Can conditional cash transfer programs serve as safety nets in keeping children at school and from working when exposed to shocks?

Income shocks on poor households are known to induce parents to take their children out of school and send them to work when other risk-coping instruments are insufficient. State dependence in school attendance further implies that these responses to short-run shocks have long-term consequences on children's human capital development. Conditional cash transfer (CCT) programs, where the condition is on school attendance, have been shown to be effective in increasing educational achievements and reducing child work. We ask the question here of whether or not children who benefit from conditional transfers are protected from the impacts of shocks on school enrollment and work. We develop a model of a household's decision regarding child school and work under conditions of a school re-entry cost, conditional transfers, and exposure to shocks. We take model predictions to the data using a panel from Mexico's Progresa experience with randomized treatment. Results show that there is strong state dependence in school enrollment. We find that the conditional transfers helped protect enrollment, but did not refrain parents from increasing child work in response to shocks. These results reveal that CCT programs can provide an additional benefit to recipients in acting as safety nets for the schooling of the poor.     

Container freight rates and the role of surcharges

This paper demonstrates that the structure of ocean container freight rates has become more complex. A growing number of surcharges are being imposed by the carriers on their customers, surcharges that are not only adding significant extra costs but are highly variable over time. These elements are examined based on a data set of export rates from ports on the Northern European Range that have been compiled from a major global carrier. The paper compares the surcharges to the base rates and discusses some of the implications for shippers who face increasing uncertainty in planning supply chains. Some of the issues for academic research on freight rates is also examined and points to the need to clearly identify what is included in the freight rate data employed. In addition, questions are raised concerning the suitability of many of the variables traditionally used to explain or predict freight rates.     

Leibniz und Cournot

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