high-tech regions. Some of the highlighted policy challenges are common to the three regions, while others are region-specific and reflect the variations of regional make-up and stage of development.