The Monetary Transmission Mechanism, Non-residential Fixed Investment and Housing

We specify a vector autoregression (VAR) model for the U.S. for 1980–2008 to investigate the statistical causal relationships between private non-residential fixed investment, the effective Federal funds rate, personal consumption expenditures, nonfinancial corporate profits, and the nonfinancial corporate credit market debt to test the validity of macroeconomic relationships in a macro model. The VAR utilizes the Toda-Yamamote procedure to test for Granger causality. Our preliminary results show that the transmission mechanism does not work as expected; we find that fixed investment depends on the level of demand in the economy and profits but not on the interest rate. This casts doubt on the usual assumptions about how the monetary transmission mechanism is expected to work. The second part of the paper investigates the effects of the change in the monetary regime towards low and stable interest rates, a policy pursued by the U.S. Fed since the beginning of the 1990s. We find that the new monetary policy regime has the following effects: (1) our VAR model does not support the hypothesis that low interest rates lead to higher fixed nonresidential investment; (2) low interest rates led to a search for higher yields through increasing risk, and (3) they led to an increase in the demand for securitized assets, especially mortgage-backed securities, which eventually resulted in a housing bubble. The overall results therefore raise doubts about the effectiveness of low interest rates as a policy regime designed as a component of a counter-cyclical policy.     

The Non-Trivial Choice between Innovation Indicators

We discuss the strengths and weaknesses of five alternative innovation indicators: R&D, patent applications, total innovation expenditure and shares in sales taken by imitative and by innovative products as they were measured in the 1992 Community Innovation Survey (CIS) in the Netherlands. We conclude that the two most commonly used indicators (R&D and patent applications) have more (and more severe) weaknesses than is often assumed. Moreover, our factor analysis suggests that there is little correlation between the various indicators. This underlines the empirical relevance of various sources of bias of innovation indicators as discussed in this paper.     

The knowledge spillover theory of entrepreneurship

According to the knowledge spillover theory of entrepreneurship, the context in which decision-making is derived can influence one’s determination to become an entrepreneur. In particular, a context that is rich in knowledge generates entrepreneurial opportunities from those ideas. By commercializing ideas that evolved from an incumbent organization via the creation of a new firm, the entrepreneur (human capital) not only serves as a conduit for the spillover of knowledge, but also for the ensuing innovative activity and enhanced economic performance through resource allocation. The knowledge spillover theory of entrepreneurship brings together contemporary theories and thoughts of entrepreneurship with prevailing theories of economic growth, geography, and strategy and therefore explains not just why some people choose to become an entrepreneur, but also why this matters significantly for the economy and society.     

The Labour Input Response to Permanent Changes in Output: An Errors-in-Variables Analysis Based on Panel Data

Using panel data for Norwegian manufacturing, we revisit 'the increasing returns to scale puzzle' for labour inputs. We consider the response of the input of white-collar workers, blue-collar workers, and blue-collar worker hours to permanent changes in output. Permanent and temporary changes in output are treated as latent variables. We compare OLS, IV, and GMM estimates of the response elasticities and conclude that the distinction between permanent and temporary changes is essential. Our GMM estimates suggest that the 'increasing returns to scale puzzle' remains for all measures of the labour input also when we consider their response to permanent changes in output. For materials, the output response indicates approximately constant returns to scale. This suggests non-homotheticity of the production technology.
JEL classification : C 23; J 23     

质量调整生命年：挑战

一、简介 Weinstein等人阐述了QALY的概念、方法及暗含的假设。尽管引起了许多有趣的争论，但本文仅限于对我们认为最具挑战性的四个争论点进行研究。     

How Today's Consumers Perceive Tomorrow's Smart Products*

This paper investigates consumer responses to new smart products. Due to the application of information technology, smart products are able to collect, process, and produce information and can be described as “thinking” for themselves. In this study, 184 consumers respond to smart products that are characterized by two different combinations of smartness dimensions. One group of products shows the smartness dimensions of autonomy, adaptability, and reactivity. Another group of smart products are multifunctional and able to cooperate with other products. Consumer responses to these smart products are measured in terms of the innovation attributes of relative advantage, compatibility, observability, complexity, and perceived risk. The study shows that products with higher levels of smartness are perceived to have both advantages and disadvantages. Higher levels of product smartness are mainly associated with higher levels of observability and perceived risk. The effects of product smartness on relative advantage, compatibility, and complexity vary across product smartness dimensions and across product categories. For example, higher levels of product autonomy are perceived as increasingly advantageous whereas a high level of multifunctionality is perceived disadvantageous. The paper discusses the advantages and pitfalls for each of the five product smartness dimensions and their implications for new product development and concludes with a discussion of the limitations of the study and suggestions for further research.     

Tax reform,capital allocation and welfare gains in Norway

Summary This paper analyzes the potential welfare gains to the Norwegian economy of implementing a tax reform that broadens the tax base and lowers tax rates on capital income. For this purpose a dynamic general equilibrium model where agents have perfect foresight is developed. The model is highly aggregate, with only one production sector and one household sector, but it incorporates a very detailed treatment of the taxation of capital income. This includes a two-way classification of capital assets into three ownership classes: corporate, non-corporate and household, and across two types of assets: long-lived and short-lived. This suffices to capture those elements of the Norwegian tax code that give rise to the most important distortions, both intratemporally and intertemporally.I have benefited greatly from detailed comments from Don Fullerton, A. Lans Bovenberg and an anonymous referee. Please direct all correspondence to the author to: Fiscal Affairs Department, International Monetary Fund, 700 19th Street, N.W., Washington, D.C. 20431.     

Reducing the Number of Pesticide- Related Illnesses: The Impact on Household Incomes in Indonesia

The increasing number of human health problems caused by the use of pesticides serves as a warning to countries to develop preventive programs Developing countries, however, are concerned about the effect of such programs on household incomes. With Indonesia as a case study, this paper presents a procedure to broaden a Social Accounting Matrix to include the impact of agricultural pesticide use on human health This approach utilises the Constrained Fixed Price Multiplier method to analyse the effect, on the household incomes of different socio-economic classes, of government programs that are designed to reduce human pesticide-related illnesses The results show that reducing such illnesses through the Safe Use of Pesticides program or the Integrated Pest Management program induces a more equal income distribution.     

The politics of Europe 2004: solidarity and integration

The process of European integration has reached the limits of European solidarity—both within the member states and between them. Increasingly, Europeans are demonstrating reluctance to accept common rules, to recognise common values, to protect common interests, or to promote common objectives. Instead, Europeans appear to be expressing many different and yet interrelated forms of disaffection. Voter abstention is high, security cooperation is weak, economic confidence is low, and support for either European enlargement or institutional reform is vanishing. To respond to this crisis, European politicians need to manage expectations better, they need to accept responsibility for public policy problems, they need to explain the limits of what Europe can do, and they need to search for new formulas to meet different national challenges with common European institutions.