An estimation of the pattern of diffusion of mobile phones: The case of Colombia

This paper examines the diffusion pattern of mobile telephony in Colombia. The empirical modelling approach adopted in the paper starts off by choosing between the two functional forms that are most frequently used in the literature, namely the Gompertz and the Logistic models. After applying a formal statistical test to choose the preferred functional form, the evidence suggests that the pattern of diffusion can be best characterised as following a Logistic model. The findings also suggest that despite the fact that in recent years the rate of growth of mobile phone subscribers has started to slow down, there still appears to be room for further expansion as the saturation level is expected to be reached in 2013. The estimated saturation level is consistent with some individuals possessing more than one mobile device.     

Explaining Differences in Milk Quota Values: The Role of Economic Efficiency

This article explores the relationship between milk quota values and economic efficiency in order to analyze government interventions in quota allocations among producers. For this purpose, we estimate quota values using a panel of Spanish dairy farms. Quota values are then decomposed into economic efficiency, price, and scale effects in order to assess the relative influence of these factors. We find that efficiency is important in explaining quota values but is uncorrelated with observable farm characteristics. This casts doubts on the government's ability to allocate quotas to efficient farms.     

Using the economics of platforms to understand the broadband-based market formation in the New Zealand Ultra-Fast Broadband Network

The government of New Zealand is currently building a nation-wide fibre-optics network, a project known as the Ultra-Fast Broadband (UFB) initiative. The UFB network will cover 75 percent of New Zealanders over 10 years and will cost NZD $1.5 billion to the New Zealand government. The technical and economic characteristics of the new network will have a deep impact on the current landscape of the telecommunications markets. Institutional arrangements are in place for the development of the New Zealand's UFB: a government-owned agency, Crown Fibre Holdings (CFH); private investors who jointly with CFH own the Local Fibre Companies (LFCs) which will operate the UFB; and Retail Service Providers (RSP) that will provide end-user services by purchasing wholesale services to the LFCs. Relying on a normative economics approach that uses recent advances in the theory of platform-based markets with cross-network effects – also known as theory of two-sided platforms – the paper proposes a novel view of the way markets over the UFB will unfold. On one hand, the theory is used to explain the rationale behind regulatory decisions already made and their effect on the development of UFB-based markets for contents and services. Such analysis is followed, on the other hand, by the introduction of a simple taxonomy for the RSPs which provides the framework to argue about the most likely scenarios for service deployment and competition to develop over the UFB. The analytical framework reveals that the UFB ecosystem will be fraught with cross-network externalities which are the basis for regulatory decisions already adopted and the source of particular forms of strategic behavior adopted by the UFB-based market innovators.     

Limits to Arbitrage and Value Investing: Evidence From Brazil

ABSTRACT

In this article we show that the results obtained by accounting-based fundamental analysis strategies observed in the US market cannot be directly extended to emerging markets with less developed institutional environments and narrow equity markets as found in Latin America. We use Brazil as a special case and through standard tests show the apparent usefulness of financial statement analysis as an effective investment tool. We show that an investor could have changed his/her high book-to-market (HBM) portfolio one-year (two years) market-adjusted returns from 5.7% (42.4%) to 26.7% (120.2%) by selecting financially strong HBM firms listed on the São Paulo Stock Exchange. Our tests were performed using stock returns from 1995 to 2007 and financial and accounting data from 1994 to 2004. When one considers low book-to-market (LBM) firms, the results of the study indicate that an investor could change his/her mean (median) one-year market adjusted return from ?11.9% (?7.4%) to 8.1% (2.5%) by adopting the strategy proposed. However, additional investigation demonstrates that the returns generated by these strategies are significantly dependent on stock's liquidity, and when we consider only stocks where arbitrage is possible, the previous results do not hold. These findings contribute to the literature that tries to address the impact of limits to arbitrage on some well reported capital markets phenomena related to financial reporting.     

Banks’ Net Interest Margin in the 2000s: A Macro-Accounting international perspective

This paper re-examines the determinants of Net Interest Margin (NIM) in the banking industries of 15 developed and emerging economies. It presents three main contributions with respect to previous studies: first, we analyze the determinants of NIM in the years leading to the 2008 financial crisis; second, we account for the role of different accounting standards across countries; third, we use multi-way cluster estimation methodologies which control for cross-sectional and time-series dependence in macroeconomic and banking variables. We find that the introduction of International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRSs) contributed to lower NIM variations unexplained by standard accounting variables. Interest rate volatility is found to be positively and strongly related to NIM dynamics, whereas inflation risk is often found to be a relevant driver of NIM cross-country differences.     

Reopening the convergence debate: A new look at cross-country growth empirics

There are two sources of inconsistency in existing cross-country empirical work on growth: correlated individual effects and endogenous explanatory variables. We estimate a variety of cross-country growth regressions using a generalized method of moments estimator that eliminates both problems. In one application, we find that per capita incomes converge to their steady-state levels at a rate of approximately 10 percent per year. This result stands in sharp contrast to the current consensus, which places the convergence rate at 2 percent. We discuss the theoretical implications of this finding. In another application, we perform a test of the Solow model. Again, contrary to prior reults, we reject both the standard and the augmented version of the model.     

Entry and Exit in International Markets: Evidence from Chilean Data*

Several studies examine the patterns and determinants of entry and exit in manufacturing industries. Not much work exists on entry and exit in international markets. This paper uses Chilean data to analyze the industry‐level determinants of entry and exit in export markets. First, we show as stylized facts that entry and exit rates differ across industries, vary over time, and are positively correlated. Then, we study the main determinants of these patterns. Our econometric analysis shows that within‐industry heterogeneity, measured by differences in productivity or other firm characteristics, has a significant effect on plant turnover in international markets. Our findings reveal that trade costs, factor intensities, and fluctuations in the real exchange rate play a minor role explaining entry and exit. This last result is consistent with hysteresis in international markets.     

TESTING THE INDUCED INNOVATION HYPOTHESIS USING COINTEGRATION ANALYSIS

This paper deals with some of the problems involved in testing the hypothesis that factor price movements tend to influence the type of technological innovations which are developed and adopted, known as the Induced Innovation Hypothesis. Previous methods to perform this test are briefly reviewed and their limitations are discussed. A testing procedure which is based on the use of cointegration analysis is proposed and its advantages outlined. Finally, one application of the method is made, providing little support for the Induced Innovation Hypothesis in the case of US Agriculture (1948–83).     

Common value auctions with independent types

In this paper I consider a common value model, with independent types, where the ex-post value of the good is influenced by the bidders' information at the auction stage. The seller cannot fully extract the surplus. In a symmetric model the optimal mechanism can be implemented through first price, second price, or English auctions; but not through a Dutch auction. Other properties of the optimal auctions are that the seller's reservation price is endogenous, and that in sealed bid auctions the price may exceed the value of the object (winner's curse).