Implications for food production potential of future urban expansion in Ontario

The paper describes the application of an evaluation system to assess the flexibility that would exist in the use of Ontario's agricultural land resources under alternative urban growth scenarios. A programming method is employed, but the analysis does not yield a “best” or “predicted” allocation of land use; rather, the system gauges the degree to which options in the use of land are affected by changes in conditions, and identifies those land areas which are strategically important for particular uses given the specified conditions. The conditions are specified to reflect possible patterns of urban and exurban development, both with and without policy controls. The analysis provides evaluations of both the pressures on the land resources if food production requirements are to be met, and the importance of particular land units for agriculture if the requirements are to be met, under the alternative urban growth scenarios.