The Effect of Policyholder Transfer Behavior on the Value of Guaranteed Minimum Death Benefits

Abstract

Variable annuity contracts frequently include both guaranteed minimum death benefit (GMDB) options and options to transfer funds between fixed and variable accounts. We model the difference between fixed and variable rates as the primary determinant of policyholder transfer behavior. We find that people tend to transfer their money into variable accounts at about 39% of the rate that would be required to maintain constant percentage rebalancing, but with the opposite sign. If these transfers are not taken into account, the GMDB options on the variable accounts will be overvalued and overhedged. Ignoring this effect can have a substantial impact on the size of the futures portfolio needed to hedge this risk and a nonnegligible impact on the earnings of the variable annuity portfolio.     

Heterogeneity effects from market interventions

The aim of this paper is to test whether the European Commission activities generate a heterogeneity effect on the merging parties. A sample of 74 firms involved in 45 contested merger and acquisition operations during the years 1990 to 1999 is used. The methodology is based on the GARCH framework. The main result is that, globally, the DGC interventions seem not to reduce significantly the heterogeneity among investors, except for the operations where it takes strong decisions like prohibition. In these last cases, the signal coming from the DGC encompasses valuable information and is well understood by market participants.     

An Examination of the Interaction Between Modelling and Its Relationship with Construction Kits: Lessons from the Past and for the Future

Construction kits have played a significant part in nurturing the growth and development of the minds and manipulation-based skills of children (and adults) in formal and non-formal education settings. These kits have origins rooted in the representation of the built world and now have a diversity of form and function, including technical versions with moving parts. This article examines some of the historically based ideas that lie behind the role that kits may have in terms of physical modelling. The article traces the transformation of kits from simple bricks and blocks into more complicated pieces for space-filling and achieving the transfer of forces and motion. This transformation occurred during the Victorian era when the influence of the ideas of educationalists and, perhaps rather strangely, exponents of early aviation, played major roles in determining the diversity of forms of construction kit and modelled possibilities that are now to be seen in classrooms and homes. The article ends with a review of some of the lessons from the past and present that will need to be considered in relation to concrete modelling in schools for the future. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

The Year in Review: Economics at the Antitrust Division, 2005–2006

This paper covers the activities of the Economic Analysis Group (EAG) of the Antitrust Division, U.S. Department of Justice, during 2005–2006. It describes the economic analysis undertaken by EAG in several important investigations, appellate matters, and other activities as an advocate for competition.The views contained herein are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily represent those of the U.S. Department of Justice.     

More preventive care, and fewer emergency room visits and prescription drugs--health care utilization in a consumer-driven health plan

Although consumer-driven health plans (CDHPs) have grown dramatically, the question of whether CDHPs have reduced health care costs has not been answered definitively. This article presents what the authors believe to be the first study to analyze a large sample of claims data and to look in detail at different types of utilization among enrollees in a CDHP and those in a traditional comprehensive major medical (CMM) plan. After adjusting for the finding that CDHP enrollees are both younger and healthier than those in CMM plans, the authors found that CDHP enrollees show no consistent or significant utilization differences for measures over which consumers have little control (e.g., inpatient stays); lower utilization for measures over which consumers have greater control (e.g., emergency room visits); and higher utilization of preventive services.     

Speeding Up the Pace of New Product Development

This study empirically investigates a wide array of factors that have been argued to differentiate fast from slow innovation processes from the perspective of the research and development organization. We test the effects of strategic orientation (criteria- and scope-related variables) and organizational capability (staffing- and structuring-related variables) on the speed of 75 new product development projects from ten large firms in several industries. Backward-elimination regression analysis revealed that (a) clear time-goals, longer tenure among team members, and parallel development increased speed, whereas (b) design for manufacturability, frequent product testing, and computer-aided design systems decreased speed. However, when projects were sorted by magnitude of change, different factors were found to influence the speed of radical and incremental projects. Moreover, some factors that sped up radical innovation (e.g., concept clarity, champion presence, co-location) were found to slow down incremental innovation. Together, the radical and incremental models explain differences in speed better than the general model. This suggests a contingency approach to speeding up innovation. Implications for researchers and managers are discussed.