The Gap between the Theory and Practice of Corporate Valuation: Survey of European Experts

The valuation of companies or their assets is at the heart of most financing and investment decisions. Over the last five decades, academics have developed several simple and sophisticated models for corporate valuation. Yet valuation estimates of a firm or its assets appear to vary widely among practitioners. It is unclear whether these differences arise from practitioners' use of different valuation models or from differences in their assumptions about the inputs used in those models. To provide some insights into this issue, the authors recently surveyed 365 European finance practitioners with CFAs or equivalent professional degrees. They find that almost all survey respondents use the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model (along with some version of Relative Valuation that relies on the use of “comparables”). But the estimation methods of such practitioners for almost all inputs in the DCF model, including beta, the equity market risk premium, leverage, cost of debt, and terminal value, vary widely. This can be a serious problem because even small differences in inputs can cause huge variations in valuations. Such differences arise primarily because theory provides little guidance on how to estimate parameters, leaving practitioners to make their own assumptions and judgments. In sum, the authors' findings suggest that the process of estimating valuation parameters can be as important as the choice of the valuation model itself, and requires the serious attention of academics and practitioners. The authors recommend that key valuation parameter estimates be disclosed in financial and valuation reports. Their findings are also relevant to policy makers because the concept of “fair value” plays such a central role in post‐crisis regulation.     

Does God practice a random walk? The 'financial physics' of a nineteenth-century forerunner,Jules Regnault

We analyse the work of a neglected French economist, Jules Regnault, whose Calcul des Chances et Philosophie de la Bourse (1863) laid the basis of modern stochastic models of price behaviour and contains an anticipation of econometrics. At a time when short-term speculation was denounced as immoral, he approached this question ‘scientifically’ and constructed two models. The first one was relative to short-term speculation and took the shape of a random walk - a model used by Bachelier (1900). The second one deals with long-term speculation and aims at evaluating the mean value of the French 3 per cent bond.     

The consequences of earnings management for the acquisition premium in friendly takeovers

This study investigates the effect of earnings management (EM) on deal premiums in friendly takeovers. It examines both accruals and real EM in the year preceding the deal announcement, based on a sample of 578 European firms subject to an acquisition or acquisition attempt between 2005 and 2015. The empirical findings suggest that downward EM is associated with a higher premium offered by the acquirer. The results suggest that income-decreasing accounting choices could be a negotiated strategy between the acquirer and target firms’ managers to clean the balance sheet, reduce the likelihood of litigation, and create a fictive performance through an accrual reversal post-acquisition.