Timing structural change: a conditional probabilistic approach

We propose a strategy for assessing structural stability in time‐series frameworks when potential change dates are unknown. Existing stability tests are effective in detecting structural change, but procedures for identifying timing are imprecise, especially in assessing the stability of variance parameters. We present a likelihood‐based procedure for assigning conditional probabilities to the occurrence of structural breaks at alternative dates. The procedure is effective in improving the precision with which inferences regarding timing can be made. We illustrate parametric and non‐parametric implementations of the procedure through Monte Carlo experiments, and an assessment of the volatility reduction in the growth rate of US GDP. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Coordination, Challenges, and Innovations in 19 National Sustainable Development Strategies

In this article, we study 19 developing and developed countries to identify key challenges, approaches, and innovations in strategic and coordinated action for sustainable development at the national level. We are interested in the institutional fabric of implementing sustainable development. What are governments actually doing to organize the processes required for this? What are the institutional innovations in this regard and what kind of typologies can be identified?Despite some true progress made, our findings indicate that countries are still at the early stages of learning toward effective action for sustainable development. This applies both to developing and developed countries. Key unsolved challenges include (a) coordination with the national budget, (b) coordination with sub-national level sustainable development strategies, and (c) coordination with other national-level strategy processes.     

Contribution to social exchange in public organizations: examining how support,trust, satisfaction,commitment and work outcomes are related

The intent of the research was to examine the relationships between support, trust, satisfaction, commitment and work outcomes. The framework of social exchange theory was used as a guide. The research described in this study replicates in the public sector (N = 704) and previous findings obtained in a study conducted in the private sector. Consistent with the study in private sector, support is related to intention to leave and helping behavior to trust and satisfaction. Results are discussed.     

Contracting Productivity Growth

This paper analyses the interactions between growth and the contracting environment in production. With incompleteness in contracting, viable production relationships between firms and workers, and therefore the profitability of industries, depend on the rates of innovation and growth. The speed at which new innovations arrive in turn depends on the profitability of production, for the usual reasons examined in the endogenous growth literature. We show that these interactions can have important implications which are consistent with observed phenomena in both the micro and macro environments. In particular, we demonstrate that a technological shock (increasing productivity of research) can, through this interaction, lead to a productivity slowdown and a shift in labour market contracts away from firms providing implicit guarantees of lifetime employment and towards shorter-term "contractor" type arrangements. We show the consistency of an increase in the proportion of the labour force under short-term employment, increased relative returns of workers in high-productivity sectors, and increased income inequality, with a productivity slowdown of finite duration.     

White collar unions in Switzerland

Swiss trade unionism differs from that of other countries: lower strike incidence, lower trade union density and organisational segregation of blue and white collar employees. The author reviews and explains these differences and reports on the attitudes towards trade unionism of the German-speaking members of Switzerland's biggest white collar trade union organisation.     

The costs and benefits of eastern enlargement: the impact on the EU and central Europe

Eastern enlargement of the EU is a central pillar in Europe's post-Cold War architecture. Keeping the eastern countries out seriously endangers their economic transition, and economic failure in the east could threaten peace and prosperity in western Europe. The perceived economic costs and benefits will dictate the enlargement's timing. There are four parts to the calculus – the costs and the benefits in the east and in the west. Here we break new ground in estimating the economic benefits of enlargement for east and west using simulations in a global applied general equilibrium model. Our analysis includes a scenario in which joining the EU significantly reduces the risk premium on investment in the east – with resulting huge benefits to the new entrants. We also review the existing literature on the EU budget costs and arrive at a surprisingly well-determined 'consensus' estimate, which we support with a new political economy analysis of the budget. The bottom line is unambiguous and strongly positive: enlargement is a very good deal for both the EU incumbents and the new members.     

Trade costs,quality and the skill premium

We develop a monopolistic competition model with non‐homothetic factor input bundles where increasing quality requires increasing use of skilled workers. As a result more skill abundant countries export higher quality, higher priced goods. Using a multi‐country dataset, we test and confirm the findings in Schott ( 2004 ) of a positive effect of skill abundance on unit values identified with US data. We extend the core model with per unit trade costs leading to the Washington apples effect that goods shipped over larger distance are of higher quality. The combination of high‐quality goods being relatively skill intensive with the Washington apples effect implies that countries at a larger distance from their trading partners display a higher skill premium. Simulating our model, we find that a doubling of distance of a country relative to all its trading partners raises the skill premium in a country by about 1.6%.     

The stability of the Renminbi in the wake of the Asian financial crisis

In the wake of the Asian crisis, a possible devaluation of the Chinese currency has come to the forefront of the academic debate. The currency collapse of the Asian amerging economies has indeed left the Renminbi overvalued relative to its main regional competitors. This article explores the credibility of the ‘no devaluation’ pledge made by the Chinese policymakers.     

Investment coordination and demand complementarities

Summary. This paper establishes necessary conditions for demand complementarity to imply investment coordination failure and explores the welfare implications of coordinated investment. Our main results caution against demand complementarities as a motive for investment coordination. We find that: 1) generally, a strict notion of complementarity (Hicks) is necessary for the existence of an investment coordination problem and 2) that when the problem does exist, coordination lowers social welfare without countervailing sectoral asymmetries. Received: June 19, 1996; revised version: December 5, 1997