Price or quantity setting under uncertain demand and capacity constraints: An examination of the profits

This article considers price formation and quantity setting of a capacity-constrained risk-neutral firm facing uncertain demand. It is shown that the optimal price of a price-setting risk-neutral monopolist decreases with demand uncertainty. With a strictly convex demand function expected profits increase with uncertainty for a quantity-setting monopolist whereas expected profits decrease for a price-setting monopolist. Furthermore, similar results on the effect of uncertainty are derived for a differentiated goods industry.     

On the existence of involuntary unemployment equilibria

Conclusion We have proved the existence of equilibria implying involuntary unemployment of labour in non-competitive economies with fixed wage rate. We notice that model (II) and its extensions have not been presented as aninterpretation of Keynes' theory. We may define them as Keynesian models only in the sense that they admit involuntary unemployment equilibrium, which concept is basic to Keynes' theory. In any case, we think that these models are a first step in the development of more realistic microeconomic foundations for short-run macroeconomic theory.A first draft of this paper was presented in December 1972 at the Institute of Political Economy, Faculty of Economics and Banking, Siena University.     

Two Paradigms and Nobel Prizes in Economics: a Contradiction or Coexistence?

Abstract Markowitz and Sharpe won the Nobel Prize in Economics for the development of Mean‐Variance (M‐V) analysis and the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM). Kahneman won the Nobel Prize in Economics for the development of Prospect Theory. In deriving the CAPM, Sharpe, Lintner and Mossin assume expected utility (EU) maximisation in the face of risk aversion. Kahneman and Tversky suggest Prospect Theory (PT) as an alternative paradigm to EU theory. They show that investors distort probabilities, make decisions based on change of wealth, exhibit loss aversion and maximise the expectation of an S‐shaped value function, which contains a risk‐seeking segment. Can these two apparently contradictory paradigms coexist? We show in this paper that although CPT (and PT) is in conflict to EUT, and violates some of the CAPM's underlying assumptions, the Security Market Line Theorem (SMLT) of the CAPM is intact in the CPT framework. Therefore, the CAPM is intact also in CPT framework.     

Performance-weighted ensembles of random forests for predicting price impact

For any large player in financial markets, the impact of their trading activity represents a substantial proportion of transaction costs. This paper proposes a novel machine learning algorithm for predicting the price impact of order book events. Specifically, we introduce a prediction system based on ensembles of random forests (RFs). The system is trained and tested on depth-of-book data from the BATS and Chi-X exchanges and performance is benchmarked using ensembles of other popular regression algorithms including: linear regression, neural networks and support vector regression. The results show that recency-weighted ensembles of RFs produce over 15% greater prediction accuracy on out-of-sample data, for 5 out of 6 timeframes studied, compared with all benchmarks. Feature importance ranking is used to explore the significance of various market features on the price impact, finding them to be highly variable through time. Finally, a novel procedure for extracting the directional effects of features is proposed and used to explore the features most dominant in the price formation process.     

The diffusion of a new telecommunication service : Network constraints and service quality in a dynamic interpretative model

In this paper, a discrete time model for the adoption of a new telecommunication service is proposed. We analyze the interaction of three sets of agents involved in the process: users, information providers, and network providers. We consider the effects of the network constraint and of the expectations of the users and suppliers.     

A fuzzy set theory based computational model to represent the quality of inter-rater agreement

In this paper we present a method to evaluate the quality of a rater’s judgement, which can integrate and enrich the use of inter-rater agreement as a reliability measure. Our proposal is an integrative one and evaluates the quality of a rater’s performance through an analysis of the profile of that individual rater’s performance. We discuss its rationale on the basis of the interpretation of inter-rater agreement, highlighting some critical issues. For this purpose, we adopt a computational model based on fuzzy set theory, demonstrating its main characteristics with an exemplary case study.     

Continuity,Change, and New Product Performance: The Role of Stream Concentration*

Product development teams often face the challenge of designing radically new products that cater at the same time to the revealed tastes and expectations of existing customers. In new product development projects, this tension guides critical choices about continuity or change concerning product attributes and team composition. Research suggests these choices interact, but it is not clear whether they are complements or substitutes and if the level of change in one should match or not the level of change in the other. In this article, we examine the interaction between product attribute change, team change, and a new team-level factor, which we term stream concentration, as it captures differences among team members in terms of familiarity with the knowledge domain of the new product being developed. We measure stream concentration as team members’ prior NPD experience within a given set of products and assess its impacts on the management of change in new product development projects using longitudinal data from the music industry. We analyze 2621 new product development projects between 1962 and 2008 involving 34,265 distinct team members. Results show that stream concentration is a critical factor in new product development projects that, together with product attributes and team composition, affects new product performance. We discuss implications for research and practice.     

The effects of environmental policies on the abatement investment decisions of a green firm

This paper focuses on environmental policies aimed at rising investment in pollution abatement capital. We assume that ecological uncertainty, i.e., uncertainty over the dynamics of pollution, affects firm investment decisions. Capital irreversibility is not postulated but endogenized using a quadratic adjustment cost function. Using this framework, we study the effects of environmental policies considering taxes on polluting inputs and subsidies to reduce the cost of abatement capital. Environmental policies promoted to enforce abatement capital may generate the unexpected result of reducing the abatement investment rate.     

Two remarks on the inner core

For the case of smooth concave exchange economies, we provide a characterization of the inner core as the set of feasible allocations such that no coalition can improve on it, even if coalitions are allowed to use some random plans. For the case of compactly generated games, we discuss Myerson's definition of the inner core, and we characterize it using lexicographic utility weight systems.     

Why is Corruption Tolerated?

It is maintained that a closer analysis of the features of the underlying contract reveals that under many circumstances corruption is in fact a rational and understandable reaction to institutional failures, which are often far from accidental. Sometimes it can even be considered legitimate, when instrumental in achieving goals shared by the vast majority of the electorate.To this purpose, three different stylized institutional frameworks are analyzed: developed, totalitarian and transition countries. The origin, scope and consequences of corruption vary significantly across the different frameworks. The normative conclusions should therefore be adjusted accordingly.