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31.
Formulas have been obtained for the moments of the discounted aggregate claims process, for a constant instantaneous interest rate, and for a claims number process that is an ordinary or a delayed renewal process. In this paper, we present explicit formulas on the first two moments and the joint moment of this risk process, for a non-trivial extension to a stochastic instantaneous interest rate. Examples are given for Erlang claims number processes, and for the Ho–Lee–Merton and the Vasicek interest rate models. 相似文献
32.
This paper addresses the questions whether European mutual fund managers rely on sell-side analyst information and whether this behavior impacts fund performance. Results show that mutual funds significantly increase (decrease) their holdings in stocks when any of the consensus forecast measures increases (decreases) within the quarter prior to the observation period. Furthermore, mutual fund managers primarily attribute high information value to consensus forecast revisions that contain positive information, that are based on a sufficiently high number of inputs, and with more unanimous inputs to the consensus. Finally, following sell-side research seems to be beneficial for mutual fund managers since our results show that stock trades that are in line with analyst forecast revisions significantly outperform trades that are contrary to analyst research. 相似文献
33.
Franck Adékambi 《Scandinavian actuarial journal》2017,2017(1):29-50
The moments of the random future liabilities of health insurance policies are key quantities for studying distributional properties of the future liabilities. Assuming that the randomness of the future health status of individual policyholders can be described by a semi-Markovian multistate model, integral and differential equations are derived for moments of any order and for the moment generating function. Different representations are derived and discussed with a view to numerical solution methods. 相似文献
34.
This paper analyzes the adverse incentive effects produced by money injections of benefactors [sugar daddies (SD)]. We show that the existence of a SD induces the club to choose a riskier investment strategy and the more the SD commits to bailout the club, the more the clubs’ optimal level of riskiness increases. Moreover, a private SD bails out the club less often than a public SD. Our model further shows that a ‘too‐big‐to‐fail’ phenomenon exists because it is optimal to always bailout a club if its market size is sufficiently large. 相似文献
35.
This paper applies contest theory to provide an integrated framework of a team sports league and analyzes the competitive interaction between clubs. We show that dissipation of the league revenue arises from 'overinvestment' in playing talent as a direct consequence of the ruinous competitive interaction between clubs. This overinvestment problem increases if the discriminatory power of the contest function increases, revenue-sharing decreases, and the size of an additional exogenous prize increases. We further show that clubs invest more when they play in an open league compared with a closed league. Moreover, the overinvestment problem within open leagues increases with the revenue differential between leagues. 相似文献
36.
Paul L. Darius Kenneth M. Portier Eddie Schrevens 《Revue internationale de statistique》2007,75(3):281-294
The ability to design experiments in an appropriate and efficient way is an important skill, but students typically have little opportunity to get that experience. Most textbooks introduce standard general‐purpose designs, and then proceed with the analysis of data already collected. In this paper we explore a tool for gaining design experience: computer‐based virtual experiments. These are software environments which mimic a real situation of interest and invite the user to collect data to answer a research question. Two prototype environments are described. The first one is suitable for a course that deals with screening or response surface designs, the second one allows experimenting with block and row‐column designs. They are parts of a collection we developed called ENV2EXP, and can be freely used over the web. We also describe our experience in using them in several courses over the last few years. 相似文献
37.
The classic DCF approach to capital budgeting—the one that MBA students in the world's top business schools have been taught for the last 30 years—begins with the assumption that the corporate investment decision is “independent of” the financing decision. That is, the value of a given investment opportunity should not be affected by how a company is financed, whether mainly with debt or with equity. A corollary of this capital structure “irrelevance” proposition says that a company's investment decision should also not be influenced by its risk management policy—by whether a company hedges its various price exposures or chooses to leave them unhedged. In this article, the authors—one of whom is the CFO of the French high‐tech firm Gemalto—propose a practical alternative to DCF that is based on a concept they call “cash‐flow@risk.” Implementation of the concept involves dividing expected future cash flow into two components: a low‐risk part, or “certainty equivalent,” and a high‐risk part. The two cash flow streams are discounted at different rates (corresponding to debt and equity) when estimating their value. The concept of cash‐flow@risk derives directly from, and is fully consistent with, the concept of economic capital that was developed by Robert Merton and Andre Perold in the early 1990s and that has become the basis of Value at Risk (or VaR) capital allocation systems now used at most financial institutions. But because the approach in this article focuses on the volatility of operating cash flows instead of asset values, the authors argue that an internal capital allocation system based on cash‐flow@risk is likely to be much more suitable than VaR for industrial companies. 相似文献
38.
Karine Hervé Nigel Pain Pete Richardson Franck Sédillot Pierre-Olivier Beffy 《Economic Modelling》2011,28(1-2):589-601
This paper provides a summary of the OECD's new global macroeconometric model, including an overview of model structure and a selection of simulations illustrating its main properties. Compared with its predecessors, the new model is more compact and regionally aggregated, but gives more weight to the focus of policy interests in global trade and financial linkages. The country model structures typically combine short-term Keynesian-type dynamics with a consistent long-run neo-classical supply-side. While retaining a conventional treatment of international trade and payments linkages, the model has a greater degree of stock-flow consistency, with explicit modelling of domestic and international assets, liabilities and associated income streams. Account is also taken of the influence of financial and housing market developments on asset valuation and domestic expenditures via house and equity prices, interest rates and exchange rates. As a result, the model gives more prominence to wealth and wealth effects in determining longer-term outcomes and the role of asset prices in the transmission of international shocks both to goods and financial markets. 相似文献
39.
Gordon Goodall Mark Lamotte Mafalda Ramos Franck Maunoury Barbora Pejchalova Gerard de Pouvourville 《Journal of medical economics》2019,22(4):289-296
Objective: Transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI) has become the therapy of choice for treating severe aortic stenosis in patients at high-risk for surgery or where it is considered too risky to attempt. This uptake varies across geographies however, and its cost or value has frequently been cited as the reason for this. We sought to evaluate the potential cost and clinical impact of TAVI in intermediate risk patients from a French collective perspective.Materials and methods: The analysis was performed using a novel Markov model with data derived from the PARTNER II randomized controlled trial for survival, clinical event rates, and quality-of-life. The simulated time horizon was 15?years, costs were from French sources and presented in 2016 Euros. Discounting of all outcomes was at 4% annually and the effect of uncertainty in model parameters was explored by deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analysis (PSA).Results: In comparison to surgery, TAVI resulted in improved clinical outcomes (life expectancy and quality-adjusted life expectancy) and lower costs over a lifetime time horizon. The base case results showed increases of 0.42?years and 0.41 QALYs with lifetime cost savings of €439 for TAVI compared to surgery. PSA results showed a >50% likelihood of cost-effectiveness at €0 willingness-to-pay and a 100% likelihood at ~€15,000.Limitations: Clinically, survival projections are based on limited follow-up data and introduce uncertainty into the outcomes from the model. Economically, procedure costs are derived from a heterogeneous mix of patient risk groups, although this is much more likely to bias against TAVI and under-estimate overall cost savings.Conclusions: In our analyses of intermediate risk patients, TAVI is associated with superior clinical outcomes compared to surgery and is cost saving. It could be expected that cost savings are conservative and likely to increase over time. 相似文献
40.
Carole Bernard Franck Moraux Ludger Rüschendorf Steven Vanduffel 《Quantitative Finance》2013,13(7):1157-1173
Most decision theories, including expected utility theory, rank-dependent utility theory and cumulative prospect theory, assume that investors are only interested in the distribution of returns and not in the states of the economy in which income is received. Optimal payoffs have their lowest outcomes when the economy is in a downturn, and this feature is often at odds with the needs of many investors. We introduce a framework for portfolio selection within which state-dependent preferences can be accommodated. Specifically, we assume that investors care about the distribution of final wealth and its interaction with some benchmark. In this context, we are able to characterize optimal payoffs in explicit form. Furthermore, we extend the classical expected utility optimization problem of Merton to the state-dependent situation. Some applications in security design are discussed in detail and we also solve some stochastic extensions of the target probability optimization problem. 相似文献