Accurate Short-Term Yield Curve Forecasting using Functional Gradient Descent

We propose a multivariate nonparametric technique for generatingreliable short-term historical yield curve scenarios and confidenceintervals. The approach is based on a Functional Gradient Descent(FGD) estimation of the conditional mean vector and covariancematrix of a multivariate interest rate series. It is computationallyfeasible in large dimensions and it can account for nonlinearitiesin the dependence of interest rates at all available maturities.Based on FGD we apply filtered historical simulation to computereliable out-of-sample yield curve scenarios and confidenceintervals. We back-test our methodology on daily USD bond datafor forecasting horizons from 1 to 10 days. Based on severalstatistical performance measures we find significant evidenceof a higher predictive power of our method when compared toscenarios generating techniques based on (i) factor analysis,(ii) a multivariate CCC-GARCH model, or (iii) an exponentialsmoothing covariances estimator as in the RiskMetrics^TM approach.     

Designing feasible and effective health plan payments in countries with data availability constraints

Risk equalization schemes, which transfer money to/from insurers that have above/below average risks, are a fundamental tool in regulated health insurance markets in many countries. Risk sharing (the transfer of some responsibility for costs from a plan to the regulator or the overall insurance market), are an additional method of insulating insurers who attract higher-than-average risks. This paper proposes, implements and quantifies incorporating risk sharing within a risk equalization scheme that can be applied in a data-poor context. Using Chile's private health insurance market as case study, we show that modest amount of risk sharing greatly improves fit even in simple demographic-based risk equalization. Expanding the model's formula to include morbidity-based adjustors and risk sharing redirects compensations at insurer level and reduces opportunity to engage in profitable risk selection at the group level. Our emphasis on feasibility may make alternatives proposed attractive to countries facing data-availability constraints.     

Measuring Value‐at‐Risk in Project Finance Transactions

Despite the remarkable importance of project finance in international financial markets, no quantitative models to measure and quantify the risk associated with a deal for the project's lenders have been developed yet. The topic has recently become crucial, since the New Basle Capital Accord gives banks a choice of whether to adopt simpler (but possibly higher) standard capital requirements or to develop internal rating models for project finance transactions. The paper proposes how Monte Carlo simulations may be used to derive a Value‐at‐Risk estimate for project finance deals and discusses the critical issues that must be considered when developing such a model.     

Fiscal stimulus and the role of wage rigidity

In this paper we study the impact of an expansion in public spending in an economy characterized by limited asset market participation and sticky wages. The flexible wage version of the model implies strong expansionary effects on output and consumption but also a counterfactual increase in real wages. The introduction of sticky wages, besides being a realistic addition, solves this problem and preserves the expansionary effects on output and consumption. Moreover, once we introduce segmentation in the labor market, sticky wages are even essential to obtain expansionary effects.     

Firm age and performance

Amid increasing interest in firm age and its effects on firm performance, this special issue offers an exhaustive review of the literature and a novel collection of evidence on the effects of firm age on performance, including a special focus of interest on innovation performance, financial performance, exports, survival and growth. This editorial positions the theme in the extant literature, and provides key definitions and challenges ahead in the field of evolutionary economics. It introduces the collection of articles composing the special issue. The papers offer a diversity of country contexts, as well as analytical approaches and methods. They include an exhaustive review of the literature on age and firms’ performance, and present original empirical studies focusing on the effects of age on firms’ economic outcomes on the one hand, and on innovation outcomes on the other hand. While most of the papers use econometric analysis, the level of analysis ranges from firm to individual.     

Critical mass of users versus critical mass of services in a multiproduct information service system

In this paper we study the economic behaviour of the suppliers of a set of advanced telecommunications services with a joint adoption cost (common access facilities, learning process, etc.). In fixing the two-part tariffs for their services the suppliers have to share the burden of leaving to the users a surplus sufficient to cover the adoption cost. The lack of coordination in supplying a critical mass of services or in the pricing decisions has high changes to result in suboptimal or unviable diffusion of the new technology as a whole. We present a static optimization model of user behaviour, and derive access and usage demand with a two-part tariff and a joint adoption cost. We compare noncooperative and cooperative market equilibria in a duopoly with perfect information; finally we discuss the extension of our analysis to the case of imperfect information in a dynamic setting.     

Limits to creative destruction and technologies in practice: the case of ham radio

Drawing on the structurationist notion of ‘technologies-in-practice’, this article analyses the different types of technological actions that users perform, after technological change, in order to keep a declining technology alive over time. The research question of the article is: How do technologies-in-practice based on the application of new technology hamper the creative destruction of old technology? The case study of ham radio technology and amateur radio operators is explored. The results of the investigation support the development of a technology-in-practice ‘experimentation’ and four inductive research propositions.     

Well-being and the Great Recession in Spain

This letter assesses the impact of the Great Recession on well-being in Spanish provinces using two alternative composite indicators of objective well-being that include somewhat different dimensions. Whereas the crisis notably eroded economic well-being, its impact on overall well-being – which in addition to economic dimensions also includes non-economic ones – was imperceptible. This result points to the need to carefully define and assess well-being in empirical analyses.     

Labor Market Dynamics: A Time‐Varying Analysis

This paper studies how key labour market stylized facts and the responses of labour market variables to technology shocks vary over the US postwar period. It uses a benchmark dynamic, stochastic, general equilibrium model enriched with labour market frictions and investment‐specific technological progress that enables a novel identification scheme based on sign restrictions on a SVAR with time‐varying coefficients and stochastic volatility. Key findings are: (i) the volatility in job finding and separation rates has declined over time, while their correlation varies across time; (ii) the job finding rate plays an important role for unemployment, and the two series are strongly negatively correlated over the sample period; (iii) the magnitude of the response of labour market variables to technology shocks varies across the sample period.