Pricing mortgage-backed securities in a multifactor interest rate environment: a multivariate density estimation approach

Multivariate density estimation (MDE) suggests that mortgage-backedsecurity (MBS) prices can be well described as a function ofthe level and slope of the term structure. We analyze how thisfunction varies across MBSs with different coupons. An importantfinding is that the interest rate level proxies for the moneynessof the option, the expected level of prepayments, and the averagelife of the cash flows, while the term structure slope controlsfor the average rate at which these cash flows should be discounted.     

An Anatomy of Price Dynamics in Illiquid Markets: Analysis and Evidence from Local Housing Markets

This research analyzes the dynamic properties of the difference equation that arises when markets exhibit serial correlation and mean reversion. We identify the correlation and reversion parameters for which prices will overshoot equilibrium ("cycles") and/or diverge permanently from equilibrium. We then estimate the serial correlation and mean reversion coefficients from a large panel data set of 62 metro areas from 1979 to 1995 conditional on a set of economic variables that proxy for information costs, supply costs and expectations. Serial correlation is higher in metro areas with higher real incomes, population growth and real construction costs. Mean reversion is greater in large metro areas and faster growing cities with lower construction costs. The average fitted values for mean reversion and serial correlation lie in the convergent oscillatory region, but specific observations fall in both the damped and oscillatory regions and in both the convergent and divergent regions. Thus, the dynamic properties of housing markets are specific to the given time and location being considered.     

Agricultural Extension: Good Intentions and Hard Realities

What considerations lead policymakers to invest in agriculturalextension as a key public responsibility, and what factors andagency incentives explain differences in extension system performance?To help answer these questions, this article provides a frameworkoutlining farmers' demand for information, the public goodscharacter of extension services, and the organizational andpolitical attributes affecting the performance of extensionsystems. This conceptual framework is used to analyze severalextension modalities and their likely and actual effectiveness.The analysis highlights the efficiency gains that can come fromlocally decentralized delivery systems with incentive structuresbased on largely private provision, although in most poorercountries extension services will remain publicly funded.      

Attitudes of Businessmen,Consumers, and Consumerists Toward Consumerism

Despite the apparent concern about consumerism issues by various groups, it appears that much of this concern has been based on speculation and casual observations. There is a paucity of empirical research regarding attitudes toward consumerism. This study is the first to assess the attitudes of businessmen, consumers and consumerists—all from the same geographic and market environmenttoward several important consumerism issues. The results, which show significant differences in various areas, have important policy implications for consumerists, politicians and businessmen.