Macroeconomic Drivers of Loan Quality in Turkey

We analyze the drivers of nonperforming loans in the Turkish banking system after the 2000–01 Turkish banking crisis. By constructing a vector autoregression model, we perform dynamic out-of-sample forecasts, which yield quite accurate results compared to the actual data. Since forecasting is a very crucial tool for both policy makers and market players, these results are some of the main strengths and contributions of this study. This article shows various patterns between the economic and financial indicators and the nonperforming loans. One important message obtained from the results is that policy makers should be concerned about the status of the economy and the market expectations to maintain stability in the banking system.     

Have “Millennials” Embraced Digital Advertising as They Have Embraced Digital Media?

Consumers’ attitudes toward advertising ethics are of interest to marketers who understand that negative attitudes can be harmful to brands. Today advertisers increasingly depend on internet advertising. This study compares attitudes of Millennials (the first generation to use digital media more than traditional media) toward internet advertising with attitudes toward advertising in traditional media. Similar to previous generations who had more negative attitudes toward TV advertising, which was their most frequently used medium, Millennials’ attitudes appeared to be more negative toward internet advertising. Thus, we conclude that advertisers must work to engender positive relationships with Millennials through more ethical internet advertising and other innovative strategies.     

Is the US Dollar a Suitable Anchor for the Newly Proposed GCC Currency?

Responses of inflation and non‐oil output growth from the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries to monetary policy shocks from the United States (US) were estimated to determine whether there is evidence to support the US dollar as the anchor for the proposed unified currency. A structural vector autoregression identified with short‐run restrictions was employed for each country with Fed funds rate as the US monetary policy instrument, non‐oil output growth and inflation. The main results suggest that for inflation, the GCC countries show synchronised responses to monetary policy shocks from the US which are similar to inflation in the US, and for non‐oil output growth, there is no clear indication that US monetary policy can be as effective for the GCC countries as it is domestically. Consequently, importing US monetary policy via a dollar peg may guarantee only stable inflation for the GCC countries – not necessarily stable non‐oil output growth. If the non‐oil output response is made conscientiously – and there are concerns over the dollar’s ability to perform its role as a store of value – a basket peg with both the US dollar and the euro may be a sound alternative as confirmed by the variance decomposition analysis of our augmented SVAR with a proxy for the European short‐term interest rate.     

On the feasibility of monetary union among Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries: does the symmetry of shocks extend to the non-oil sector?

GCC countries’ output is heavily dichotomized into oil and non-oil. Oil shocks have similar effects on all member countries but little is known about their responses to non-oil shocks. This paper sets out to determine (1) whether aggregate demand (AD) and non-oil supply shocks (AS) are symmetrical across these countries to justify their suitability for monetary union; and (2) whether there is any commonality of shocks with the United States and the three major European countries, namely France, Germany, and Italy, which can warrant the choice of either the US dollar or the Euro as the anchor for the expected common currency of the bloc. We use bivariate structural vector autoregression models identified with long-run restrictions to extract the shocks. Our results show that (a) AD shocks are unequivocally symmetrical but non-oil AS shocks are weakly symmetrical across GCC countries thereby suggesting a monetary union is feasible, but not overwhelmingly; (b) neither AD nor AS shocks are symmetrical between GCC countries and the selected European countries; (c) GCC’s AD shocks are symmetrical with the US but non-oil AS shock are not. Furthermore, there are no significant changes in the results when we aggregate the GCC countries as a bloc. We therefore surmise that the US dollar is a more appropriate anchor for the new currency than the Euro since US monetary policy can at least help smooth demand shocks in GCC countries.     

Environmental soundness: a pragmatic alternative to expectations of sustainable development in business strategy

In recent years, many companies have responded publicly to pressure to improve their environmental performance. The paradigm within which these responses have been made, however, appears to be confused. This paper proposes the role that companies are best able to play in the societal progression towards sustainable development. We argue that the concept of sustainable development may only be properly applied at the global level; it follows that a ‘sustainably developed’ company or industry sector is not a practical objective. Nevertheless, the contribution which business can make within a sustainable development framework is recognized as being of the highest importance. We suggest that the nature of this contribution pivots around a distinction between environmental soundness (which concerns the interaction between the environment and economics) and sustainability (which adds a broad social element to the environmental and economic, and requires the consideration of time horizons). It is proposed that companies are well positioned to pursue effective environmentally sound corporate strategies. It is also argued that such strategies offer great potential to advance social justice, as environmental improvements are often disproportionately beneficial to poorer groups in society. In contrast, arguments are presented against companies attempting to move beyond environmental soundness to address those broad social elements demanded by sustainable development. A broad allocation of those responsibilities inherent in sustainable development to societal institutions is presented, placing the suggested role of business into context. In advocating the adoption of corporate strategies based on environmental soundness we do not seek to derogate the concept of sustainable development; we do aim to stem the apparent continuing erosion of its fundamental tenets and to identify responsibilities that are appropriate to business. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd and ERP Environment.     

The relationship between tourism,CO2 emissions and economic growth: a case of Mediterranean countries

This study explores the impact of tourism on economic growth considering CO₂ emissions utilizing panel data techniques for a sample of Mediterranean countries. The cointegration tests reveal that there is a positive long-run equilibrium between tourism, CO₂ emissions and economic growth. This positive long-run relationship may suggest that tourism increases the level of CO₂ emissions and has a statistically significant impact on economic growth in Mediterranean countries. Emirmahmutoglu and Kose (2011. Testing for Granger causality in heterogeneous mixed panels. Economic Modelling, 28(3), 870–876.) test results reveal that the tourism-led growth hypothesis, which suggests that tourism contributes to economic growth, is valid for Egypt, Italy, and Spain. Additionally, there exists a bidirectional relationship between tourism and economic growth both in Morocco and Turkey.     

Regulate one service,tame the entire market: Credit cards in Turkey

In credit card markets banks provide both payment and credit services. Two regulations were recently enacted in the Turkish credit card market: one on payment services in 2005 and the other on credit services in 2006. By employing the well-known  and  method and a unique quarterly data set for 21 Turkish banks between 2002 and 2008, we investigate the extent of banks’ market power in the Turkish credit card market before and after the regulations. Unlike most of the existing literature, which considers competition and regulation for either credit or payment services and ignores the externalities between them, we consider the entire market by taking both services into account. Fixed effects estimations reveal that banks enjoyed collusive oligopoly power before the regulations. Although the first regulation did not have much impact, the second led to rises in both banks’ total revenues and competition in the entire market.     

Asymmetry of information flow between volatilities across time scales

Conventional time series analysis, focusing exclusively on a time series at a given scale, lacks the ability to explain the nature of the data-generating process. A process equation that successfully explains daily price changes, for example, is unable to characterize the nature of hourly price changes. On the other hand, statistical properties of monthly price changes are often not fully covered by a model based on daily price changes. In this paper, we simultaneously model regimes of volatilities at multiple time scales through wavelet-domain hidden Markov models. We establish an important stylized property of volatility across different time scales. We call this property asymmetric vertical dependence. It is asymmetric in the sense that a low volatility state (regime) at a long time horizon is most likely followed by low volatility states at shorter time horizons. On the other hand, a high volatility state at long time horizons does not necessarily imply a high volatility state at shorter time horizons. Our analysis provides evidence that volatility is a mixture of high and low volatility regimes, resulting in a distribution that is non-Gaussian. This result has important implications regarding the scaling behavior of volatility, and, consequently, the calculation of risk at different time scales.     

Financial Liberalization as a Process of Flawed Institutional Change

I argue that the financial liberalization of the last decades, which resulted in a worldwide crisis, relied on an institutional change that ill-shaped actors’ behavior so as to let them enter into unsustainable speculative activities at the expense of macro-stability. To support such an assertion, I draw upon a specific Veblen-Minsky approach to a credit-money economy and its endogenous fragilities. I also maintain that, when financial markets are liberalized and private-interestsrelated self-regulation replaces public macro-prudential supervision, the financial system undergoes institutional deadlock and the ensuing confusion is transformed into a market gridlock. Markets then become unable to recover without public rescue operations of banks. The subsequent negative economic and social consequences are beyond the limits of any acceptable liberal ideology and scientific understanding. Therefore, systemic stability calls for a tighter macro-regulatory framework to remove the domination of speculative finance over economic decisions and activities.