International market links and volatility transmission

This paper gauges volatility transmission between stock markets by testing conditional independence of their volatility measures. In particular, we check whether the conditional density of the volatility changes if we further condition on the volatility of another market. We employ nonparametric methods to estimate the conditional densities and model-free realized measures of volatility, allowing for both microstructure noise and jumps. We establish the asymptotic normality of the test statistic as well as the first-order validity of the bootstrap analog. Finally, we uncover significant volatility spillovers between the stock markets in China, Japan, UK and US.     

Does local and Euro area sentiment matter for sovereign debt markets? Evidence from a bailout country

Does sentiment impact the sovereign debt markets? This article investigates whether lagged domestic and Euro area irrational sentiment (optimism or pessimism unwarranted by fundamentals) predicts future sovereign bond spreads, in Portugal, between January 2000 and December 2013. We find that domestic and Euro area sentiment negatively forecasts total return spreads and that this effect is stronger during the bailout period. Also, we find that the business sentiment is even most noticed. Therefore, Portuguese sovereign debt market is prone to the influence of investors’ sentiment.     

Disaggregating input–output tables in time: the temporal input–output framework

The input–output framework has evolved dramatically since its initial formulation. New analytical techniques and extensions have allowed a more comprehensive assessment of the economy and expanded its applicability. Nonetheless, the core of the framework has remained unchanged: an annually compiled input–output table, which conveys monetary flows between sectors in a region in a particular year. Hence, the technical coefficients derived from it are ‘average’ input compositions, neglecting fluctuations in production capacity, seasonality and temporal shocks within that period. This paper develops a consistent methodology to disaggregate the annual input–output table in its time dimension in order to estimate intra-year input–output matrices with distinct technical structures for a particular year. The main advantages in relation to the annual model are to allow seasonal effects to be studied within the input–output framework, to better understand the process of coefficient change and to offer a more comprehensive dynamic view of production.     

Drivers to firm innovation and their effects on performance: an international comparison

This research aims to analyse the drivers to company innovation and their effects on the financial performance. This study is based upon a sample of companies, located in two neighbouring countries (Portugal and Spain). Linear regression was the methodology deployed to analyse the importance of innovation types (differences between Portugal and Spain). To analyse the extent to which the innovation capacity variables influence financial performance (turnover), we made recourse to Probit Regression models. Our results show significant differences in terms of both the drivers and inhibitors to innovation in these two countries. The introduction of products into new markets only proved significant at Spanish companies whilst innovations in both products and processes are significant in both sets of Iberian companies.     

Diffusion of multi-generational high-technology products

Previous multi-generational product diffusion (MGPD) models were developed based on the diffusion patterns at that time, but may not be adopted in today's cases. By incorporating the effect of customers' forward-looking behaviour, this paper offers a parsimonious and original model that captures the dynamics of MGPD in current high-technology markets. We empirically examine the feasibility of using previous MGPD models and our suggested model to explain the market growth of new products from high-technology industries. The results show that the new model exhibits better curve fitting and forecasting performance than the prior MGPD models in the cases of this study. For marketing researchers, our model and its results suggest customers' forward looking behaviour is perhaps one of the key sales affecting factors that are missing in previous MGPD models in explaining nowadays' cases. For marketing practitioners, this study offers a valuable tool for marketing strategies in high-tech industries.     

Trends and Paths From Border Regions＂ The Frontier Centro-Castilla y Leon of Portugal and Spain

The objective of this paper is to determine whether the process of European Union （EU） integration has unleashed a new territorial dynamic with the convergence of border regions. Authors intend to analyze trends and trajectories of the Portuguese--Spanish border regions of the Center of Portugal and Castilla y Leon, particularly the municipalities of NUTS Ill and northern and southern Beira Interior （Central Region） and the provinces of the municipalities of Salamanca and Zamora （Region of Castilla y Leon）, in the last 20 years, given a set of demographic, economic, and social indicators, by using statistical analysis combined with contributions from the development processes established in these regions.