Dimensions in the confluence of futures studies and action research

This article puts forward the proposition that the confluence of action research and futures studies can be seen across a number of domains: political, organisational, grassroots, global and individual. While this confluence embodies an heterogeneity of practices, it is their underlying approach, the processes used, which are shared. Identifying both the many distinctive practices in their unique contexts, and their more homogeneous processes is the primary task of this paper. Aspects of this confluence are explored as they relate to social change, empowerment, humanisation, ways of knowing and ethics.     

FISCAL ILLUSION AT THE LOCAL SPHERE: AN EMPIRICAL TEST OF THE FLYPAPER EFFECT USING SOUTH AFRICAN MUNICIPAL DATA1

While South Africa operates a relatively decentralised governance and administrative structure, an important feature of the country's intergovernmental fiscal relations system is the gap that exists between the expenditure responsibilities of sub‐national authorities and their assigned revenue bases. The resulting vertical fiscal imbalance is mainly addressed via significant intergovernmental transfers to provinces and local governments. This factor presents strong a priori grounds for assuming that in the South African context, the heavy dependence of many local governments on intergovernmental transfers may generate fiscal illusion. Despite this, there have not been many empirical studies of fiscal illusion in South Africa's intergovernmental transfer system. This paper extends existing literature on fiscal illusion by using the fiscal year 2005/06 financial and expenditure data from 237 local government authorities in South Africa to evaluate the flypaper variant of the fiscal illusion hypothesis. Empirical results indicate that the marginal effects of municipal own‐source revenues on local expenditure exceed those of intergovernmental transfers. No statistical evidence in support of the flypaper hypothesis within the context of municipal expenditures in South Africa is found.     

Fiscal sustainability across government tiers

This paper analyses how fiscal adjustment comes about when both central and sub-national governments are involved in consolidation. We test sustainability of public debt with a fiscal rule for both federal and regional government. Results for the German Länder show that lower tier governments bear a relatively smaller part of the burden of debt consolidation, if they consolidate at all. Most of the fiscal adjustment occurs via central government debt. In contrast, both the US federal and state levels contribute to consolidation of public finances.     

Situational analysis beyond 'single-exit' modelling

Situational analysis (SA) is currently the method of mainstreammicroeconomics, and this paper maintains that it may also performan important role in heterodox research programmes in economics.Its most elaborate version in economics, the ‘single-exit’modelling approach, is an epistemologically driven endeavourwhich does not take full account of the way our world works.In this paper, it is argued that a fully consistent SA thatis firmly grounded on sound human ontological foundations canbe pursued if it is detached from the Rationality Principle,if closed-system modelling is abandoned, and if a retroductivemode of inference is embraced.     

Geographic versus industry diversification: Constraints matter

This research addresses whether geographic diversification provides benefits over industry diversification in the Eurozone. Our contribution is to show that in the absence of constraints, no empirical evidence is found to support the argument that geographic diversification dominates industry diversification, except in the euro subperiod. With short-selling constraints, however, the tangency portfolio of geographic diversification is not attainable by industry diversification. In out-of-sample geographic minimum variance portfolios outperform industry portfolios in economic terms, although we cannot establish statistical significance.     

The aftermath of the subprime crisis: a clustering analysis of world banking sector

The banking sector has been on the spotlight in both academic and policy circles since the outburst of the subprime bubble. The crisis has its roots in the US, but there were spillover effects around the world. We study the behavior of the banking sector of 40 countries during the period 2007–2010, using a new clustering methodology. Our methodology combines regime switching models in the modeling of longitudinal variations with cluster analysis that identifies groups of countries with similar profiles. Our results show that although there were periods of intense contagion, the impact was uneven among sample countries. The crisis had episodic effects on some countries, while others had severe devaluations after the Lehman Brothers bankruptcy. Finally, a small group of banking systems has plunged into a long severe crisis.     

Strategic Alignment,Performance, and Value

ABSTRACT

The paper discusses the reaching of superior value based on strategic alignment and the adoption of performance measurement systematics, which are based on multiple and integrated perspectives, using primary data obtained through the survey of companies of high complexity and impact in the Brazilian economy. The operationalization was developed from the adoption of multivariate analysis, which revealed the existence of correlations between the variables studied, reinforcing assumptions about reaching superior value based on the improvement of the mechanisms that support the strategic management dimensions with the backdrop of performance management practices based on the principles of Kaplan and Norton (2001 Kaplan , R. S. , and Norton , D. P. (2001). Organização Orientada para a Estratégia . Rio de Janeiro : Campus. [Google Scholar]) for organizations focused on strategy and the Balanced Scorecard approach. The findings confirm the importance of the association among strategic alignment vectors to reach a superior value and the existence of different clusters of organizations dedicated to reach and support value, mainly through combining the organization's relational capabilities (Soft Skills). The study deepens the discussion on strategic alignment of organizations through the introduction and testing of the Institutional Steering, Performance Maturity, and Balanced Performance constructs.     

Decomposing income inequality in a backward pre‐industrial economy: Old Castile (Spain) in the middle of the eighteenth century

Research on economic inequality in early modern Europe is complicated by the lack of appropriate data for reconstructing income or wealth distributions. This article presents a study of income inequality in mid‐eighteenth‐century Old Castile (Spain) using the Ensenada Cadastre, a census conducted between 1749 and 1759. The article describes the information provided by this census and then discusses its advantages and disadvantages for reconstructing income profiles and calculating income inequality. This is followed by analysis of a dataset derived from the Cadastre that consists of more than 4,000 observations from Palencia (a province in northern Spain) and contains information on sources of household income, each household head's main occupation, residence location, and other household characteristics. Demographic data from this census is used to weight observations in the sample and thereby minimize selection bias. Findings show that inequality in eighteenth‐century Spain was probably substantial despite its relative backwardness; that the relationship between inequality and per capita income was not clear‐cut and was probably influenced by measurement of the higher incomes; and that although income inequality was largely driven by uneven land distribution, labour income also contributed to overall inequality—especially in urban centres.     

R&D investment dynamics in agglomerations under weak appropriability regimes: Evidence from Indian R&D labs

What are the dynamics of R&D investment when firms agglomerate in environments with weak intellectual property rights protection? Specifically, do foreign and domestic firms present equal opportunities for free riding by domestic firms in such environments? We examine the impact on local firms' R&D investment from knowledge spillovers originating from co‐located foreign and domestic firms within and across industries. Building on fieldwork in India, we predict free riding by local firms on nearby foreign and local firms. Furthermore, we expect local firms to free ride more from other local firms within their industry and from foreign firms across industries. Analyzing a sample of 3,475 R&D lab investment decisions during 2003–2010 in India, we find that local firms free ride from other local firms both within and across industries. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.