Learning, monetary policy rules, and macroeconomic stability

Several papers have documented a regime switch in US monetary policy from ‘passive’ and destabilizing in the pre-1979 period to ‘active’ and stabilizing afterwards. These studies typically work with DSGE models with rational expectations.This paper relaxes the assumption of rational expectations and allows for learning instead. Economic agents form expectations from simple models and update the parameters through constant-gain learning. In this setting, the paper aims to test whether monetary policy may have been a source of macroeconomic instability in the 1970s by inducing unstable learning dynamics.The model is estimated by Bayesian methods. The constant-gain coefficient is jointly estimated with the structural and policy parameters in the system.The results show that monetary policy was respecting the Taylor principle also in the pre-1979 period and, therefore, did not trigger macroeconomic instability.     

Does the Eco‐Management and Audit Scheme Foster Innovation in European Firms?

This paper studies whether environmental management systems can spur eco‐innovation, analyzing EMAS (Eco‐Management and Audit Scheme) adoption and patented innovations (at the European Patent Office) at firm level. It uses an original panel database of 30 439 European firms belonging to all sectors from 2003 to 2012. An original instrumental variable is implemented to control for potential endogeneity. The analysis reveals that EMAS adoption is conducive to more innovation at the firm level. The results vary across countries and sectors. In particular, EMAS is positively related to green patents for medium and low technology manufacturing. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd and ERP Environment     

Some reflections on past and future of nonlinear dynamics in economics and finance

This paper offers an overview of the literature on the economic and financial applications of theory of nonlinear dynamics, especially bifurcation theory. After a short introductory discussion of the first nonlinear dynamic models in social sciences and the economic relevance of the zoo of bifurcations and complicated dynamics that such models can generate, we present an overview of the literature on nonlinear dynamic models in the areas of underdevelopment, environmental poverty traps, the management of common goods, industrial organization and financial markets. The review of the literature is enriched by reflections and ideas for future research.     

Warning labels on junk food: experimental evidence

Unhealthy food choice is one of the main causes of being overweight. Nutritionists blame a particular category of food: junk food. Several authors have proposed a fat tax for reducing the junk food demand, but others have demonstrated that these taxes must be very high in order to be effective. Therefore, a warning label about calorie content may be an alternative way to reduce the consumption of junk food. In this exploratory study, using students as respondents, a high‐calorie warning label is explored with an incentive compatible valuation method. The results indicate that a high‐calorie warning label has little effect on respondents’ choices, even when they have no prior familiarity with the food.     

Technology,property rights and organizational diversity in the software industry

Why do open- and closed-source productions co-exist? To address this question, the paper studies the viability of distinct systems for software development. The model shows that: (a) for low design costs of modularity, both open- and closed-source productions are viable systems; (b) closed-source production is more likely to be adopted the greater the expected rents on software; and (c) production efficiency is not a necessary condition for the stochastic stability of a system to obtain. These three results can shed light on the emergence of organizational diversity in the software industry. The paper adds to the literature in three ways: first, it considers property rights and technology as endogenous variables in the process of system design; second it argues that in producing software multiple equilibrium designs may exist; and third, it shows that, in because of high rents and low design costs of modularity, production inefficiency can be persistent.     

The effects of technology shocks on hours and output: a robustness analysis

We analyze the effects of neutral and investment‐specific technology shocks on hours and output. Long cycles in hours are removed in a variety of ways. Hours robustly fall in response to neutral shocks and robustly increase in response to investment‐specific shocks. The percentage of the variance of hours (output) explained by neutral shocks is small (large); the opposite is true for investment‐specific shocks. ‘News shocks’ are uncorrelated with the estimated technology shocks. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Why Do Companies Go Public? An Empirical Analysis

Using a large database of private firms in Italy, we analyze the determinants of initial public offerings (IPOs) by comparing the ex ante and ex post characteristics of IPOs with those of private firms. The likelihood of an IPO is increasing in the company's size and the industry's market-to-book ratio. Companies appear to go public not to finance future investments and growth, but to rebalance their accounts after high investment and growth. IPOs are also followed by lower cost of credit and increased turnover in control.     

Debt Maturity: Is Long‐Term Debt Optimal?

We model and calibrate the arguments in favor and against short-term and long-term debt. These arguments broadly include: maturity premium , sustainability, and service smoothing. We use a dynamic-equilibrium model with tax distortions and government outlays uncertainty, and model maturity as the fraction of debt that needs to be rolled over every period. In the model, the benefits of defaulting are tempered by higher future interest rates. We then calibrate our artificial economy and solve for the optimal debt maturity for Brazil as an example of a developing country and the US as an example of a mature economy. We obtain that the calibrated costs from defaulting on long-term debt more than offset costs associated with short-term debt. Therefore, short-term debt implies higher welfare levels.     

When and how politicians take ‘scandalous’ decisions?

We study the decisions of a politician who maximizes his probability of being re-elected, which depends on the enactment of legislative instruments defined ‘scandalous’ because of their highly redistributive content. The agents are a politician and the voters; the legislative instruments available to the legislator are ordinary and executive laws, which differ according to their visibility. The theoretical model predicts that ‘scandalous’ legislation tends to be passed at the beginning of the legislature, while ‘non scandalous’, broader legislation, is approved mostly at the end of the legislation. Scandalous decisions, moreover, tend to be implemented by means of less visible executive legislation, while ordinary acts are mainly used to implement non scandalous decisions. This explanation of the genesis of legislation cycles is consistent with the findings of the empirical literature.     

The Heisenberg picture in the analysis of stock markets and in other sociological contexts

We review some recent results concerning some toy models of stock markets. Our models are suggested by the discrete nature of the number of shares and of the cash which are exchanged in a real market, and by the existence of conserved quantities, like the total number of shares or some linear combination of the cash and the shares. This suggests to use the same tools used in quantum mechanics and, in particular, the Heisenberg picture to describe the time behavior of the portfolio of each trader. We finally propose the use of this same framework in other sociological contexts.