Changes in US Monetary Policy and Its Transmission over the Last Century

In this paper, we investigate US monetary policy and its time‐varying effects over more than 130 years. For that purpose, we use a Bayesian time‐varying parameter vector autoregression that features modern shrinkage priors and stochastic volatility. Our results can be summarized as follows: First, we find that monetary policy transmits jointly through the interest rate, credit/bank lending and wealth channels. Second, we find evidence for changes of both responses to a monetary policy shock and volatility characterizing the macroeconomic environment. Effects on the macroeconomy are significantly lower in the period from 1960 to 2013 than in the early part of our sample, whereas responses of short‐ and long‐term interest rates are nearly unaltered throughout the sample. Changes in the way the Fed conducts monetary policy and different economic environments may account for that.     

What matters in a price negotiation: Evidence from the U.S. auto retailing industry

While there is a great deal of theoretical and experimental literature on what factors affect bargaining outcomes, there is little empirical work based on data from real markets. In this paper we analyze negotiations for new cars, a $340 billion industry in the United States in 2010. Our results suggest that search costs, incomplete information, and bargaining disutility have an economically significant effect in real-world negotiations: we estimate that relative to an uninformed consumer, a consumer with basic information about the seller’s reservation price and his own outside options captures 15% of the average dealer margin from selling an automobile. We also find that a buyer’s search cost and bargaining disutility have significant effects on bargaining outcomes. Finally, our results show that while search is common, there remains a substantial group of consumers who do not engage in any of the search behaviors we measure. We hypothesize that these buyers are not aware of how easy and effective certain activities in improving negotiation outcomes can be.     

The consequences of land-use change and water demands in Central Mongolia

After two decades of decreasing agricultural activities, in 2008 the Mongolian government started the “Third Campaign of Reclaiming Virgin Lands”, aiming at massive expansion and intensification of the agricultural sector. This policy motivated the study presented here, for which we used an integrated modelling approach to investigate the feedbacks between land-use dynamics, agricultural management and biophysical conditions, with a strong focus on assessing availability of water for irrigation. Our simulation results clearly show that under the current extend of irrigated agriculture in several years water demands exceeded water availability, indicating an overexploitation of water resources, mainly in the period 1995–2006. Consequently, the targeted expansion of agricultural water use will either severely deplete water resources with potential negative effects on other users and the environment, or policies are needed to mitigate or avoid potential adverse effects. As simultaneously Mongolian authorities struggle to implement integrated water resources management (IWRM), the latter might provide monitoring concepts and regulations needed to minimise the potential gap between water demands and availability. In this context, integrated modelling could be a scientific tool to support future land and water management decisions, as researchers already started to integrate views and demands of Mongolian authorities into scenario and model development (identified during stakeholder workshops), and will continue to do so during the coming years of collaborative research.     

Expanding Insights on the Diversity Climate–Performance Link: The Role of Workgroup Discrimination and Group Size

The present study extends knowledge of the performance consequences of workgroup diversity climate. Building upon Kopelman, Brief, and Guzzo's ( 1990 ) climate model of productivity, we introduce workgroup discrimination as a behavioral mediator that explains the positive effects of diversity climate on workgroup performance. In addition, we investigate group size as a moderator upon which this mediated relationship depends. We test these moderated‐mediated propositions using a split‐sample design and data from 248 military workgroups comprising 8,707 respondents. Findings from structural equation modeling reveal that diversity climate is consistently positively related to workgroup performance and that this relationship is mediated by discrimination. Results yield a pattern of moderated mediation, in that the indirect relationship between workgroup diversity climate (through perceptions of workgroup discrimination) and group performance was more pronounced in larger than in smaller workgroups. These results illustrate that discrimination and group size represent key factors in determining how a diversity climate is associated with group performance and, thus, have significant implications for research and practice. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

Importing,exporting and performance in sub-Saharan African manufacturing firms

This paper examines productivity differences between internationally trading and non-trading firms using data on a sample of firms from 19 sub-Saharan African countries. The paper provides the first evidence of whether exporters, importers and two-way traders perform better than non-traders, and whether there are differences in performance between different types of trading firms in sub-Saharan Africa. Our results indicate that exporters, importers and two-way traders perform better than non-exporters, non-importers and non-two-way traders. We further find that two-way traders perform better than importers only or exporters only, results largely consistent with recent results for other countries and regions. Considering information on export starters, continuers and exiters we also present some evidence suggesting that there is no significant difference in performance between export continuers and starters.     

The determinants of recovery rates in the US corporate bond market

We examine recovery rates of defaulted bonds in the US corporate bond market, based on a complete set of traded prices and volumes. A study of the trading microstructure around various types of default events is provided. We document temporary price pressure with high trading volumes on the default day and the following 30 days, and low trading activity thereafter. Based on this analysis, we determine market-based recovery rates and quantify various liquidity measures. We study the relation between the recovery rates and these measures, considering additionally a comprehensive set of bond characteristics, firm fundamentals, and macroeconomic variables.     

Exchange rate pass-through into German import prices – a disaggregated perspective

This study analyses the exchange rate pass-through into German import prices based on disaggregated data taken on a monthly basis between 1995 and 2012. Our main contribution is twofold: firstly, we employ various time-series techniques to analyse data for different product categories, and also cointegration techniques to carefully distinguish between short-run and long-run pass-through coefficients. Secondly, in a panel data approach we estimate time-varying pass-through coefficients and explain their development with regard to various macroeconomic factors. Our results show that long-run pass-through is only partly observable and incomplete, whereas short-run pass-through shows a more unique character, although heterogeneity across product groups does exist. We are also able to identify several macroeconomic factors that determine changes in the degree of pass-through, which is especially relevant for policymakers.