Asymptotic bias reduction for a conditional marginal effects estimator in sample selection models

In this article we discuss the differences between the average marginal effect and the marginal effect of the average individual in sample selection models, estimated by the Heckman procedure. We show that the bias that emerges as a consequence of interchanging the measures, could be very significant, even in the limit. We suggest a computationally cheap approximation method, which corrects the bias to a large extent. We illustrate the implications of our method with an empirical application of earnings assimilation and a small Monte Carlo simulation.     

Empirical evidence on the reaction speeds of housing prices and sales to demand shocks

This article studies the co-movement and dynamics between price movements and transactions in the housing market using data for the period 1988–2008 from Finland. While the previous related literature examines the reactions of sales and prices to an interest rate shock only, this study investigates the responses to income and debt shocks as well. The empirical estimations show that the response of prices to demand shocks is substantially slower than that of sales. The estimated reactions of sales substantially differ from those reported in the earlier literature. The reaction patterns can create the kind of strong positive co-movement between price movements and sales volume and the kind of negative correlation between price level and sales that have been found in several housing markets.     

Consumer involvement and acceptance of biotechnology in the European Union: a specific focus on Spain and the UK

Biotechnology stands out as a clear‐cut example of an industry where legislation on new technologies has been shown to be linked with public attitudes. Indeed, consumer consultation has played a leading role in the acceptance of genetically modified (GM) food as well as in government policy and legislation. This paper examines the issue of consumer consultation by analysing how public opinion has conditioned the acceptance of GM food in the European Union in general and specifically in Spain and the UK. We draw upon the evidence of two Eurobarometer surveys (46.1 and 52.1) to argue that consumer decision making on new technologies is an information‐dependent factor explaining consumer rejection to non‐transparent introduction of GM food. Individuals feel ill‐prepared to make decisions and rely on trusted information advisors such as consumer organizations. Findings suggest significant information dependency as well as widespread heterogeneity in attitudes towards the applications of biotechnology. Finally, the role played by information channels indicates that consumer participation should precede the adoption of communication policies, as they might need to adapt to the specific cultural characteristics of each country.     

Is foreign trade important for regional growth? Empirical evidence from Portugal

The aim of this study is to investigate whether openness, export shares or trade balances affect regional growth in Portugal. Human capital is also considered as a conditional factor to growth, expressed by the rate of success in high school education. Thus, we analyse whether the combination of international trade and human capital is relevant to explain regional growth in Portugal and how it affects the convergence process between regions. In the empirical analysis, interaction terms are introduced to explore the existence of different performances between regions of the Littoral and the Interior. As an alternative to the traditional approach that considers the population growth rate, we include the share of sectoral employment aiming to capture labour specialisation in the main sectors of economic activity and measure its impact on regional growth.The empirical analysis estimates the conditional convergence model of the Barro's type, applied to the Portuguese NUTS3 regions for the period 1996-2005. The GMM estimation approach applied to regional panel data reveals that factors associated with external trade, human capital and sectoral labour share (especially of the industrial sector) are relevant to explain regional growth and convergence in Portugal.     

The safety impact of land use changes resulting from bypass road constructions

This paper analyzes the effect of bypass construction on road safety, specifically crash rates on bypass segments and in bypassed communities. It further investigates the effect of bypass construction on those communities’ economic development through changes in the number and spatial distribution of businesses and residential development, and examines whether these changes affect the road-safety level. Finally, it evaluates the effect on road safety of various traffic arrangements implemented in such communities. Drawing on an extensive data collection, the study focuses on Arab cities in the Galilee region of Israel, using cross-sectional and longitudinal analysis.The results show that bypass construction does not necessarily reduce overall crash frequencies or crash rates. It merely shifts road crashes from the highways (the bypass roads) to inner roads (bypassed) and from there to local traffic, with no significant reduction. The findings indicate a large variance in the effects of bypass constructions on safety.     

The framing of risks and the communication of subjective probabilities for victimizations

What does ??likely?? mean, when respondents estimate the risk to become a victim of crime? Victimization risks can either be interpreted as gains (??being spared of offences??) or as losses (??becoming a victim of crime??). Because losses are perceived as more severe, respondents will state lower subjective victimization probabilities in the loss-frame, compared to the gain-frame. We demonstrate such a framing-effect with data from an experimental survey. Furthermore, we show that the meaning of vague quantifiers varies with the frequency and the severity of the event. Respondents assign to the same vague quantifiers (e.g. ??unlikely??) higher likelihoods in terms of percentages for frequent and for less severe events than for infrequent and for severe events. In conclusion, respondents do not use vague quantifiers consistently so that it is problematic to compare subjective risks for different victimizations.     

On consensus through communication without a commonly known protocol

The present paper extends the standard model of pairwise communication among Bayesian agents to cases where the structure of the communication protocol is not commonly known. We show that, even under standard strict conditions on the structure of the protocols and the nature of the transmitted signals, a consensus may never be reached if very little asymmetric information about the protocol is introduced.