CEO Overconfidence and Earnings Management: Evidence from Property-Liability Insurers' Loss Reserves

This study investigates the relation between managerial overconfidence and loss-reserving practices in the U.S. property-liability insurance industry. We find robust evidence that CEO overconfidence is significantly associated with relatively low loss reserves, resulting in relatively high reported earnings. This finding is consistent with the theoretical predication that overconfident managers overestimate the returns on their investment projects and underestimate losses. Our result contributes to the literature linking CEOs' personality traits and firms' accounting policy as well as to the literature on insurer loss-reserving practices.     

Understanding errors in EIA projections of energy demand

This paper investigates the potential for systematic errors in the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) widely used Annual Energy Outlook, focusing on the near- to mid-term projections of energy demand. Based on analysis of the EIA's 22-year projection record, we find a fairly modest but persistent tendency to underestimate total energy demand by an average of 2 percent per year after controlling for projection errors in gross domestic product, oil prices, and heating/cooling degree days. For 14 individual fuels/consuming sectors routinely reported by the EIA, we observe a great deal of directional consistency in the errors over time, ranging up to 7 percent per year. Electric utility renewables, electric utility natural gas, transportation distillate, and residential electricity show significant biases on average. Projections for certain other sectors have significant unexplained errors for selected time horizons. Such independent evaluation can be useful for validating analytic efforts and for prioritizing future model revisions.     

Economics at the FCC: 2007–2008

In any given year, the Federal Communications Commission confronts many issues of interest to economists. This paper summarizes four issues of interest during the last year: Spectrum Auctions, Media Ownership, Quality-Adjusted Cable Prices, and Leased Access. It highlights the role that economic analysis played in each and identifies areas where further research would be fruitful. This article was drafted while the first author was Chief Economist at the Federal Communications Commission. The opinions expressed here are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of the Federal Communications Commission, its Commissioners, or its staff. We would like to thank Larry White and Tracy Waldon for helpful comments.     

Strategic human capital management in the context of cross‐industry and within‐industry mobility frictions

Research Summary: We develop and test a theory examining how frictions that restrict mobility across industries and frictions constraining mobility within an industry can co‐occur to effectively isolate individual human capital, ultimately changing the firm's make‐versus‐buy decision for human capital. Empirically, we demonstrate that when cross‐industry frictions in the form of limited skill transferability and within‐industry frictions in the form of noncompete enforceability are both present, employees exhibit longer tenures, firms hire workers with less initial experience, firms change the amount and nature of training provided, and wages marginally increase. These findings suggest that sufficiently strong and complementary mobility frictions shift the emphasis of firms’ human capital management practices toward internal development of human capital relative to acquisition on the external market. Managerial Summary : In the face of frictions to employee mobility both within and across industries, which we capture empirically using measures of noncompete enforceability and limited skill transferability across industries, firms tend to hire less experienced workers, such workers exhibit longer tenures, and firms invest more in their training, particularly in the development of new skills. Our findings imply that for firms operating under such complementary frictions, better hiring and internal development capabilities are particularly important for performance, while those firms without such capabilities may benefit from considering ways to circumvent the mobility frictions, including moving out of the focal state or lobbying for different noncompete laws.     

Sales force reactions to corporate social responsibility: Attributions, outcomes, and the mediating role of organizational trust

Corporate social responsibility (CSR) is gaining momentum among researchers and practitioners. In spite of this extensive interest, systematic research regarding the effects of CSR on other stakeholder groups, besides consumers, remains sparse. Based on a field study in a global Fortune 500 consumer packaged goods company, we examine sales force attitudinal and behavioral outcomes of company's partnership with a United Nations (UN) philanthropic organization. Specifically, we seek to examine whether sales force perceptions of CSR motives influence their evaluation of CSR actions. Findings indicate that egoistic-driven motives negatively influence salesperson trust in the company, whereas stakeholder- and values-driven motives positively influence salesperson trust; however, strategic-driven attributions do not have an influence on salesperson trust. The results further reveal the mediating role of trust in the relationship between sales force attributions and outcomes including loyalty intentions and positive word-of-mouth.     

Diversification,coordination costs,and organizational rigidity: evidence from microdata

This paper examines the impact of coordination costs and organizational rigidity on the returns to diversification. The central thesis is that coordination costs offset economies of scope, while organizational rigidity increases coordination costs, further constraining economies of scope. The empirical tests of this proposition identify the effects of coordination and organizational rigidity costs on business unit and firm productivity, using novel data from the Economic Census on taxicab and limousine firms. The key results show that coordination and organizational rigidity costs are economically and statistically significant, while organizational rigidity itself accounts for a 16 percent decrease in paid ride‐miles per taxicab in incumbent diversifiers, controlling for the other costs and benefits of diversification and incumbency. The findings suggest that coordination costs, in general, and organizational rigidity costs, in particular, limit the scope of the firm. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The unintended harms of infrastructure: Opium and road construction in Afghanistan

This study provides evidence that infrastructure investment can encourage economic activity through illicit pathways. I examine this relationship in the context of Afghanistan, where I show that the construction of the country's largest modern infrastructure project, a 2,200 kilometer highway known as the A1 or Ring Road, led to significant increases in local opium cultivation over the past decade. Estimates from a two-way fixed effects model that exploits spatial and temporal variation in district-level poppy cultivation and proximity to the road suggest that the introduction of a highway to a district is associated with a 650 hectare increase in poppy cultivation in the subsequent year. This cultivation increases the longer a district has access to the road: Production in the second and third years rises by 750 and 900 hectares over pre-highway levels, respectively. Estimates also suggest that improved highway access leads Afghan farmers to substitute away from the production of legal crops towards opium, and that more farmers grow opium as their primary income-generating crop. These findings suggest that in nations where the rule of law is limited and opportunities for legal livelihoods remain scarce, investments in physical infrastructure can inadvertently incentivize illegal economic activity.