Embodied Technological Change,Learning‐by‐doing and the Productivity Slowdown*

The productivity slowdown in the US economy since the first oil shock has recently been associated with a larger decline rate of the relative price of equipment investment and a smaller rate of disembodied technical change. We set up a growth model in which learning‐by‐doing is the engine of both embodied and disembodied technological progress. A shift in the relative efficiency of learning‐by‐doing from the consumption to the investment sector is shown to imply a technological reassignment consistent with the above‐mentioned evidence. This result derives from the interaction between the obsolescence costs inherent in embodiment and the learning‐by‐doing engine.     

Pricing Contingent Claims on a Risky Asset and Stochastic Interest Rates: A New Discrete Time Approach

This paper presents a new discrete time approach to pricing contingent claims on a risky asset and stochastic interest rates. The term structure of interest rates is modeled so that arbitrage-free bond prices depend on an observable initial forward rate curve rather than an exogenously specified market price of risk. A restricted binomial process is employed to model both interest rates and an asset price. As a result, a complete market valuation formula obtains. By choosing the parameters of the discrete joint distribution such that, in the limit, the discrete model converges to the continuous one, a model is obtained that requires the estimation of only three parameters. The approach is parsimonious with respect to alternative models in the literature and can be used to price contingent claims on any two state variables. The procedure is used to numerically analyze the effects of the volatility of interest rates on the determination of mortgage contract rates.     

Optimal Consumption-Portfolio Policies With Habit Formation1

This is a companion paper to the authors ‘Asset Prices in an Exchange Economy with Habit Formation” in Econometrica which focuses on consumption demand and asset pricing when preferences are habit forming. Here we prove existence of optimal consumption-portfolio policies for (i) utility functions for which the marginal cost of consumption (MCC) interacts with the habit formation process and satisfies a recursive integral equation with forward functional Lipschitz integrand and (ii) utilities for which the MCC is independent of the standard of living and satisfies a recursive integral equation with locally Lipschitz integrand. Result (i) is demonstrated here for the first time. Result (ii) is novel and enables us to consider Cobb-Douglas utilities without placing lower bounds on the system of Arrow-Debreu prices. We also review and extend our earlier results in the linear case; in particular, we provide new insights about the structure of optimal portfolios. Additional new features of the model include the possibility of finite marginal utility of consumption at zero and habit formation mechanisms with stochastic coefficients. an extension to a financial market model with general processes is outlined. A byproduct of the analysis is a set of fixed-point theorems for recursive integral equations with forward functional Lipschitz or locally Lipschitz integrands.     

Technological change and institutional inertia: a game-theoretic approach

In this paper, we study a co-evolutionary model of economic change at two hierarchical levels. At the lower level, institutions are given and the focus is on how resources are allocated and innovation produced in response to the pay-off structure induced by prevailing institutions. At the higher level, it is the institutions themselves that change as the outcome of a process of social bargaining. The main objective of the paper is to study the interaction between these two levels of change, attempting to provide some insight on issues like technological/institutional divergence, technological dead-end, institutional inertia, etc.It appears that evolutionary economics must be the theory of a process of cultural growth as determined by the economic interest, a theory of a cumulative sequence of economic institutions stated in the terms of the process itself. Thorstein Veblen (1898, p. 393).This work was undertaken while the author was a Research Fellow at the Institute for Advanced Studies of the Hebrew University of Jerusalem.     

Are new work practices applied together with ICT and AMT?

The goal of this paper is to analyze the association between Information and Communication Technologies (ICT) and Advanced Manufacturing Technologies (AMT) and the adoption of a number of new work practices, such as job autonomy, teamwork, job breadth, suggestion systems and involvement groups. Special attention is paid to examining whether the strength of the association with new work practices is the same for the two technologies. The data used in the empirical part of the research come from a survey conducted in 281 Spanish manufacturing plants. The results show that ICT use among production workers is only positively related to higher coverage of involvement groups. On the other hand, AMT use is positively associated with the incidence of self-managed teams, job autonomy and suggestion systems. We have found differences between ICT and AMT in the strength of association with new work practices for self-managed teams and suggestion systems.     

Poachers and gamekeepers: processes of class-based organisational closure and usurpation in Sri Lanka’s emerging private sector

In a qualitative study based on 25 interviews, we examine highly skilled workers’ accounts of class-based closure in emerging occupational sectors in Sri Lanka. Our findings reveal holes in the entrance criteria firms demanded to secure their elite status. Highlighting how individuals who were excluded at junior levels negotiate entry at mid/senior levels, we show how ‘poachers turn into gamekeepers’, illuminating the dialectical relationship between exclusion and inclusionary usurpation. We contextualise organisational closure, highlighting the influence of wider societal effects on the process.     

Stability, global dynamics and Markov equilibrium in models of endogenous economic growth

This paper studies the local and global dynamics of two-sector models of endogenous growth with economy-wide external effects and taxes on capital and labor. The local analysis classifies the parameter space depending on the number of stationary solutions and local stability of equilibria. The global analysis shows that if taxes are within certain bounds and the size of the external effects on the average level of human capital is smaller than the share of physical capital, the equilibrium path is monotone and therefore a continuous Markov equilibrium can be constructed.     

Stock market cycles and stock market development in Spain

In this paper we use Spanish stock market data to identify the bull and bear phases of the market and to analyze its characteristics during the period 1941-2002. We compare these characteristics with those of the US and of two other European countries (Germany and the UK). Our sample is divided in two subperiods in order to account for differences induced by the process of development undergone by Spanish capital markets in the late 1980s and early 1990s. We find that the Spanish stock market has become increasingly more similar to those of the more developed countries, although some differences still persist. Additionally, we show that concordance of the Spanish stock market with other developed markets has increased quite significantly.JEL Classification: C22, G15An earlier version of the paper circulated under the title Bulls and bears: lessons from some European countries. Comments from seminar participants at the Universidad de Navarra, at the IX Meeting of the Spanish Finance Association (Pamplona 2001) and at the Royal Econonomic Society Conference (Warwick 2002) are gratefully acknowledged. We are very grateful to J.M. Campa, G. Llorente and two anonymous referees for helpful comments and suggestions. We also thank D. Garcia and the Research Department of the Madrid Stock Exchange for generously providing the data of the Spanish case. Financial assistance from the Spanish Ministry of Science and Technology (SEC2002-01839) is gratefully acknowledged. The usual disclaimer applies.     

Benefit Transfer in Europe: How Reliable Are Transfers between Countries?

The benefits for specific health impacts related to air and water quality were measured in simultaneous contingent valuation surveys conducted in five different European countries. Consistent inter-country differences in willingness to pay to avoid ill health episodes could not be explained by measurable differences in individual characteristics. International transfer of unit values resulted in an average transfer error of 38%. Accounting for measurable differences among countries in health status, income and other demographic measures, either through ad hoc adjustments to the transferred values or through value function transfer, did not improve transfer performance.     

Productivity in the tourism industry

This paper analyzes the efficiency of a Portuguese public-owned hotel chain, Enatur. It applies data envelopment analysis (DEA) to estimate total factor productivity (TFP) change, while breaking it down into technical efficiency and technological change. The benchmarking procedure used is an internal one, which compares hotels with each other. For the period 1999–2001, the hotels are ranked according to their total productivity change. It is concluded that some hotels experienced productivity growth, while others faced a decline. Some implications beneficial for managerial policies were drawn from this study.