MODEL COMPARISONS IN UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENTS

The goal of this article is to develop formal tests to evaluate the relative in‐sample performance of two competing, misspecified, nonnested models in the presence of possible data instability. Compared to previous approaches to model selection, which are based on measures of global performance, we focus on the local relative performance of the models. We propose tests that are based on different measures of local performance and that correspond to different null and alternative hypotheses. The empirical application provides insights into the time variation in the performance of a representative Euro‐area Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium model relative to that of VARs.     

The dynamic interrelation between external finance and bank credit

This article studies the interrelation among the volumes of bonds and stocks issued by non-financial firms, and levels of industrial loans outstanding in the United States. These aggregates are co-integrated and characterized by asymmetric volatility. Their co-movements are driven by financial indicators such as the yield spread, size of loan market and market volatility. Bond and stock issuance are positively correlated, and even more so during the expansionary phase of the cycle. Loans outstanding and bond issuance are negatively correlated, and their substitutability increases in periods of economic downturn, highlighting the importance of bond markets to mitigate credit crunches.     

A new way of looking at old things. An application of Guttman errors analysis to the study of environmental concern

This study shows how Guttman errors analysis can be applied to social research. In this work, the method is used in the study of environmental concern. The new instrument usefully chart also ways in which less evident forms of engagements may be recognized. The study uses data from the 2000 World Values Survey and International Social Survey Programme. First, Mokken Scale Analysis is applied to build a cumulative scale of mobilization for the defense of the environment. Second, Guttman errors are analyzed to identify specific patterns of activism. The analysis of the indexes enable the isolation of an often elusive phenomenon not shown by other techniques: the presence of individuals with a pronounced degree of activism but who do not share the attitudes of the majority of environmentalists. These particular patterns might constitute specific ways to relate to the environment. Guttman errors analysis can be fruitfully applied in measurement of attitudes or behavior. In particular, it can shed light on the presence of individual that sociological research should consider, study and label separately.     

Linear household technologies

This paper discusses, estimates and formally compares the best known procedures for incorporating demographic variables into complete demand systems. In particular, a class of general procedures belonging to Gorman's family of ‘general linear household technologies’ is introduced. Estimation and comparison of different procedures make use of Italian household budget data for the years 1973–1992, incorporating a single demographic variable (family size) into a Generalized Quadratic Almost Ideal Demand System. In our empirical example, however, even the most general household technologies are unable to fully capture the behavioural heterogeneity shown by the data. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The reaction of asset markets to Swiss National Bank communication

In this paper we analyze high-frequency movements in Swiss asset markets in reaction to real-time communication by the Swiss National Bank. Our analysis of central bank communication encompasses monetary policy announcements, speeches and interviews. We examine the reactions of the currency market, the bond market and the stock exchange. The evidence suggests that speeches and interviews, along with monetary policy announcements, engender a significant price reaction. This paper sheds light on the relevance of communications other than monetary policy announcements.     

Macroeconomic uncertainty indices for the Euro Area and its individual member countries

This paper introduces the Rossi and Sekhposyan (Am Econ Rev 105(5): 650–655, 2015) uncertainty index for the Euro Area and its member countries. The index captures how unexpected a forecast error associated with a realization of a macroeconomic variable is relative to the unconditional distribution of forecast errors. Furthermore, it can differentiate between upside and downside uncertainty, which could be relevant for addressing a variety of economic questions. The index is particularly useful since it can be constructed for any country/variable for which point forecasts and realizations are available. We show the usefulness of the index in studying the heterogeneity of uncertainty across Euro Area countries as well as the spillover effects via a network approach.