The crucial role of financial intermediaries for facilitating trade among strangers

The Review of Austrian Economics - How are markets possible under conditions of anonymity and lack of repeat dealing? Many scholars consider the problem of fraud as one that must be dealt with by...     

Cohort versus patient level simulation for the economic evaluation of single versus combination immuno-oncology therapies in metastatic melanoma

Abstract

Background: Model structure, despite being a key source of uncertainty in economic evaluations, is often not treated as a priority for model development. In oncology, partitioned survival models (PSMs) and Markov models, both types of cohort model, are commonly used, but patient responses to newer immuno-oncology (I-O) agents suggest that more innovative model frameworks should be explored.

Objective: A discussion of the theoretical pros and cons of cohort level vs patient level simulation (PLS) models provides the background for an illustrative comparison of I-O therapies, namely nivolumab/ipilimumab combination and ipilimumab alone using patient level data from the CheckMate 067 trial in metastatic melanoma. PSM, Markov, and PLS models were compared on the basis of coherence with short-term clinical trial endpoints and long-term cost per QALY outcomes reported.

Methods: The PSM was based on Kaplan-Meier curves from CheckMate 067 with 3-year data on progression free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS). The Markov model used time independent transition probabilities based on the average trajectory of PFS and OS over the trial period. The PLS model was developed based on baseline characteristics hypothesized to be associated with disease as well as significant mortality and disease progression risk factors identified through a proportional hazards model.

Results: The short-term Markov model outputs matched the 1–3?year clinical trial results approximately as well as the PSMs for OS but not PFS. The fixed (average) cohort PLS results corresponded as well as the PSMs for OS in the combination therapy arm and PFS in the monotherapy arm. Over the lifetime horizon, the PLS produced an additional 5.95 quality adjusted life years (QALYs) associated with combination therapy relative to ipilimumab alone, resulting in an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of £6,474 per QALY, compared with £14,194 for the PSMs which gave an incremental benefit of between 2.2 and 2.4 QALYs. The Markov model was an outlier (～ £49,000 per QALY in the base case).

Conclusions: The 4- and 5-state versions of the PSM cohort model estimated in this study deviate from the standard 3-state approach to better capture I-O response patterns. Markov and PLS approaches, by modeling state transitions explicitly, could be more informative in understanding I-O immune response, the PLS particularly so by reflecting heterogeneity in treatment response. However, both require a number of assumptions to capture the immune response effectively. Better I-O representation with surrogate endpoints in future clinical trials could yield greater model validity across all models.     

The forced registration of hedge funds in the United States

This article recounts the history of hedge fund regulation in the United States over the last century, including Congressional legislation as well as legal cases mounted both by and against the Securities and Exchange Commission. Traditional arguments for and against hedge fund regulation are discussed. The article argues that neither hedge funds nor their managers should be regulated—whether directly or indirectly. Rather, financial or trusted advisors who recommend these products to investors should bear the regulatory burden.     

Chinese investment in Australian infrastructure assets: accounting for local public preferences

Chinese investment in Australian infrastructure assets can bring economic benefits for both countries. However, it can also create domestic political challenges. This is because Australian public support for foreign investment in infrastructure is limited. In order to better inform public policy and firm decision-making in both China and Australia, this paper undertakes a choice modelling analysis of original survey data to determine the drivers of local public preferences. The Australian public is found to be more concerned by the share of foreign ownership an investment will bring rather than the fact it is from China. Accounting for these preferences, such as through the recruitment of local partner companies, will facilitate Chinese investment in Australian infrastructure, and potentially, greater bilateral engagement on the Belt and Road Initiative. The Australian case might also offer wider lessons for Chinese investment in infrastructure assets abroad.     

Perspectives on U.S. Fiscal Policy

Under current policies the deficit may get to 7% of GDP in 10 years. Our political process is not coming to grips with responsible fiscal policy. We have both parties agreeing a deficit is a great way of attracting votes. Future increases in spending are coming from entitlements. We need incentives in health care to do things more efficiently and encourage competition. The biggest risk for the U.S. economy is the global bond market. We need to get moving. If not, eventually inflation, or a crisis of confidence, will be the wake-up call on the growth of U.S. debt.     

‘Becoming mainstream’: the professionalisation and corporatisation of digital nomadism

Digital nomadism, a mobile lifestyle that encompasses a wide array of professional endeavours, ranging from corporate remote workers to digital entrepreneurs, has benefitted from a steadily growing appeal. Despite this, there is a dearth of research exploring the premises and development of digital nomadism. This paper is concerned with the image of digital nomadism, its underlying structure and practices, and its relation to the current world of work. In order to explore these aspects and problematise digital nomadism, the paper traces the development of digital nomadism and takes inspiration from the Deleuzo-Guattarian image of the nomad. Adopting a qualitative approach to content analysis, this paper argues that digital nomadism is becoming increasingly institutionalised and professionalised, and, as such, is distant from the emancipatory dimension underlying its discourse and many of its cultural representations. Overall, digital nomadism appears as an extension of capitalist logics, rather than an alternative to them.     

Valuing product innovation: genetically engineered varieties in US corn and soybeans

We develop a discrete‐choice model of differentiated products for US corn and soybean seed demand to study the welfare impact of genetically engineered (GE) crop varieties. Using a unique data set spanning the period 1996–2011, we find that the welfare impact of the GE innovation is significant. In the last five years of the period analyzed, our preferred counterfactual indicates that total surplus due to GE traits was $5.18 billion per year, with seed manufacturers appropriating 56% of this surplus. The seed industry obtained more surplus from GE corn, whereas farmers received more surplus from GE soybeans.     

The Strange and Futile World of Trade Wars

U.S. President Donald Trump has a misguided, mercantilist view of international trade. He believes that an external (or “trade”) deficit is a “problem,” and that this deficit is caused by foreigners engaging in unfair trade practices. Accordingly, the president and his followers feel that the U.S. is being—and has long been—victimized by foreigners. The reality, however, is that the negative external balance in the U.S. is neither a “problem” nor is it attributable to foreigners engaging in nefarious activities. The U.S.'s negative external balance, which the country has registered every year since 1975, is “made in the USA.” External balances are always and everywhere homegrown; they are the reflection and the result of the relationship between domestic savings and domestic investment. And it is the gap between a country's savings and domestic investment that is the fundamental driver and determinant of its external balance. Specifically, the current account balance, or “trade deficit,” is the sum of the private savings‐investment gap and the public savings‐investment gap, or what is known as the “fiscal balance.” From 1972 until the end of 2018, for example, the cumulative private sector savings‐investment gap in the U.S. was a positive $12.8 trillion; that is, U.S. companies and individuals collectively saved—that is, earned and retained—some $12.8 trillion more than they consumed and invested domestically. But this positive balance was completely overshadowed by the cumulative negative government gap—or cumulative fiscal deficits—of $24.2 trillion during this 47‐year period. And thus the U.S. as a whole experienced a savings‐investment gap of negative $11.4 trillion that is entirely attributable to the country's fiscal deficits. What's more, the fact that the U.S. recorded a cumulative current account deficit of $11.5 trillion during this period confirms that the U.S. external deficits simply mirror what is happening in the U.S. domestic economy, just as the savings‐investment identity suggests. And, of course, the savings‐investment identity holds true for all countries, even those with significant external surpluses. Japan and China have both long experienced savings surpluses, and both have run current account surpluses that have mirrored their positive savings‐investment gaps. If the U.S. mercantilists understood what causes trade and current account deficits, they would direct their ire at profligate government spending rather than at foreigners. But they don't understand. And the leader of the mercantilists, President Trump, is flying blind and presiding over ever‐expanding fiscal deficits—which will only ensure that the current account deficits not just continue, but get bigger.     

Time,authenticity and photographic storytelling in The Museum of Innocence

ABSTRACT

Although an individual may recollect an event, such remembering is influenced by the wider social environment to which the individual belongs. Heritage tourism research has focused on the active contestation of performances of collective memories through specific material affordances such as photographs and souvenirs. More recent work has also examined the kinds of pictures and objects that people carry with them and use to reassemble memories, practices and even landscapes, thus remaking the materiality of places. However, memories are also reconstructed through intangible practices of storytelling, and the telling of a story can confer added authenticity to a material place. This paper explores these conceptual ideas through an examination of the intertextuality of the novel by Nobel Prize winning author Orhan Pamuk, The Museum of Innocence which has subsequently been turned into a museum in Istanbul dedicated to the characters depicted in the book. Based upon visual ethnographic fieldwork at the museum we argue that the story of the Museum of Innocence as well as the actual museum help us to understand how conceptualisations of time are interwoven with how we experience and perform authenticity.     

Institutional Constraints and the Forest Transition in Tropical Developing Countries

International Advances in Economic Research - The forest transition describes a reversal or turnaround in long-run land-use trends for a country or region from a period of net forest area loss to...