Social Network and Weight Misperception among Adolescents

It is recognized that public health intervention targeted toward changing lifestyle behaviors to reduce overweight status is a considerable challenge. It is important that individuals recognize their overweight status as a health risk in order for an effective change in lifestyle behaviors to occur, and growing evidence suggests that actual weight and perception of weight status often do not match, especially among adolescents. In this article, we explore the extent to which exposure to heavier peers and parents affects misperception of their own weight status by adolescents. Using data from a nationally representative sample of adolescents, we estimated instrumental variable models with school‐level fixed effects to account for bidirectionality of peer influence and environmental confounders. Our results indicate that individuals who live in an environment that exposes them to overweight/obese parents and heavier peers tend to misperceive their weight status and think of themselves to be of lower weight than they actually are. Our analysis also revealed differential effects by gender and type of peers.     

Inside innovation persistence: New evidence from Italian micro-data

This paper contributes the analysis of the persistence of innovation activities, as measured by different innovation indicators and explores its past and path dependent characteristics. The study provides new insights on the role of R&D investments in innovation persistence and analyses differentiated patterns of persistence across product and process innovation, by accounting for complementarity effects between the two types of innovative behaviour. The empirical analysis is based on a sample of 451 Italian manufacturing companies observed during the years 1998–2006. Results highlight the relevance of innovation persistence. The highest level of persistence is found for R&D-based innovation activities, witnessing the actual presence of significant entry and exit barriers. Moreover, we obtain more robust evidence of persistence for product innovation than for process innovation when complementarity effects between the two types of innovation are accounted for.     

Food policy research for improving the reform of agricultural input and output markets in Central Asia

Agriculture is a significant component of the Central Asian economies. Since independence, the republics have implemented agricultural reforms in varying measure, yet production has fallen sharply across the region. The more ambitious agricultural reform programs have included measures aimed at liberalizing agricultural marketing, trade and prices. However, so far the expected supply response has yet to emerge. The objective of this paper is to highlight key policy and research issues surrounding reform of agricultural markets. It summarizes the main features of agricultural performance since the reforms, highlighting trends in grain and cotton, livestock, input use, and trade and analyzes key constraints to improvement of the sector, emphasizing price policy, sequencing problems, and institutional weakness. It presents a research agenda by identifying the main research needs for better agricultural policy design. It calls for more research on input and output market efficiency, private sector development, the effects of reform on farmers, sequencing issues, comparative advantage, water management, land tenure and farm size.     

Banking and the role of money in the business cycle

This paper enriches a standard New Keynesian model with a simple banking sector to investigate the role of money in the business cycle. Maximum likelihood estimation of the model suggests that money balances play a significant role in explaining the intertemporal allocation of consumption and the dynamics of inflation as described by the forward-looking IS and Phillips curves. Nonetheless, the responses of the model’s variables to shocks remain qualitatively similar to a model without money, suggesting that the omission of money balances leaves the model’s transmission mechanism unaffected.     

Accurate Short-Term Yield Curve Forecasting using Functional Gradient Descent

We propose a multivariate nonparametric technique for generatingreliable short-term historical yield curve scenarios and confidenceintervals. The approach is based on a Functional Gradient Descent(FGD) estimation of the conditional mean vector and covariancematrix of a multivariate interest rate series. It is computationallyfeasible in large dimensions and it can account for nonlinearitiesin the dependence of interest rates at all available maturities.Based on FGD we apply filtered historical simulation to computereliable out-of-sample yield curve scenarios and confidenceintervals. We back-test our methodology on daily USD bond datafor forecasting horizons from 1 to 10 days. Based on severalstatistical performance measures we find significant evidenceof a higher predictive power of our method when compared toscenarios generating techniques based on (i) factor analysis,(ii) a multivariate CCC-GARCH model, or (iii) an exponentialsmoothing covariances estimator as in the RiskMetrics^TM approach.     

Switch,Switch, Switch! A Regime-Switching Option-Based Model for Valuing a Tolling Agreement

This article proposes a real options valuation of a tolling contract using a combined switching option and volatility regime switching model. In a tolling-based transaction, the toller becomes the energy manager (but not the owner) of the power plant, having the option to switch it on or off to benefit from (mitigate) the upside (downside) potential related to frequent, jumpy fluctuations of power (and gas) prices. Value creation from such flexibility in managing the spark spread risk may be better captured by expanding the static NPV of the plant via exercise of a switching (compound) option having the plant itself as an underlying two-market-based asset portfolio (electricity and gas). Results from adoption of a pentanomial lattice pricing approach show that the set of tolling fees the toller would prefer to pay to the tollee “in equilibrium” is a decreasing function in the portfolio volatility because of the higher risk being borne by the former. Though the toller is willing to fairly pay equal or less than the value created from active management of the power plant, obtaining a positive net profit, the tollee may rely on a constant flow of bullet bond-like installments, securing remuneration of equity capital invested and arrangement of a project financing for plant construction.     

Using Electronic Response Systems in Economics Classes

College instructors and students participated in a pilot project at the University of Akron to enhance student learning through the use of a common teaching pedagogy, peer instruction. The teaching pedagogy was supported by the use of technology, an electronic personal response system, which recorded student responses. The authors report their experiences in using this technology-enhanced teaching pedagogy and provide another example of an active and collaborative learning tool that instructors can use to move beyond “chalk and talk.” Preliminary survey results from students participating in this pilot project are also reported.     

Financial systemic risk: Taxation or regulation?

This paper describes financial systemic risk as a pollution issue. Free riding leads to excess risk production. This problem may be solved, at least partially, either by financial regulation or by taxation. From a normative viewpoint, taxation is superior in many respects. However, reality shows that financial regulation is adopted more frequently. This paper makes a positive, politico-economic argument. If the majority chooses regulation, the level is likely to be too harsh. If it chooses taxation, then the level is likely to be too low. Due to regressive effects, a tax on financial transactions receives low support from a majority of low polluting portfolio owners. The same kind of majority may strategically choose regulation in order to burden the minority with a larger share of the cost of reducing systemic risk.