Forecasting US consumer price index: does nonlinearity matter?

The objective of this article is to predict, both in sample and out of sample, the consumer price index (CPI) of the US economy based on monthly data covering the period of 1980:1–2013:12, using a variety of linear (random walk (RW), autoregressive (AR) and seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA)) and nonlinear (artificial neural network (ANN) and genetic programming (GP)) univariate models. Our results show that, while the SARIMA model is superior relative to other linear and nonlinear models, as it tends to produce smaller forecast errors; statistically, these forecasting gains are not significant relative to higher-order AR and nonlinear models, though simple benchmarks like the RW and AR(1) models are statistically outperformed. Overall, we show that in terms of forecasting the US CPI, accounting for nonlinearity does not necessarily provide us with any statistical gains.     

Are firms accessing venture funding more financially constrained? New evidence from capital structure adjustments

We analyze whether firms that receive venture capital (VC) at a later date face more financial constraints than a one-by-one matched sample of firms that did not receive VC funding (control group). The aim is to check whether their financial flexibility explains why they decide to seek external equity funding. In contrast with other papers, which focus on the sensitivity of investments to cash flow, we study this issue by applying a dynamic model to analyze the speed of adjustment to their target debt levels prior to receiving the first VC investment. We analyze a representative sample of 237 Spanish unlisted firms that received VC between 1995 and 2007 and its corresponding control group. We find that firms that receive VC funding show a significantly lower speed of adjustment than their matched peers before the initial VC round. It seems that the former are more concerned about funding the required investments than about adjusting the firm's debt ratio to a target level. Our results confirm the role of VC in filling the equity gap in constrained unlisted firms. From a capital structure perspective, VC may become a tool for these companies to balance their capital structure in a growth process.     

Visual displays: analytical study and applications to graphs and real data

Principal axis methods such as principal component analysis (PCA) and correspondence analysis (CA) are useful for identifying structures in data through interesting planar graphic displays. However, some kinds of data sets can be dealt alternatively with PCA or CA. This paper focuses on methods, such as PCA and CA, and on visual displays. Our aim is to illustrate the implications for a potential user of selecting either method, and its advantages and disadvantages, from an applied point of view. This is a matter covered broadly in textbooks and elsewhere considering theoretical arguments. Our purpose is to contribute to the comparison between these methods, over the same data set, in order to illustrate them for the practitioner. In the first part of this paper we present a novel analytical study of a binary matrix associated with a non-oriented axis-symmetric graph and show that CA outperforms standardized PCA for the reconstitution and visualization of such kind of graphs. In the second part we present a case using real data dealing with the distribution of employees in different economic sectors for the countries of the European Union, analyzed by means of standardized PCA and two-way CA, in order to see the differences between the two methods in practice.     

Altruism and the Economic Values of Environmental and Social Policies

Altruism is a type of non-use value which can have different definitions depending on the type of goods entering the utility function of the altruists and their expectations about the contributions of others. The purpose of this paper is to measure the trade-offs between different types of altruist values originating from social and environmental policies. Environmental policies are concerned with reducing health effects from a power plant while social policies involve both the attainment of public facilities for education and leisure and an increase in the income of the affected population. The empirical application utilizes a choice experiment technique which allows for valuation of multiple goods. Health effects are decomposed into the values of the risk of becoming ill, the duration of the episodes and the limitations imposed by illness. Altruist values are elicited from a population that is not affected by pollution. Results show that altruism is significant for policies directed to reducing health effects and improving the income level of the affected population, whereas there is egoism for a policy aimed at improving public facilities in the polluted suburb. The value of altruism is significantly influenced by the expectations of net benefits to be received by the affected population.     

A note on how to measure hubbing practices in airline networks

Benefits and costs associated to hubbing practices of airlines are still subject to much debate. In the previous literature, some standard spatial concentration indices have been proposed to measure it. However, we show that these indices are “ill-defined” because they do not take into account the salient characteristic of hubbing: connecting passengers. The purpose of this research is to present a new methodology which avoids the pitfalls of other methods. Our new methodology also analyzes the level of concentration of the connecting passengers studying two different dimensions: hub airports and routes. Finally, we apply our methodology to some US carriers.     

Estimating cellphone providers' customer equity

This paper provides insights about how customer equity estimates can help businesses monitor the competition as well as aid managers in making their marketing investment decisions, and how companies can employ their marketing investments to maximize current and future yield/returns. The article concerns itself with the current offer of cellphone providers and their main products. The research includes survey data through interviews with 302 cellphone users of Sao Paulo, Brazil. The study uses this data combined with a number of economic assumptions and a financial marketing model to create an insight in customer equity values of cellphone providers in the region. The scenario dated October 2005 is that the estimated customer equity of the service provider Vivo is, respectively, 93 and 91% larger than those of competing providers Claro and TIM. The research underlines that on average the customer equity flowing from the post-paid segment is 3.5 times larger than that of the pre-paid. In addition to these results the study provides the customer lifetime value (CLV) estimates for Claro's, TIM's and Vivo's pre- and post-paid customers and analyzes the retention and loss figures of CLV. Also a discussion follows of the implications that these values will likely have for the companies' marketing strategy.     

Is the influence of the industrial district on international activities being eroded by globalization?: Evidence from a traditional manufacturing industry

This study provides insight into the impact of industrial districts on the international activities of firms, in the particular context of one traditional manufacturing industry: the Spanish home-textile industry. Using a sample of 128 manufacturing firms, the paper shows how location influences the timing and levels of exports and imports. Moreover, our results demonstrate how these influences have been diluted in recent years as the home-textile industry becomes more involved in the global arena. Our findings challenge some key arguments exploring the advantages of the district in the international activities of firms; in particular, first, in questioning the capacity of the district to prevent international sourcing, and second, its vulnerability to the threats created by the growing integration of the world economy.     

Perception evaluation kit: a case study with materials and learning styles

International Journal of Technology and Design Education - Materials are elements that configure our built environment and are key components in design and engineering education. This research aims...     

Who buys newspapers in Spain? An analysis of the determinants of the probability to buy newspapers and of the amount spent

In this paper, we examine the determinants of household consumption of newspapers and the amount spent on their purchase by considering several explanatory variables related to household characteristics and the main household wage earner. Results show that the variables have quite similar effects on both the relative probability of buying newspapers and the amount spent. The key variables are the age and occupational status of the main wage earner, the number of household members, income and having to pay for the house, as well as a number of geographical variables. However, certain differences are also observed. The most important is the education of the main wage earner: while its effect on buying newspapers is very small (only those who did not complete primary education are less likely to buy), its effect on the amount spent increases with the level of education. As other studies of cultural goods and services consumption have suggested, education and occupational status are more relevant determinants than income.