The education pillar of the Europe 2020 strategy: a convergence analysis

Empirica - In March 2010, the European Commission launched the Europe 2020 strategy ‘for smart, sustainable and inclusive growth’ in the EU. Education is a major pillar of the Europe...     

Stock market volatility forecasting: Do we need high-frequency data?

The general consensus in the volatility forecasting literature is that high-frequency volatility models outperform low-frequency volatility models. However, such a conclusion is reached when low-frequency volatility models are estimated from daily returns. Instead, we study this question considering daily, low-frequency volatility estimators based on open, high, low, and close daily prices. Our data sample consists of 18 stock market indices. We find that high-frequency volatility models tend to outperform low-frequency volatility models only for short-term forecasts. As the forecast horizon increases (up to one month), the difference in forecast accuracy becomes statistically indistinguishable for most market indices. To evaluate the practical implications of our results, we study a simple asset allocation problem. The results reveal that asset allocation based on high-frequency volatility model forecasts does not outperform asset allocation based on low-frequency volatility model forecasts.     

The European high-speed train network: Predicted effects on accessibility patterns

The principal aim of this paper is to evaluate the impact of the future European high-speed train network on accessibility, by reducing time distance between places and modifying their relative location. We compare the current situation with that foreseen for the year 2010, according to the Outline Plan of the European High-Speed Train Network, in order to analyse which areas will most benefit from construction and improvement of the infrastructure. It is hypothesized that the high-speed train will certainly bring the peripheral regions closer to the central ones, but will also increase imbalances between the main cities and their hinterlands. A weighted average distance indicator is applied for this purpose. This measure identifies the spatial distribution of accessibility in the area of study, emphasizing the infrastructure effects, and locates accessibility changes at the European level. A Geographic Information System (GIS) has been used to carry out this study.     

Mapping the motivations and intentions of technology orientated entrepreneurs

The role of entrepreneurs in stimulating growth in the small business economy has received significant interest in the last three decades. This growing interest is prompted, in part, by the government’s assumption that the establishment and expansion of existing small firms could be greatly enhanced by the promotion of entrepreneurial education programmes in colleges and universities. Whilst there has been significant interest in the role, type and effect of entrepreneurs in the economy, few studies have examined the effect of entrepreneurial programmes on the progression of an idea through to commercialisation. This is because such research, whilst seemingly desirable, is problematic. Evidence can be gleaned through the development of suitable conceptual frameworks and methods, to assess the role and impact of entrepreneurial programmes on the commercialisation of products or processes, and the enhancement of entrepreneurial capabilities. To address this problem, the research will examine different approaches and frameworks that have been developed and applied hitherto. The objective of this will be to highlight the difficulties in assessing the motivations, cognitive and behavioural changes of entrepreneurs. Also, the research will demonstrate the need to undertake adequate controls, which illustrate possible improvement in entrepreneurial capabilities, networks, and credibility in comparison to students that embarked on courses without entrepreneurial elements. The process will confine itself to business development within the higher education (HEI) context. The MSEC has as its remit to provide opportunity, education, awareness and training to foster entrepreneurship within science and engineering departments across four universities in Greater Manchester. This setting will provide a unique situation in which to investigate the development of germinal technology businesses from the inception of an idea to the point of incubation, prototype development and investment. There is a requirement to understand the needs of the virgin entrepreneur, possible obstacles to commercialisation and the process of new venture creation. The methodology to be adopted has been identified, and forges new ground on combining positivist and phenomenological paradigms. The multi–paradigm approach supports the use of critical incident technique to reveal greater insights in to the personal and cognitive development of virginal entrepreneurs, the suitability of enterprise programmes to act as catalysts for venture creation, and their role in supporting technology transfer. The research will not only confine itself to examining undergraduate and postgraduate projects within MSEC’s business creation unit, but will also continue to assess the experience of entrepreneurs’ when they leave the programme. The research also documents the economic contribution of the programme, in terms of generation of new technology–based firms and the impact of entrepreneurs joining established small firms. Ultimately the aim is to build a long–term picture of the role of enterprise programmes in HEIs that will inform policy and practice.     

Network neutrality and the nature of competition between network operators

The neutral architecture of the Internet is being challenged by various parties, such as network operators providing the connections to end-users, who are interested in gaining control of the information exchanged over the Internet. What are the effects on competition and welfare of such practices? Currently, there exists very little economic theory on network neutrality. This paper provides a preliminary analysis of the type of economic modeling that can address network neutrality, as well as of the type of results that can be expected.     

The endless need for regulation in telecommunication: An explanation

Telecommunication services have existed as a legal monopoly nearly throughout its entire history. In 1998, telecom market liberalisation was achieved across the European Union (EU) through the introduction of competition among telephone services. Asymmetrical obligations were deemed necessary in order to compensate the market power of the former monopolist.As the evolution of asymmetrical regulation in Spain illustrates, obligations and the telecommunications operators subject to them increased with the regulatory framework established in 2002 in the EU. This new regulatory framework may continue to expand through the inclusion of functional separation as another possible asymmetrical obligation. In short, it seems that the regulatory pressure on the telecommunications industry is increasing, despite the lapse in time since the liberalisation of the industry.In this paper, a methodology developed by the Austrian School of Economics is applied in order to explain why the telecommunication market is subject to increasing regulation in Europe, rather than deregulation, after more than 10 years of liberalisation. In particular, Mises's theory of price control is used to explain the evolution of the regulation of local loop unbundling.     

Speculative attack against the Hungarian forint

In mid-January 2003 a severe speculative attack was launched against the exchange rate of the Hungarian forint. The attack was very unusual in the history of foreign exchange speculations, since it was aimed at enforcing the appreciation — and not the depreciation — of the currency targeted. The specific nature of this kind of speculation is closely related to Hungary’s accession to the European Union in general and to EMU in particular. Since the other Central and Eastern European acceding countries face similar problems and challenges, the Hungarian experience may involve some instructive lessons on monetary and economic policy for them too.     

Liberalisation and de-regulation of the public sector in the transition from plan to market

The above analysis allows several conclusions to be drawn:

Dominance Statistics: A Simulation Study on the d Statistic

Quality &; Quantity - Cliff (1993) has proposed the use of a measure of effect size alternative to traditionalmean differences: δ {? = Pr(xi1 &;gt; xj2) - Pr(xi1 &;lt; xj2)}which,...