Managerial capital,occupational choice and inequality in a global economy

This study proposes a simple theory of trade with endogenous firm productivity, occupational choice and income inequality. Individuals with different managerial talent choose to become entrepreneurs or workers. Entrepreneurs enhance firm productivity by investing in managerial capital. The model generates three income classes: low‐income workers facing the prospect of unemployment, middle‐income entrepreneurs managing domestic firms and high‐income entrepreneurs managing global firms. Trade liberalization policies raise unemployment and improve welfare. A reduction in per‐unit trade costs raises top incomes and generates labour‐market polarization. A reduction in fixed exporting costs has an ambiguous effect on top incomes and personal income distribution. Policies reducing labour‐market frictions or the costs of managerial‐capital acquisition create more jobs and improve welfare. The income distributional effects of labour‐market policies depend on which policy is implemented.     

Are bilateral and multilateral aid‐for‐trade complementary?

Using the first comprehensive estimates of ad valorem tariff equivalent bilateral trade costs spanning the time period 2002–10, we examine whether the aid‐for‐trade (AFT) inflows reduce bilateral trade costs facing aid recipients. If so, we ask whether the trade costs reduction effects of AFT from bilateral and multilateral sources are complementary. By showing the extent to which the observed trade cost reduction effects of AFT from bilateral (multilateral) sources correlate with the magnitudes of AFT disbursements from multilateral (bilateral) sources, we present plausible explanation for the cross‐country variations in the extent to which AFT promotes trade flows. Our findings have, thus, important policy implications for shaping future discourses on the coordination of disbursements for enhancing the effectiveness of AFT.     

RISK PREMIUM EFFECTS ON IMPLIED VOLATILITY REGRESSIONS

This article provides new insights into the sources of bias of option implied volatility to forecast its physical counterpart. We argue that this bias can be attributed to volatility risk premium effects. The latter are found to depend on high‐order cumulants of the risk‐neutral density. These cumulants capture the risk‐averse behavior of investors in the stock and option markets for bearing the investment risk that is reflected in the deviations of the implied risk‐neutral distribution from the normal distribution. We show that the bias of implied volatility to forecast its corresponding physical measure can be eliminated when the implied volatility regressions are adjusted for risk premium effects. The latter are captured mainly by the third‐order risk‐neutral cumulant. We also show that a substantial reduction of higher order risk‐neutral cumulants biases to predict their corresponding physical cumulants is supported when adjustments for risk premium effects are made.     

The Growth Effects of National Patent Policies*

We construct a two‐country (innovative North and imitating South) model of product‐cycle trade, fully endogenous Schumpeterian growth, and national patent policies. A move towards harmonization based on stronger Southern intellectual property rights (IPR) protection accelerates the long‐run global rates of innovation and growth, reduces the North–South wage gap, and has an ambiguous effect on the rate of international technology transfer. Patent harmonization constitutes a suboptimal global‐growth policy. However, if the global economy is governed by a common patent policy regime, then stronger global IPR protection: (a) increases the rates of global innovation and growth; (b) accelerates the rate of international technology transfer; and (c) has no impact on the North–South wage gap.     

Survival of the Most Foolish of Fools: The Limits of Evolutionary Selection Theory

The paper investigates whether evolutionary selection, in nature or the market, ensures the survival of rational agents. It argues that once rationality appears, evolutionary selection can account for its diffusion—but cannot account for its appearance in the first place. This issue differs from the investigation of whether history matters. The issue of history or path-dependency focuses on whether evolutionary selection can favor the survival of the potentially most productive apparatus (in the biological or technological sense). To show this, the paper commences with the much-neglected difference between efficiency and productivity. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

International Trade and Volume Patterns under Quasilinear Preferences

We formally analyze the pattern and volume of trade by embedding quasilinear preferences in the standard perfectly competitive, two‐factor, two‐good, two‐country trade model. Quasilinear preferences deliver a natural partition of the two goods into a luxury and a necessity, and preserve the validity of the Heckscher–Ohlin and Heckscher–Ohlin–Vanek theorems. In addition, the predicted factor content of trade under quasilinear preferences is smaller (larger) than the predicted factor content of trade under homothetic preferences if and only if the luxury good is capital (labor) intensive. This result offers a novel explanation for the “missing‐trade” mystery.     

Intraindustry trade and the skill premium: Theory and evidence

We explore theoretically and empirically the relationship between intraindustry trade and the skill premium. Our model features a Chamberlinian-type mechanism of income distribution based on quasi-homothetic consumer preferences, non-homothetic production, and factor-biased scale economies at the firm level. The analysis focuses on a two-country, one-sector model of intraindustry trade with two factor inputs consisting of high-skilled and low-skilled labor. We find that a move from autarky to free trade (a) raises the output of the representative firm and its level of total factor productivity, and (b) reduces (raises) the relative wage of high-skilled workers under the hypothesis of output-skill substitutability (output-skill complementarity). Plant-level evidence from Mexico supports the empirical relevance of the proposed income-distribution mechanism.