Model risk in credit risk

We provide sharp analytical upper and lower bounds for value‐at‐risk (VaR) and sharp bounds for expected shortfall (ES) of portfolios of any dimension subject to default risk. To do so, the main methodological contribution of the paper consists in analytically finding the convex hull generators for the class of exchangeable Bernoulli variables with given mean and for the class of exchangeable Bernoulli variables with given mean and correlation in any dimension. Using these analytical results, we first describe all possible dependence structures for default, in the class of finite sequences of exchangeable Bernoulli random variables. We then measure how model risk affects VaR and ES.     

Pricing and Hedging Credit Derivatives with Copulas

In this paper, we apply a copula function pricing technique to the evaluation of credit derivatives, namely a vulnerable default put option and a credit switch. Also in this case, copulas enable one to separate the specification of marginal default probabilities from their dependence structure. Their use is based here on no–arbitrage arguments, which provide pricing bounds and easy–to–implement super–replication strategies.
At a second stage, we specify the copula function to be a mixture one. In this case, we obtain closed form prices and hedges, which we calibrate on real market data. For the sake of comparison, we add a Clayton calibration.
(J.E.L: G11, G12).     

Quality improvement and redesign of performance measurement systems: an application to the academic field

The increasing competition both in the public and private sectors gave rise to a growing interest in quality improvement and in designing and implementing Performance Measurement Systems (PMS). Academic organizations also recognized the need for implementing performance measurement systems. Some recent works on PMS in the higher education make use of the Kaplan and Norton’s Balanced Scorecard (BSC) to translate the characteristic strategic goals (e.g. research and teaching excellence) into performance measures. However, a PMS needs to be updated when external or internal changes influence the organization modus operandi. In this way a continuous quality improvement of organization performance is required. This paper describes a methodology based on the BSC model to redesign a current PMS. In detail, a reference BSC-check matrix is proposed. A “mapping analysis” of the current PMS is developed to understand if all the operational aspects involved in goals achievement are considered and if proper indicators have been defined. As an example, the methodology is applied to a Department of the authors’ own University. The paper shows also how the proposed approach can be extended to other contexts.     

The environmental,social and economic effects of recent technological changes in sugarcane on the State of São Paulo,Brazil

From 2007 to 2017, the Agro‐Environmental Protocol of the Sugar and Energy Sector was in force, an agreement between sugarcane mill owners and the State Government of São Paulo, Brazil, proposing to eliminate sugarcane burning as a method to facilitate the harvest. Simultaneously, the sugarcane harvest was becoming widely mechanized while, under the interests of capital accumulation, the mills were entering the information and communication technology era and providing the agricultural processes with more precise and immediate management and technological controls, similar to those implemented in the mills' administrative and industrial operations in the 1990s. Short‐term factors, including environmental factors, favoured sugarcane technological changes. As a result, there was a mass layoff of rural workers and an increasing number of people/workers in agricultural mechanization, transportation and maintenance of machinery and administrative as well. The whole process highlighted the differences between mills, resulting in small and medium sugarcane farmers and mills to become the most impacted, in operational and financial terms, by the accelerating mechanization of the sugarcane industry as a whole.     

Time-consistency of risk measures: how strong is such a property?

Decisions in Economics and Finance - Quite recently, a great interest has been devoted to time-consistency of risk measures in its different formulations (see Delbaen in Memoriam Paul-André...     

VFR travel: It is underestimated

Visiting Friends and Relatives (VFR) travel is a substantial form of tourism worldwide. In Australia, official data measure VFR in one of two ways - purpose of visit or type of accommodation. However, this is only a measurement of those factors; it is not a measure of the size by volume of VFR travel. Yet tourism practitioners often mistakenly use these data to state the size of VFR travel in their destination. Based on quantitative research undertaken in three contrasting destinations in Australia, estimates for the size of VFR travel in those destinations is provided. These results highlight that using official data for measuring VFR travel will underestimate this segment in any Australian destination. Using the VFR definitional model as a conceptual model, this research has estimated that VFR travel represents 48% of Australia’s total overnight tourism market.     

Revising the Corporate Social Performance Model – Towards Knowledge Creation for Sustainable Development

The objective of this paper is to offer a revision of the corporate social performance (CSP) model. CSP exemplifies how corporate social responsibility translates into an organization's practice by focusing on three key features of performance: principles, processes and outcomes. However, the development of the model has not kept pace with the literature on social and environmental responsibility. This study builds on an argument that if corporate social responsibility in general – in which CSP plays an important role – is to respond to the challenges of sustainable development, the CSP of businesses could be more profoundly planned in order to design knowledge outcomes that contribute to meeting those challenges. The paper thus answers the recent call for the development of a CSP model by revising some of the key elements in the existing model and also by adding a knowledge creation dimension. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd and ERP Environment