Access pricing and investment: a real options approach

This paper examines a three-period model of an investment decision in a network industry characterized by demand uncertainty, economies of scale and sunk costs. In the absence of regulation we identify the market conditions under which a monopolist decides to invest early as well as the overall welfare generated by this decision. In a regulated environment, we consider a vertically integrated network provider that is required to provide access to downstream competitors and compare two distinct access pricing methodologies: the Efficient Component Pricing Rule (ECPR) and the Option to Delay Pricing Rule (ODPR). We identify the welfare-maximizing access prices using the unregulated market output as a benchmark and show that optimal access regulation depends on market conditions (that is, the nature of demand) with two possible outcomes: (i) access prices that provide a positive payoff to the incumbent, that is, provide a positive compensation to account for the option to delay; and (ii) access prices that yield a zero payoff to the incumbent. Moreover, unlike the earlier literature that argues in favor of an ECPR-type methodology to account for the interaction between irreversibility and demand uncertainty, we find that, except under very specific conditions, an access price that accounts for the option to delay value is welfare-superior to the ECPR.      

Top-<Emphasis Type="Italic">k</Emphasis>-lists

Top-k-lists are introduced as sequences of k-dimensional random vectors with ordered components being k largest observations from a sequence of independent identically distributed random variables. Such lists changing in time are natural stochastic models of ranking tables which appear in many situations in real life, when one wants to keep a track of several best results in a given field. Here we study basic properties of top-k-lists as joint distributions, conditional structures, representations, driving examples of top-k-lists from exponential and uniform distributions, asymptotics and a relation to generalized order statistics.     

Exporting and performance: evidence from Chilean plants

Abstract.  Recent empirical evidence documents the superior characteristics of exporters relative to non‐exporters. Three explanations for this phenomenon have been proposed: self‐selection; learning‐by‐exporting; and conscious self‐selection. We test these three hypotheses using plant‐level data from Chile. We find that plants that enter international markets show superior initial performance compared with non‐exporters, consistent with self‐selection; we observe increases in productivity after plants begin to export, which is consistent with learning‐by‐exporting. We also find strong evidence supporting the idea that self‐selection is a conscious process by which plants increase productivity with the purpose of becoming exporters. JEL classification: F14; O54; D21     

Demand uncertainty and the value of supply opportunities

The study considers the optimal timing of production decisions under demand uncertainty. In accordance with the modern theory of irreversible investment, the problem is modelled as one of optimal stopping. By taking an approach which is independent of dynamic programming and the smooth-fit principle, we derive explicitly both the value of the opportunity and the optimal-demand threshold. We prove that the optimal-demand threshold can be attained at a point where the smooth-fit principle is not valid. We also carry out the comparative static analysis of the optimal variables and derive conditions under which production incentives are held constant. A consequence of this analysis is that along the iso-incentive curve inflationary policy must be counteracted with strict monetary policy.     

Volatility in asset prices and long-run wealth effect estimates

We argue that the equation commonly used in the estimation of the wealth effect on consumption might be unsuitable for that purpose. In particular, if the usual assumptions are employed, the derivation of the equation implies that the wealth effect is indeterminate. Furthermore, it implies that the estimate of the wealth effect should decrease when asset wealth volatility increases. Estimation of a Markov-switching model of the usual long-run aggregate consumption equation provides evidence favourable to the indeterminacy hypothesis.     

The Strategic Social Map of a Nongovernmental Organization

Currently, the traditional states-nation, as far as their social commitments are concerned, are giving way to the nongovernmental organizations (NGO). These organizations have a mission, strategy, and goals different from those organizations looking simply for profits. Nevertheless, NGOs are concerned about using management and information systems at least as good as those used by private companies. Organizations try to develop a social strategy taking their social responsibility as starting point. In this paper, the authors describe how to fix the organization mission, its strategy and goals, and also how to make its action map. A strategy proposal will be described, as well as the way on how to put it into practice. The main goals of this paper is to describe the mission, strategy, and goals of the organization; design its strategic social map; fix the limits of the organization's action; apply the theoretical model to a NGO; and design an information model in order to manage the strategic development. The authors would like to express their gratitude to M. Dolors Celma Benaiges, lecturer at the Escola Universitària del Maresme, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, for her assistance reviewing and translating the paper.     

Optimal risk-sharing with effort and project choice

We consider first-best risk-sharing problems in which “the agent” can control both the drift (effort choice) and the volatility of the underlying process (project selection). In a model of delegated portfolio management, it is optimal to compensate the manager with an option-type payoff, where the functional form of the option is obtained as a solution to an ordinary differential equation. In the general case, the optimal contract is a fixed point of a functional that connects the agent's and the principal's maximization problems. We apply martingale/duality methods familiar from optimal consumption-investment problems.     

Copula‐Based Formulas to Estimate Unexpected Credit Losses (The Future of Basel Accords?)

The model used to estimate the capital required to cover unexpected credit losses in financial institutions (Basel II) has some drawbacks that reduce its ability to capture potential joint extreme losses in downturns. This paper suggests an alternative approach based on Copula Theory to overcome such flaws. Similarly to Basel II, the suggested model assumes that defaults are driven by a latent variable which varies as a response to an unobserved factor. On the other hand, the use of copulas allows the identification of asymmetric dependence between defaults which has been registered in the literature. As an example, a specific copula family (Clayton) is adopted to represent the association between the latent variables and a formula to estimate potential unexpected losses at a certain level of confidence is derived. Simulations reveal that, in most of the cases, the alternative model outperforms Basel II for portfolios with right‐tail‐dependent probabilities of default (supposedly, a good representation for real loan portfolios).