A comparison of citizen and “expert” preferences using an attribute-based approach to choice

This paper explores whether expert judgements can be taken as a proxy for citizen preferences for determining investment strategies for public goods. As an illustration, we focus on the provision of Public Rights Of Way (PROW) by Local Government Authorities in England. These provide rights of passage over property to those other than the owners, and little information is available on the welfare effects of changes in the provision and use of PROW. Given limited funds, reliance on expert judgement could be a cost effective alternative for decision-making compared with stated preference surveys of citizens. Two methods are compared. The Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) is used to elicit expert judgement to proxy citizen preferences for different attributes of PROW. The Choice Experiment (CE) technique is then used to derive preferences directly through personal interviews with citizens. Overall it was found that judicious use of AHP by experts can, in this instance, be used to represent citizen views. However, this result may not be easily generalisable to other settings.     

Inertia Risk: Improving Economic Models of Catastrophes*

We model endogenous catastrophic risk in a new way. We call it “inertia risk”, which accounts for delays between physical variables and the hazard rate – a characteristic often observed in reality. The added realism significantly affects optimal policies relative to the standard model of catastrophic risk. The probability of a catastrophe occurring at some point in time can span the entire interval [0,1], and is not 0 or 1 as is typical in standard models. Inertia risk can also generate path dependences. We illustrate the implications for policy in a simple model of climate change.     

Symposium on Social Capital: Introduction

This symposium contains three papers that discuss aspects of social capital. Social capital has become a major focus of research in many social sciences. Its increased prominence in economics reflects a general increase in interest in questions that have traditionally been deemed sociological. Regardless of one's opinion of social capital per se , this broadening of questions addressed within economics has been very salutary.     

Russian workers’ experiences with and perceptions of sexual harassment severity

As the reach of global business operations increases, cultural context will likely influence the nature and amount of sexual harassment workers experience. Surprisingly, little is known about sexual harassment in Russia, an attractive target for expanding companies. To address this gap in the literature, we examine Russian workers’ perceptions of sexual harassment severity through the lens of cultural context. In particular, we examine the sexual harassment severity perceptions from the perspective of both targets and perpetrators. Results indicate that as targets of sexual harassment, Russian women and men held similar sexual harassment severity perceptions. However, as perpetrators, Russian women reported perceiving the harassment they committed as being less severe than the reports of Russian men. Further, among both targets and perpetrators, Russian women held less permissive sexual attitudes than Russian men, with this difference mediating the relationship between participant sex and perceived sexual harassment severity: women perceived greater severity than men because women hold less permissive sexual attitudes. Implications for research, practice, and the role of national culture in shaping the social construction of sexual harassment are discussed.     

定向增发公告效应在股市中的异化现象——关于中国证券市场的实证研究

本文以中国证券市场2006～2008年成功进行定向增发的上市公司为样本,研究了定向增发公告效应在牛市、熊市中的异化现象。研究发现在牛市周期中仅仅公告日当天存在显著的正公告效应,公告日前后都不存在显著的正公告效应;但是在熊市周期中不仅公告日当天存在显著正公告效应,而且从公告日前两天开始一直到公告日后10天都存在显著正公告效应。在不同市场态势下,公告效应与折扣的关系也不相同:在熊市周期中,随着定向增发折扣的增加,公告效应相应减弱,而在牛市周期中公告效应增强。最后,论文给出了基于投资者情绪的理论解释以及相应的启示。     

我国城市化水平与区域经济增长差异实证研究

基于1989-2009年省级面板数据设定了协整模型,分析了我国城市化水平与区域经济增长的长期关系。结果显示,我国城市化水平与区域经济增长之间存在显著的正相关性,且两者之间存在长期稳定的协整关系。在总体上,城市化水平对经济增长的促进作用在不同区域间的差距较大,城市化水平对区域经济发展的影响排序依次为:东部、中部、东北部、西部。因此,在加快城市化进程中做好户籍制度改革,将有利于从根本上提高城市化水平,促进区域经济的增长,消除地区经济差距。     

A buyer's perspective on collaborative versus transactional relationships

This research examines collaborative and transactional relationships in buying firms to determine whether collaborative relationships offer greater benefits than transactional relationships, and to ascertain which relational factors drive satisfaction and performance for both collaborative and transactional relationship types. Factor analysis, t-tests and step-wise regression were used to analyze data from a survey of buying firms. Results show that collaborative relationships offer higher levels of satisfaction and performance than transactional relationships. Satisfaction factored into two separate constructs: satisfaction with the relationship and satisfaction with the results. Of the relational factors examined, trust is the most important predictor of performance and satisfaction with the relationship regardless of the type of relationship examined.     

Seasonal decomposition and forecasting of telecommunication data: A comparative case study

In this paper, forecasting models for the monthly outgoing telephone calls in a University Campus are presented. The data have been separated in the categories of international and national calls as well as calls to mobile phones. The total number of calls has also been analyzed. Three different methods, namely the Seasonal Decomposition, Exponential Smoothing Method and SARIMA Method, have been used. Forecasts with 95% confidence intervals were calculated for each method and compared with the actual data. The outcome of this work can be used to predict future demands for the telecommunications network of the University.     

Peter Drucker on marketing: an exploration of five tenets

The authors review Peter Drucker’s contributions to marketing theory and practice. A bibliometric analysis of Drucker’s academic influence in marketing is presented. The five main tenets that are derived from the bibliometric study are expanded upon as follows: (1) The Marketing Concept: Creating Value for Customers; (2) Broadened Role of Marketing in Society: Corporate Social Responsibility, Consumerism, Social Marketing, and Lessons from Non-Profit Organizations; (3) Contributions to Marketing Strategy: The Obvious and Not So Obvious; (4) Marketing-Innovation Interface: New Product Development; (5) Future of Globalization: Rise of Non-National Enterprises.