Beyond Patrimonial Plunder: The Use and Abuse of Coconut Levies in the Philippines

This article re-examines a case of corruption that was perpetuated during a period of authoritarian rule in the Philippines: the subversion of ‘coconut levies’, a tax on coconut production imposed by strongman President Ferdinand Marcos from 1971 to 1982. Literature on the case has formed the basis for locating the political origins of the country’s struggles with long-run economic transformation in terms of the extent of ‘rent-seeking’ and articulations of ‘neo-patrimonialism’ in this middle-income developing economy. The article interrogates how extant analyses of the case have explained associated malign developmental outcomes with reference to institutional design and governance conditions. It forwards a re-interpretation that focuses on the distributional contest underpinning levy mobilisation, including the types of state-engineered privileges contested, and how access to these were politically determined and regulated during and after the Marcos period. This approach, in which developmental possibilities of rent-creating state interventions are not universally denied but considered with reference to configurations of power and structures of political bargaining, will be shown to address limitations of preponderant analyses and bear relevance to developing countries where, because of structural reasons, neo-patrimonialism may be endemic but rent-creating state interventions cannot be discounted as instruments for promoting economic development.     

Forecasting Surrender Rates Using Elliptical Copulas and Financial Variables

A multistage stochastic model to forecast surrender rates for life insurance and pension plans is proposed. Surrender rates are forecasted by means of Monte Carlo simulation after a sequence of GLM, ARMA-GARCH, and copula fitting is executed. The model is illustrated by applying it to age-specific time series of surrender rates derived from pension plans with annuity payments of a Brazilian insurer. In the GLM process, the only macroeconomic variable used as an explanatory variable is the Brazilian real short-term interest rate. The advantage of such a variable is that we can take future market expectation through the current term structure of interest rates. The GLM residuals of each age/gender group are then modeled by ARMA-GARCH processes to generate i.i.d. residuals. The dependence among these residuals is then modeled by multivariate Gaussian and Student's t copulas. To produce a conditional forecast on a stock market index, in our application we used the residuals of an ARMA-GARCH model fitted to the Brazilian stock market index (Ibovespa) returns, which generates one of the marginal distributions used in the dependence modeling through copulas. This strategy is adopted to explain the high and uncommon surrender rates observed during the recent economic crisis. After applying known simulation methods for elliptical copulas, we proceeded backwards to obtain the forecasted distributions of surrender rates by application, in the sequel, of ARMA-GARCH and GLM models. Additionally, our approach produced an algorithm able to simulate multivariate elliptical copulas conditioned on a marginal distribution. Using this algorithm, surrender rates can be simulated conditioned on stock index residuals (in our case, the residuals of the Ibovespa returns), which allows insurers and pension funds to simulate future surrender rates assuming a financial stress scenario with no need to predict the stock market index.     

Does tourism influence economic growth? A dynamic panel data approach

On average, tourism-specialized countries grow more than others. This is not consistent with the core of modern economic growth theory that suggests that economic growth is linked to sectors with high-tech intensity and large scale. In this article, we use appropriate panel data methods to study the relationship between tourism and economic growth. In general, we show that tourism is a positive determinant of economic growth both in a broad sample of countries and in a sample of poor countries. However, contrary to previous contributions, tourism is not more relevant in small countries than in a general sample.     

Equality of Opportunity in Four Measures of Well‐Being

A growing literature has tried to measure the extent to which individuals have equal opportunities to acquire income. At the same time, policymakers have doubled down on efforts to go beyond income when designing policies to enhance well‐being. We attempt to bridge these two areas by measuring the extent to which individuals have equal opportunities to achieve a high level of well‐being. We use the German Socio‐Economic Panel to measure well‐being in four different ways, including incomes. This makes it possible to determine if the way in which well‐being is measured matters for identifying who the opportunity‐deprived are and for tracking inequality of opportunity over time. We find that, regardless of how well‐being is measured, the same people are opportunity‐deprived and equality of opportunity has improved over the past 10 years. This suggests that going beyond income has little relevance if the objective is to provide equal opportunities.     

Brazil’s economic reform roads

Business Economics - In 2015–2016, Brazil endured the deepest recession in its history. GDP fell by 7.3% in 2 years. Unlike recent crises in other emerging markets, characterized by a balance...     

Writing Across Contexts: Urban Informality and the State in Tallinn,Bafatá and Berlin

Urban research has long related informality to a lack of state capacity or a failure of institutions. This assumption not only fails to account for the heterogeneous institutional relations in which informality is embedded, but has also created a dividing line between states. Whereas some states are understood to manage urban development through functioning institutions, others, in this view, fail to regulate. To deconstruct such understandings, this article explores informal practices through a multi‐sited individualizing comparison between three case studies of water governance, parking regulation and dwelling regimes in Bafatá (Guinea‐Bissau), Tallinn (Estonia) and Berlin (Germany), respectively. Our approach to understanding informality starts from the negotiation and contestation of order between differently positioned actors in the continuous making of states. From this point of view, informality is inherent in the architecture of states––emerging through legal systems, embedded in negotiations between and within institutions, and based on conflicts between state regulations and prevailing norms. Tracing how order takes shape though negotiation, improvisation, co‐production and translation not only highlights how informality constitutes a modus operandi in the everyday workings of the state in all three cases, but also provides a way to talk across these cases, i.e. to bring them together in one frame of analysis and overcome their presumed incommensurability.     

Can trade liberalisation in South Africa reduce poverty and inequality while boosting economic growth? Macro–micro reflections

South Africa is trapped in a cycle of modest growth, unacceptable poverty levels and record unemployment. This has led to renewed interest on the relationship between macro (growth) and micro (poverty and distribution) issues. This paper uses a macro–micro tool that couples a computable general equilibrium model with microsimulation models to examine the impact of further unilateral trade policy reforms on growth, poverty and welfare. Trade liberalisation alone has very minimal short-run macroeconomic consequences while its long-term impacts are positive and magnified by technical factor productivity (TFP) effects. Trade liberalisation has no appreciable impact on poverty in the short run even if we allow for trade-induced TFP increases. In the long run, however, poverty reduces even in the case when we do not allow for TFP increases. Trade liberalisation policy has been found to be progressive despite the low level of tariff protection remaining in South Africa.     

On the effect of R&D in returns to experience

Using a recent macroeconomic database, we empirically estimate an ‘erosion effect’: we show that Total Factor Productivity (TFP) growth decreases returns to experience. The ‘erosion effect’ is typically stronger within the rich and the most experienced countries in the world. This article complements the scarce microeconomic literature on the issue and the theoretical macroeconomic literature recently coming to the conclusion that this effect has important implications for the interaction between human capital accumulation and TFP.