The Economics of School Quality

Abstract. Recent national concerns about student performance on PISA tests and similar assessments appear warranted because of the direct relationship between student cognitive skills and both individual earnings and national growth. The evidence on the impacts of school quality indicates very large economic effects. Available research shows, however, that improving school quality is difficult and not closely related to spending levels. One approach supported by research is improving teacher quality, which can yield sizable gains in student performance. Instituting appropriate policies to alter the teacher force will necessarily take significant time.     

Games with Imperfectly Observable Commitment

[1]claims that, in models of commitment, “the first-mover advantage is eliminated when there is aslightamount of noise associated with the observation of the first-mover's selection.” We show that the validity of this claim depends crucially on the restriction to pure strategy equilibria. The game analyzed by Bagwell always has a mixed equilibrium that is close to the Stackelberg equilibrium when the noise is small. Furthermore, an equilibrium selection theory that combines elements from the theory of[7]with elements from the theory of [6], actually selects this “noisy Stackelberg equilibrium.”Journal of Economic LiteratureClassification Number: C72.     

An Analysis of Closed-end Fund Seasoned Equity Offerings

We examine the stock price reaction to seasoned equity offerings (SEOs) of closed‐end funds and the determinants of the issuance decision. We find that sample funds have negative and significant average announcement‐day returns that are less than the returns associated with industrial firm SEOs, most likely because funds have fewer information asymmetries. Issuing funds have higher pre‐issue returns, higher premiums, lower betas, and lower three‐year, post‐issue returns than nonissuing funds. The results of the study are consistent with the argument that fund managers time issues to take advantage of mean reversion in fund returns.     

Persistence and Predictability of Skewness in Country Equity Market Returns

This article explores the skewness characteristics of eighteen developed country equity market returns. The empirical results indicate that country skewness tends to have the same sign for different measurement intervals. Also, the magnitude of country skewness increases as the measurement interval increases. Further, the results indicate that positive skewness is not a predominant phenomenon. In addition, this study examines the predictability of country skewness using a Spearman Rank Order test and an autoregression test. The findings generally indicate that past monthly country skewness could not be used to reliably predict the extent of skewness of future periods.

     

GAME-THEORETIC ANALYSIS OF CHINA's WTO ACCESSION

Abstract.  This paper studies the determination of split of total surplus among the negotiating parties (member countries and the acceding country) in a WTO accession negotiation using a sequential bargaining model. In particular, we are interested in the effect of the most-favored-nation (MFN) principle on the negotiation outcome. The MFN principle says that any tariff reduction offered by the applicant for accession has to be automatically granted to all existing members. The model suggests that it is quite plausible that China's share of surplus is more when MFN is in place.     

Accounting Returns Revisited: Evidence of their Usefulness in Estimating Economic Returns

Accounting information is used for measuring firm performance in various financial applications—a practice supported by empirical studies demonstrating the value relevance of accounting numbers, but disputed by theoretical papers arguing that a firm's accounting rate of return (ARR) serves poorly as a proxy for its internal rate of return (IRR). We derive a new model of the ARR–IRR relation, and describe how the conservatism of GAAP constrains a firm's IRR to fall in a range bounded by its historical growth rate and ARR. Using cross-sectional data, we demonstrate that economic returns can be estimated from accounting numbers for many firms. We link empirical results to underlying economic theory, and thus contribute to understanding why accounting information is value relevant.